Kerry leads Bush in Ohio by 2 point , Wisconsin by 5 poin in latest polls.

[Nicholas_J]

Wisconsin likely voters Mar 25

George W. Bush 43%
John Kerry 46%
Ralph Nader 4%
Undecided 7%



Bush leads among Republicans, Kerry leads among Democrats, with independents split between Bush and Kerry.

Party

Republicans (31%)
Democrats(33%)
Independents (36%)

George W. Bush 82% 7% 43%
John Kerry 8% 85% 42%
Ralph Nader 1% 2% 7%
Undecided 9% 6% 8%

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/wig/

Ohio Poll | 3/10-22

Respondents 632

MoE 3.9%

George Bush 44%

John Kerry 46%

Ralph Nader 5%


http://www.ipr.uc.edu/PDF/OhioPoll/2004_Prez_032604.pdf


The most interesting thing about this poll is the degree of polarization between Democrats and Republicans. This poll is comfirming some other late polls which indicate that the percentage of Democrats who are choosing to vote for a Republicans candidate, and the percentage of Republicns who are choosing to vote for a Democratic candidate are at an all time low. At the time of the New Hampshire Primary the percentage of crossover votes was that 10 percent of the Democrats would vote for Bush, and 12 Percent of Republicans woulde choose Kerry, while now the percentage of crossover voting is has dropped in a number of polls with Bush getting around 7 perccent Democrat support, Kery getting eight percent Republican support.

Nader voters split among both Republicans and Democrats with 1 percent voting Repubs voting for Nader 2 percent Demos for Nader, 7 percent independents.

Nader is currently a spoiler to a degree, as in most cases right now, without Nader,Kerry would have a clear lead. Fortunately Nadders campaign does not look like it is doing very well, far worse than it did when it had Green Party backing in 2000. Kerry is actually doing better in many of the states that Gore won in 2000 than Gore won them by in 2000.

Right now Kerry has maintained leads in five of the largest battleground states, and if this can be held, Kerry now is ahead in enough states that if the election was held today, Kerry would win the presidency the same way Bush won in 2000. Through the electoral college:

With Kerry ahead in Democratic leaning states Like Washington, Oregon, California, Iowa and New York and Illinois, states where he is moderately ahead and is exptected to stay ahead, which have 125 electoral votes,
Massachusetts, Connecticut, Iowa, West Virginia, and Rhode Island and Maryland with 40 electoral votes (states that have traditionally frequently gone Democrat), There are 165 votes for Kerry in these states.


With Kerry in tied with Bush, but being the candidate who is slightly in the lead in and who has maintained that position in all or the majority of polls taken in states like Wisconsin 10 EV, Ohio 20, Michigan 17 EV, Minnesota 10 EV, Florida 27 EV and Pennsylvania 21 EV, wins in these states, with the states already leaning or solidly supporting Kerry, gives Kerry a total of 270 EV at the present.

Towards the end of the campaign, I suspect that Nader will be winnowed out, and unable to qualify to get on the ballots in more states than happened in 2000, as well as a the likelihood that Democrats begin to strongly suggest that Democrats who choose to vote for Nader are likely to see a repeat of 2000, I think that Nader will pick up in the percentage of votes in the next few months, but eventually start tracking downward. Also political pollster are only beginning to track the percentage of Republicans who are choosing to vote for Nader, and anticipate that this percentage may rise.


Recent updates in states that eith lean or are firmly Republican give Bush 95 electoral votes in 11 states, with 21 states in which no polling has been done and which have 150 electoral votes. If Bush were to win all of those states now, and Kerry to win the states in which are leaning dmeocrat, and those which he leads Bush would recieve 150 EV plus 95 EV or 245 EV.

Leaving New Jersey with 15 Electoral votes, no polls having been recently done, but in the last polls done, months ago, leaning towards Bush againt a generic Democratic candidate 41 to 38 percent.

Which would give Bush 260 EV currently.

Though the only poll taken in West Virginia have Kerry and Bush in a tie, other indicators in that state indicate that it is leaning more towards a Democratic Nominee than a Republican.

Going to be close no matter what. Without Nader, it right now it would be less close, and more certain for Kerry.

One sign that Nader may not do as well as in 2000 is that he is not doing anywhere as well in Florida, in which he did very well in 2000.

[DaveSZ]

1. Independents

That's where Nader hurts Kerry because it pulls more liberal independents from Kerry than conservative independents from Bush regardless of the fact very few Dems will vote for Bush.

[jsw_81]

2. There's no way Bush can win without Ohio

I hope Kerry opens his campaign with a huge rally in Columbus. We take Ohio and "President" Bush will be heading back to Texas next January.

[Leilani]

3. Good analyis!

I played around last nite with an electoral vote counter, & yes, it will be very close.

I tried many different scenarios. But after I finished each time, Kerry MUST win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, & Minnesota. If he can take those, he has enough pretty reliable states that he will win. And that scenario gives Florida & entire South to Bush, except W.Va, which is south or border state.