When did merely winning Texas and/or Ohio become enough for Team Hillary?

[Joe the Revelator]

Up until 2 days ago, smart money said that Hillary needed to win Texas and Ohio by LARGE margins to even think about continuing the race. Now her supporters are beginning to move the goal posts again, saying that if Hillary merely wins one state by one vote she's back, or the most amazing theory I've heard, she can lose one of these states and still justify moving ahead with her campaign.

What are some of you smoking? Even her husband is on the record saying that if she doesn't win Texas AND Ohio she is done. The math says she has to win these states BIG for them to matter.

She's not going to pull it off.

[babylonsister]

1. These guys agree with you:

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/02/28/hillary-s-never-ending-math-equation.aspx

Hillary's Never Ending Math Equation

Marc Ambinder runs the delegate numbers--making a number of generous assumptions for Clinton in the process (such as all of her pledged superdelegates sticking with her)--and her "path to victory" doesn't look very likely. Bottom-line:

If Florida and Michigan's delegations are seated fully to her advantage, and if she wins in Ohio by 65% and wins in Texas by 65%, and all other percentages hold, she can win the nomination.

Yikes.

--Jason Zengerle

[Joe the Revelator]

2. Which is why i give SOME credence to the theory that she drops out tomorrow

[jenmito]

9. In other words, she'd have to pull off everything OBAMA has managed to pull off...

from a weaker position. Not gonna happen.

[AtomicKitten]

3. Her new firewall is in Puerto Rico!

[babylonsister]

4. I can't wait that long; this is exhausting! nt

[AtomicKitten]

5. It is indeed.

[KittyWampus]

6. this forum needs a lolcat thread

[Alexander]

7. That kitty is really cute.

[Kittycat]

21. That's me in about 30min.

[AtomicKitten]

23. That's me after my second Margarita!

[Mme. Defarge]

34. What a glorius

photo!

[MannyGoldstein]

17. Her New Firewall Is 2012

No, I'm not joking.

[Diane R]

22. And I worry what she'll do to sabatoge the Obama candidacy to position herself for 2012.

[AtomicKitten]

25. If she sabotages it, and she's on track as giving it her best shot, there will be no 2012 for her.

[karynnj]

29. That's just crazy

If she couldn't win coming in after people built her up as inevitable and laid the ground work with articles of her humbleness in her early Senate days to her becoming an influential member, with Bill Clinton turned into more of a rock star than he ever was in the 1990s, how can she gain momentum for a second run.

The Clinton people who wrote many books that called the Gore and Kerry runs bad, now have a run that is hundreds of times worse than either of those runs. Not to mention, that both of these men have far more accomplishments than she has and neither of their runs went into the gutter as hers has.

[Cha]

33. That's right..I forgot about that

little tidbit! Was it carville, for one, who came out and said Kerry ran a bad campaign? Karma's knockin' on hilaryland's door.

[karynnj]

41. Carville and Begala wrote one together

and McAuliffe wrote on as well.

Both books have a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking - much of which doesn't convince me. They use the fact that you can never know how the road not taken would have worked.

Take for instance the convention - they argue that it should have attacked Bush more - even though Bill Clinton's attacked GHWB even less in 1992. Not to mention that in 1992, the media praised Clinton's hopeful convention and bashed the nasty GHWB one - remember Marilyn Quayle and Pat Buchanan. In 2004, they intitally praised Kerry's positive inspiring convention, then when Bush had his convention that exceeded his dad's in nastiness - where official Republican delegates mocked the Purple Heart, they then praised Bush/Cheney and bashed Kerry for not having had a convention where they all bashed Bush rather than defined Kerry.

In think that had Kerry had a negative convention - the Republicans would have immediately said he was too nasty and unlikable to be President and that they were unfair attacks against a President bearing the burden of leading a country at war. Their convention would then have been the deification of Bush. Kerry would have lost many who had as recently as a year before supported Bush. I can't prove that I am right and they are wrong, but I know people I respect who are still angry that Kerry said it was the wrong war and not a war of last resort and spoke of the many errors. Those were people he could not win, because you couldn't win if you couldn't prove you would be a better CIC and you can't prove that without criticizing what was done. There likely were others, who had bonded with Bush after 911 and thought he acted in good faith, but saw Kerry was right that Bush was not running the war well. Some may have even agreed it was the wrong war, but it was likely more important to them who would be better going forward.

In Begala's and Carville's case, they also accuse Kerry of things that they share some blame on. They argue he didn't sufficiently get his message out. But they were 2 of the very few Democrats on cable TV and they wasted there time on snarky attacks on Bush (convincing only to those already not voting for him) and whining about Kerry not being Clinton. Bill Clinton was not my first choice in 1992 and I am not a pundit, but when he was nominated I got his book and read it and argued for him based on those things I agreed with. I seriously did not here either of them say one positive thing about Kerry's Senate career, his vision or his plans. I doubt they read anything on him or took the time to look at his web site. It was easier to whine that he was not Bill Clinton.

[texas_indy]

8. IMO, She could lose ever state from here on and she will not drop out!

She's in for the whole trip and will fight for the nomination no matter how many delegates she has.

She will fight for it even if Obama has the number of delegates needed for nomination already wrapped up.

She is not going quietly.




Texas is Obama country! VIVA OBAMA!! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0fd-MVU4vtU

[donheld]

37. "lose ever state from here on"

Talk about humiliating. Any other candidate, if that were to happen, would hide under the bed for months. From the long time front runner to the long time loser. God that would hurt.

[TexasObserver]

10. When? It happened when Team Clinton realized she will lose Texas.

And if they lose Ohio, too, she'll start talking about Michigan, and Florida, and superdelegates, and how prepared she imagines herself to be for the role of Chief Executive.

[Just-plain-Kathy]

31. The media has been preparing us for weeks that super delegates will call this race.

I wonder how Americans will react to delegates nominating Clinton after knowing how much more popular Obama is? Would we all think the election was being stolen again by a corporatist?

I keep thinking, even the GOP knows how unpopular these wars are. Why would they allow McCain to become their front runner? I admit I’m cynical. I just can’t imagine that the criminals who stole the last two presidential elections would give up their power so easily.

[TexasObserver]

35. the superdelegates are not going to give it to Hillary. ain't happenin'.

They have to go home.

[EndElectoral]

11. Hilary leads pretty big in PA. If she gets Edward's delegate, FL or MI seated. She'll win.

[EndElectoral]

12. That said. I'm hoping she loses.

[Joe the Revelator]

14. 5 points is pretty big? 26 delegates is enough to tip the nomination?

These are the things you have to believe if you support Hillary?

Texas and Ohio, or she doesn't go. Period.

[earthlover]

18. he lead in PA has shrunk drastically!

If she holds, it won't be much of a delegate pick up.

[Divernan]

24. Her 2/14 lead of 16 points had shrunk to 6 points by 2/27

The PA primary isn't until April 22nd, and Obama hasn't even started campaigning/advertising in the state at all yet. Her lead in PA is shrinking faster than it has in the other states. If she hasn't given up the ghost before the PA primary, I think Obama will win the state by the biggest margin yet.

Volunteers - no paid staff here yet - have already set up about 160 events to GOTV, register voters and raise funds for Obama. Clinton's supporters in PA have done squat.

[karynnj]

30. I don't think Edwards can "give" her his delegates

I think his choice is only to free them or not on the first ballot. Does anyone know.

[LiberalAndProud]

32. They are free agents. Some have comitted already.

[karynnj]

39. Thanks

[yourguide]

13. The other states dont count.

rofl

[Lerkfish]

15. she will hold on, hoping for superdelegate magic, or Mich FLa magic

until the bitter end. Thus I predict. And the end WILL be bitter

[sandnsea]

16. I saw that too

I don't know what the hell the media thinks they're doing. I fully expect to see her head popping in and out at the inauguration, insisting that we're all moving too quickly and would really want her if we would just stop being such petulant children and stuff.

[earthlover]

19. TX and OH are very big for Obama....here's why....

I agree that Hillary needs to win BOTH and by LARGE MARGINGS. But Hillary is Hillary. She would be hurting the party's chances of victory in november by continuing her race for another month or two....but in her mind she would be the nominee in 2012 if obama loses to mccain. If obama wins, she would have to wait until 2016. And she would be almost as old as mccain then. So obama being hurt against mccain is not a bad thing for hillary.

So hillary will stay in this thing as long as she isn't forced to quit.

Ohio and Texas voters could do us all a favor by making Hillary's cling to power seem ridiculous. She needs to be shown that it would be ridiculous to continue, otherwise she stays.

[Drunken Irishman]

20. I understand her campaign doing it, but I don't get why the media is allowing it.

Had Giuliani stayed in after Florida, I doubt the media would suggest he had a chance at winning the nomination, even though the delegate count wasn't mathmatically impossible for him. Yet the story prior to Florida was he HAD TO WIN. He lost and he dropped out out. If Clinton splits Tuesday, by winning Ohio and Rhode Island, but losing Texas and Vermont, how is that a win for her campaign? How can anyone spin that as a victory?

But the media will, they'll say she deserves to go to PA and if she loses PA, they'll say she deserves to go to another state and then another and she'll be close to 200 delegates down and they'll say she deserves to go to the convention.

Of course Obama can end this all by winning BOTH Ohio and Texas. He does that and no amount of spin will work.

[Johnny__Motown]

26. Since they put the goal post on the back of a truck and drove off with it

[workinclasszero]

27. They are just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic (nt)

[ProSense]

28. This just in

Video: "The Daily Show" Reports From "Anti-Hillary HQ" To Explain Press Bias


Oh sorry, wrong bias! Doesn't quite explain the current media spin.

[Eurobabe]

36. Amazing race, isn't it?

I'm hoping that Tuesday is the "DECIDER."

[BringBigDogBack]

38. kick

[K Gardner]

40. Hillary's Pledge to Texas: WE WILL PICK THE NOMINEE IN TEXAS

An hour after the end of the CNN Democratic Presidential Debate in Austin, Hillary Clinton spoke briefly to Democrats at an after-party in a ballroom of the downtown Hyatt. "I'm going to pledge to you we are not only going to pick a nominee right here in Texas but we are going to lay the groundwork for a great campaign this fall where we will go from one end of this state to the other making the case that it is time for the Democrats once again to get back into office, and you heard me say it before, it took a Clinton to clean up after the first Bush and it will take another Clinton for this one."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mayhill-fowler/texas-dems-desire-for-pa_b_87943.html

(second thoughts, Hillary?)

[Independent-Voter]

42. Veruca will never be satisfied, petulant person that she is.

[JVS]

43. When she realized that she wasn't going to win big

[Joe the Revelator]

44. Kick

[Obamaniac]

45. Because Hillary doesn't seem to understand that this election is about...

...winning delegates. It's not one giant boost to her ego.

Let her go on and let her keep losing. I think they figure they finally have enough money in the bank to remain competitive and they want a mulligan. They are Clinton's after all, the rules don't apply to them the way they apply to everyone else.