Senate? Maybe a silly question.

[Chuletas]

Besides the DSCC, does anybody have any idea thru looking at polling sites or through knowing your own state, what the prospect of taking back the senate is in the GE? If a person from a nice Democratic state like Massachusetts were to be able to send a couple of bucks where's the best shot?

[ButterflyBlood]

1. Our two best chances for a pickup

Illinois and Alaska. But check out www.dcpoliticalreport.com

[Padraig18]

24. Barak Obama (IL) needs your help.

He looks like a good shot at becoming our next senator, but faces a multi-millionaire Republican, Jack Ryan.

[whistle]

2. Support all democrats with whatever you can afford...

...the re-thugs and big corporations will go right on jacking up the Republicans because they know they'll give them what they want. I can't afford much so my contributions are going to Kerry's campaign.:kick:

[mobuto]

3. Taking back the Senate?

ON EDIT: I forgot to answer your question. I think the place your dollars would have the biggest impact would probably be Alaska. The state is small and poor, and the amount spent there will be likewise small. Therefore your dollars will go further there than they will elsewhere. And we have a real good chance of getting Ted Stevens elected.

The odds are there, but they're slim. That being said, Democrats have a real good chance at pickups in a number of states:

Alaska
Colorado
Illinois
Oklahoma

In the unlikely event that Pat Toomey beats Arlen Spectre in Pennsylvania, we'll have an excellent chance of picking PA up.

We're almost certainly going to lose Zell Miller's seat in Georgia.

We might also lose Fritz Hollings' seat in South Carolina, but Inez Tenenbaum, our candidate there, is looking somewhat stronger than expected.

There's a very good chance we'll lose Graham's seat in Florida.

There's a good chance we'll lose Edwards' seat in North Carolina, although that's far from certain.

Byron Dorgan may have trouble in North Dakota.

Tom Daschle will definitely have trouble in South Dakota.

Barbara Boxer will probably win California, but its going to be tough and its going to be close. If Bush starts to pull ahead nationally, she could very well lose.

Patty Murray will have trouble in Washington.

Ron Wyden might have some trouble in Oregon.

Russ Feingold always has some trouble in Wisconsin.

Is it mathematically possible that we'd take back the Senate? Absolutely. In a number of key races, we really do have the edge. But its really far from certain, and I think what's most likely is that we see no net change, or actually lose a net seat.

[jsw_81]

11. Murray and Wyden are safe

I live in Washington and believe me, Murray is going to win a landslide. The Republicans like to portray her as stupid, but she's extremely popular with female voters in this very blue state. Same for Wyden; the Republican candidate down there is a complete joke.

[mobuto]

12. I sure hope you're right

I do like Patty Murray, its just my understanding that the polls aren't looking all that certain. I put Wyden down just because Oregon's something of a swing state.

[jsw_81]

21. Oregon is definitely a swing state

And if the Republicans down there had any brain cells, they could probably take Wyden out. Luckily for us, however, the fundamentalist nuts have taken over the Oregon Republican party and they have once again decided to support an unelectable joke of a candidate.

[Darkamber]

13. I hope you are right...

I'm in Washington too and I think she is safe, but I've never seen the Republicans coming out in such force. They really want to get rid of her.

Nice to see Bush wasting his money on ads here though. The radio is full of them and the TV. Though, nice to see Media Group putting on ads that are anti-Bush.

[ButterflyBlood]

16. Dorgan is safe

When I was home for spring break I read in the paper the GOP was still trying to find a candidate. Right now the best they can come up with is a high school basketball coach. Don't worry.

[RichM]

19. FYI: Ted Stevens is a Republican. (a REAL Republican, not a DINO)

You apparently thought he was a Democrat.

[mobuto]

22. Um, er, um, OOPS

I was on the phone when I typed that. I was thinking of Tony Knowles. Yes Ted Stevens is a very bad guy. And since he's already in the Senate, it seems unlikely that he'd run for a second Senate seat in November.

[IronLionZion]

4. We'll lose Kerry's seat and Zell Miller's

and most likely John Edward's. Man, a lot of Dems are retiring this year. Graham and Breaux are retiring.

[mobuto]

5. I hope we lose Kerry's seat!

We'll only lose Kerry's seat if he's elected President, which sure would be nice. I understand the Massachusetts legislature is considering legislation which would empower it, rather than the Governor, to choose his successor should he resign from the Senate. The Governor, of course, is right-wing dingus Mitt Romney whereas the legislature is overwhelmingly Democratic.

[IronLionZion]

7. true

Having Kerry as pres is worth it. It would be nice to take the Senate too because Clinton had a rough time with the Repub-controlled Senate and house during his terms.

[ButterflyBlood]

17. We can't lose Zell Miller's seat

in order to lose something you have to currently hold it. Therefore, saying that we'll lose Zell Miller's seat implies that we already hold it.

[leyton]

28. The most we can hope for there is that...

if we don't retake the Senate and if we don't lose so many seats that we lose a seat on each committee as well, if a Republican wins in Georgia, he will crowd a few Republicans here and there off of committees and we can have a real Democrat holding the minority committee assignments taken up by Miller.

[IronLionZion]

6. I would love for Joe Hoeffel to beat Arlen Specter in PA

but the real big fish will be defeating Santorum in two years. What an asshole

[Chuletas]

8. thanks!

Good stuff.

If Romney selects himself as Senator you'll have the pleasure of the teflon guv for yourselves and we'll have a kinko's self publishing Lt. Governor in charge here in Mass.

[newyawker99]

23. Hi Chuletas!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[mobuto]

10. Well, Hoeffel would have a real good shot

of beating Pat Toomey. So contribute to HIS campaign!

[IronLionZion]

15. If I wasn't registered Dem, I'd vote for Toomey

in the primaries. oh well, just in case Joe loses, I'd rather have flip-flopping Specter in there instead of that right-winger Toomey.

[ButterflyBlood]

18. That's what I'm worried about

Toomey's way easier to beat, but if he actually won, he'd be a LOT worse than Specter. Pennsylvania already has it bad enough with Rick Santorum.

[Freddie Stubbs]

29. Hoeffel doesn't have much of a chance against Specter, but

Specter may not be the Republican nominee. He is facing a tough primary challenge from Congressman Pat Toomey. At least one union is urging it's members to switch parties to vote for Specter in the primary.

Toomey is very conservative, and would probably be the underdog in a race with Hoeffel. The primary is April 27.

[jsw_81]

9. It's not a silly question at all

It's crucial that we take back the Senate. Without it, Kerry is going to have a real hard time getting anything done should he be elected. The way I see it, there are four states where we have a good chance of picking up a Senate seat (with our candidate's name):

1. Illinois -- Barack Obama
2. Alaska -- Tony Knowles
3. Colorado -- Ken Salazar
4. Oklahoma -- Brad Carson

If we can win all four of these, hold the open seats in Florida and Louisiana, and defeat just one Republican incumbent somewhere else (e.g. Specter in Pennsylvania), the Senate will be ours even if we lose North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia.

[TomSeaverr]

14. They

have a good chance of picking up Colorado and keeping NC and SC seats.

[Dookus]

20. it largely depends on coattails....

If Kerry wins big, we could take the Senate. Otherwise, we may gain a seat, or may lose a few.

[DaveSZ]

25. It may help us

To have a Southerner on the ticket like Edwards or Clark even if they can't win in the South with Kerry at the top.

[mndemocrat_29]

26. That's a great question

Of our challengers, we've got an excellent shot in Alaska, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Illinois. I agree that Alaska would be a worthy spot to donate (since it is a poor state), though any of these four would be excellent locales. If Pat Toomey wins the PA Primary, or if Specter comes out severely poor or bruised, Joe Hoeffel will be running an even race (which should help in this presidential year where Kerry should be winning PA by a larger margin than last time). Also, Missouri, which could become close, could use the money. The DSCC keeps bragging this one up, and Kit Bond recently had a poll showing him under 50 percent.

As for our vulnerable seats/incumbents-Zell's seat is lost in Georgia (it does look like we have a self-funding candidate, however). South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida (though I'd wait until the end of the primary, since we aren't sure of our nominee, though it will hopefully be Betty Castor), and Louisiana are all open seats. Louisiana has shown in the last couple of years a willingness to send Democrats to Congress, and this election should be no exception, with Chris John/John Kennedy being the next senator. Florida will be close (hopefully we'll be competing against Bill McCollum), but that state will go to whomever wins the presidential election. South/North Carolina are both going to be close, but we definitely have a shot in both, but we'll need money. Our only really vulnerable incumbent at this point is Tom Daschle, though he should be able to pull this out.

I'd recommend sending money to either Tony Knowles in Alaska, Erskine Bowles in North Carolina (who leads Burr in NC, but doesn't nearly have as much money), or Inez Tenenbaum in South Carolina, though any of our competitive states would be excellent investments.

[Ficus]

27. Grassley is safe here

even our candidate (Art Small) admitted in the Des Moines Register today that he wouldn't win. sheesh.