Texas Polling: Different samples of minorities and age. Explains IA and ARG!

[adoraz]

Very interesting article:

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/the_demographics_of_texas_poll.php

Here is what I find interesting.

Of the last 7 polls, only 1 has Hillary ahead (and by a 4 pt margin). I was trying to figure this out, and I have.



That one is InsiderAdvantage (2/27/08). They are ranked second highest in Clinton's 2 main groups: Latinos and people over 65.

Arg has had their Latino and Black population closer than any other group, so that is why Obama is favored a little more.


These tabs I think are huge and extremely important, as they can tell us a lot more.

What do you all think is the most likely scenario?

Why are Latinos getting represented so much more than in 04? Why are blacks in most cases represented less? Also, in most of them the non Democrats aren't being represented as much as they are in 2004 which I find pretty odd.


I know that we will have to wait for the exit polls to know for sure, but don't a lot of these estimations seem off to anyone?

Just thought it was interesting, and it explains ARG and IA.

ARG may actually be closest if they correctly represented the black and latino populations.