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the pollsters' post election explanations include details how they screwed up in their methodologies? I am sure the reasonings will include volatility, momentum, some blurb or idea that sounds good as a "critical moment", some special group that charged to the polls out of the blue like the Light Brigade. However to admit their service is rotten because they didn't know how to plot for new voters(breaking the old models) or a hot contest, or the spectacular rise of a new candidate against entrenched numbers(of questionable solidity)- to admit that- is bad for business.
With one day to go they hope no one will notice they are hedging exactly like fraudulent soothsayers of old, planting themselves firmly in the middle of a decision, but already with explanations to show they knew they might be wildly wrong all along. the only difference between them and Hindu astrologers is that they put a wall of polled people between themselves and the eventual reality so they will be even less responsible.
The single social value polls might have is to measure properly how people voted as a check against the published results of the voting system. None of these pollsters is the least bit interested in protecting that dull, more reliable after check. Instead they would have us enthralled by a steady diet of after spin and pre-guessing with all the rationalization they will later bring to RECONCILING exit poll data to fraudulent totals.
Their whole industry sucks and sucks conceptually. The very meaning of these snapshot opinions doesn't ever sink in. Depending on when and how you ask a question, people who would rather burn a candidate at the stake can be made to seem ready to vote for them. Understanding how people can fill polls with misinterpreted and unreliable data never comes into the public education, because the odd madness of public opinion itself is not easily touched upon. People who flatter themselves the other way, that the nation is moving to or espousing an ideology simply do not want to understand what a mass of aggregate jello people are regarding most things. nailing down the jello for something truly important is not easy. Somewhere, as good astrologers know, wise spin and experience come into play and gives themselves an edge by persuading people the soothsayers know how they will vote. Only an edge because the people, in awe of the wise men, still go about their own affair of making a decision because no one told them their own single independent thought and choice had to match the predictions.
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