Breaking: New Poll shows Senator Obama pulling away in Democratic national race

[Tropics_Dude83]

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows Barack Obama opening a nine-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination. Obama now earns support from 49% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters while Clinton attracts 40% (see recent daily results). Other polling data released today provides more good news for Obama--the national frontrunner continues to gain ground in Texas and now has a slight lead in that critical state.

Recent polling data shows that Clinton is still leading in Ohio, but her lead is smaller than before. The former First Lady Clinton leads in Rhode Island while Obama has the edge in Vermont. Looking down the road a bit, Clinton has only a four-point lead in Pennsylvania. In reviewing the last Clinton-Obama debate, Froma Harrop looks at the health care issue and concludes “It would make more sense to skip all this reliance on private coverage and go to a Medicare-style government plan paid for through taxes.”

Same group has it 48-44% Obama in TX.

It's all but over folks.

Edit: No Candidate has had this big of a lead in Rasmussen since before Iowa. I believe Senator Clinton led by 7-8 a week before February 5th but never more than that.

[MadBadger]

1. Can we stop with the all but over Shit?

Though I think Momentum is clearly with hiim, I dont think relying on Rasmussen, we can declare her dead. I still have only seen one poll with a very questionble background that has Obama ahead in Ohio.

[mckeown1128]

2. I am sorry but is over if you look at the delegate math...

It is HIGHLY unlikely that she will be able to catch up to Obama...even if she wins Texas and Ohio by 10 points each. She HAS to win by more the 20 points each to win.

[Tropics_Dude83]

3. He's ahead in TX

And she probably will have AT BEST a 5 delegate net gain from Ohio.

I have always been hesitant to declare Hillary dead but as of now, I really really think that her campaign is over. *Knock on wood* three times.

Barring an Edwards endorsement of HRC, an Obama major gigantic monster scandal, a HRC moment that has 20 times the connective power of her NH diner moment, it is over.

[cali]

4. What is her path to the nomination?

Seriously, this is not like NH. If Senator Clinton doesn't win both OH and TX by fairly good margins, she has no way of going forward. It's simply not the real world to ignore that we're reaching the end of this process.

[Tropics_Dude83]

5. Also

The fact that HRC's Pennsylvania firewall is collapsing makes things extremely difficult for her.

[MadBadger]

6. If she wins both, no matter by how much, I think she moves forward.

She would probably win 3 of 4 on Tuesday, and may be able to change the storyline.

Look, I think he will win TX, but I still see her winning OH. I just dont think we should be using a Rasmussen poll as proof thats its all over.

[Tropics_Dude83]

7. Oh If HRC was ahead in TX

I'd be the first to declare her alive, but she simply isn't.

[MadBadger]

9. The polls show Obama with about a 2-5 point lead...which falls within the MOE of the polls.

So though Obama is ahead, i think with that small of a lead, anything can happen.

[grantcart]

12. she could win Texas by 10 points and it would not effect the campaign

except on a psychological basis

Even their own supporters are acknowledging this reality




Schumer also suggested that the current system of awarding pledged delegates is flawed. "The delegate counts are so close, and you can win a state by quite a lot and you still don't win the delegates by quite a lot,” he said. "Maybe that's a flawed system. But that will be for the next election, not this one.

"I think if you win a district 55 to 45," he said. "The delegates shouldn't be three to three. Yes, I think proportional representation makes some sense but they sort of overdid it."


http://www.observer.com/2008/schumer-avoiding-self-destructive-end-clinton-vs-obama

[Tropics_Dude83]

8. Gallup has Obama up 12/CBS/NYT has him up 16-n/t

[MadBadger]

10. States are what matters

Look, I think Obama is going to win this thing, but I do not think its wise to declare her dead. Not yet at least.

[Usrename]

14. Here's the national trend.

http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Dem-Pres-Primary.php



Texas



Ohio



http://www.pollster.com/

Even in Ohio where Clinton leads, there doesn't seem to be any stopping the Obama momentum. There are no undecided voters left, so as he trends up, she will by necessity trend down by an equal and opposite amount.

[MindMatter]

24. I thought Rhode Island was the new firewall

When does Guam vote? That would make a nice firewall. Plenty of water.

[Adelante]

16. I think we're getting ahead of ourselves, too

He's got the momentum and that's all we know.

[THUNDER HANDS]

18. what more evidence do you want

I swear, Obama will be accepting the nomination at the convention and some people will still be like, "but let's not call this thing just yet."

[MadBadger]

21. For all we know, there could be some emotional moments that change the game

lol...but I'm serious, the reason Obama lost NH was because of things that happened in the last 1-3 days of the campaign. There is always the chance of a surprise to change the game, and until the night of March 4th do I think we can declare somebody done or not.

[THUNDER HANDS]

22. that was New Hampshire

which is retail politics and not prone to momentum swings.

It's also been an outlier for the entire campaign.

[MadBadger]

23. What happened in NH was not because of retail politics

Obama was up and momentum shifted because of one or two moments in front of a national audience.

[L0oniX]

11. She has to win at least 65% in TX and OH just to get even.

If she does win by any small margin she will stubbornly drag this out which will be unfortunate for the Dem party.

[Araxen]

13. We need to win both to end it all

If she wins even one she will continue on I bet. So losing both is out of the answer.

[Adelante]

15. whoa - Clinton has only a four-point lead in Pennsylvania

I hadn't realized it could be this close in PA.

[Windy]

17. Razzy was wrong on Cally... Obama supporters need to WORK until the polls close on Tuesday!!!

Do NOT take anything for granted!!! Please!!!

[FrenchieCat]

19. Agree! Always, always remember New Hampshire.......

and understand that it ain't over till after the polls have closed. We've got an eternity to go on the political timeclock, and Barack knows this. We should discuss things accordingly!

[Alter Ego]

20. I'll say it's over when the last vote is counted in Texas and Ohio

and Vermont and Rhode Island and whatever the hell else votes on March 4.

And even then, maybe not.

None of this "it's over" crap. Our mindset--until he wins the nomination--must be "He's down 30."