Howard Dean on MSNBC: The primary will not go until Denver

[Coexist]

First on McCain and the FEC:
"he doesn't think the reform applies to him."

"he needs to follow the law, it cost us a lot of money to get our candidates on the ticket in many states."

"he has violated the law, it is sophistry to say they never used matching funds."

"this is a question about John McCain's integrity"


Dropping a bomb on the Primary being over soon:

"superdelegates are already shifting, someone will get to 2025 soon."

[babylonsister]

1. He was great; a youtube on that is forthcoming soon, I hope. nt

[Ichingcarpenter]

10. He brought out a letter from the FEC on his own campaign run

that proved his stuff was legal and McCain's wasn't when the Moderator
said that you were doing the same thing that McCain just did



He was great don't miss it.

[Coexist]

2. Dean just dropped a bombshell! He believes the primary will be over before Denver

he said that superdelegates were already shifting, and along with pledged delegates, one candidate would reach the 2025 soon.

[ericgtr]

4. That's worthy of a new topic IMO

:)

[Coexist]

6. I'm fresh out - please go ahead and make one

I was so thrown, I had trouble typing it.

[ericgtr]

7. Okay, what's the source exactly?

Just heard it on tv, right? Please give as much info as you have and I will get it posted up.

[Coexist]

9. MSNBC - I just edited the OP, there was still time - let me know if

that sums it up ok.

[ericgtr]

13. Excellent, I saw that

thanks.

K&R :kick:

[K Gardner]

20. I was watching him and I missed that b/o the phone ! Damn.. thanks for catching it !

[Mooney]

3. Brilliant

Howard Dean is afraid of nobody.

[NJSecularist]

5. Thank goodness Howard Dean is the DNC chairman

Instead of gutless McAuliffe.

[last1standing]

11. Guess who'll be the DNC chair if Clinton gets the nod?

If it's not McAuliffe it'll be someone just like him. :(

[saracat]

17. I am sorry I supported him. He is partisan and had handled FL and MI badly.

He has not allowed the Democratic process to go forward and had interfered.He isn't better than MacAuliffe and that is disappointing. Sorry.He has prsued his own personal agenda instead of being neutral.

[JackORoses]

29. now that you have taken the Hillarite oath, you are anti-Dean as well?

what a shame...

[saracat]

31. I do not like what Howard has done regarding the primaries. I supported him and the 50 state

strategy.I still support that. I have taken no "oath" to anyone. I support Hillary because she represent me more than Obama who doesn't represent me at all.

[madfloridian]

32. He followed the rules about primaries...all the way.

It is only Hillary's supporters who are blaming him and not the two states.

[saracat]

36. I agree but he didn't handle it well. He unfortunately gets to take the blame as Chair

because it was his job to somehow control the states and prevent them from going off the rails. Like it or not, that was his job and he couldn't pull it off.

[madfloridian]

41. It is the Hilllary people who are the only ones angry.

.

[saracat]

54. I am actualluy an Edwards supporter. And I am not happy. And I wasn't happy before JRE suspended

and I am not happy with Howards intervention in that issue either but heck we don't have to agree.

[JackORoses]

44. Howard didn't cause the FL/MI fiasco, the elected officials of those states did

I'm curious, how is it exactly that Hillary represents you more?

[Independent-Voter]

33. You want to bitch about the FL and MI elected representatives, as they are the ones responsible

of course, that reality thing might be a little much for you.

[DemVet]

49. A little much?

Yeah, I'd say disenfranchised voters is "a little much." Remember, it's the people that are being punished, not the state party bigwigs who made the decision.

[LisaM]

37. I agree with you. He screwed up on Michigan and Florida

Both of which are swing states and both of which will be desperately needed in the GE.

[Big Blue Marble]

38. The states screwed up themselves.

They had the choice to follow or break the rules. They did what they did.
In the end, it will not make any difference. They will be seated by Obama.

[madfloridian]

42. Both states wanted to be big shots.

And they lost.

[smiley_glad_hands]

53. Yawn. eom

[tabasco]

35. You can say that again!

Give 'em hell, Doc!

[last1standing]

8. Can you imagine how different things would be if he were president right now?

He's followed through on everything he's had the power to do and it's always been in the interests of both the party and the people. I hope we have the chance to fix our mistake someday.

[Coexist]

12. I love him. He makes tough, no nonsense decisions and sticks by them

no matter who hollers.

[last1standing]

15. And the whole Clinton machine comes after him every time he does.

I was willing to let that slide for quite some time, but not now. I'll never support anyone from the Clinton machine in a primary. We need Democrats, not Clintonistas.

[UALRBSofL]

14. The thing is he is wrong. Obama can't get the 2025 delegates before convention

even with the superdelegates. So why he made that statement without counting the delegates is false information and misleading the general public.

[9119495]

16. Regular delgates can switch in many states as they approach

county, state, and district level conventions. I don't know if that is what he was refering to but it is possible that is what he was referring to.

[Coexist]

18. maybe if something big happens, all the supers will switch

to get this over with?? I don't know, from RCP:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

Delegate Count
Delegates Obama Clinton
Total - 1375 1279

Super- 795 182 241

Pledged Delegates - 2272 1193 1038

Right now they have Obama needing 650 to secure the nomination.

[UALRBSofL]

22. That's the thing if your numbers are correct

I don't see him getting 650 delegates before the convention.

[Coexist]

25. if they split OH and TX, and splitting RI and VT along the polls,

he gets about 184.

So then he needs 466. There are 372 unpledged Superdelegates.

It could happen.

[stahbrett]

27. McCain doesn't technically have enough delegates, but he's still the de facto nominee

Obama will be the de facto nominee as well, as soon as Hillary drops out (or suspends her campaign, which seems to be the cool thing to do these days).

[Big Blue Marble]

40. Just watch!

It will happen. It is happening behind the scene right now. I think Dean knows more than you do.
We will go to Denver as a unified party and it will be beautiful to behold.

[rox63]

48. And some super delegates have already jumped ship from Clinton to Obama

So it is doable for Obama to get all the needed delegates.

[bicentennial_baby]

21. Pledged delegates can switch too!

[mohc]

23. How's that?

Obama has around a 150 delegate lead in pledged delegates, and is quickly closing the gap in superdelegates. Aside from the 26 delegates Edwards won, all the other delegates are going to Clinton or Obama. Unless you think Obama will end up leading Clinton by less than 26 delegates, a number he already exceeds, he will have over 2025 delegates.

[mohc]

34. To be specific

Using numbers from The Green Papers

Total Delegates
Available 1471
Obama 1303.5
Clinton 1247.5

Obama needs another 721.5 delegates to win the nomination before the convention, out of the remaining 1471. That is just a little less than half the outstanding delegates. He has won over 60% of the pledged delegates since SuperTuesday, and most likely that number will only go higher as his nomination seems more inevitable. And on the superdelegate side things could be more lopsided. Obama is not just winning outstanding delegates, but converting Clinton superdelegates to his side. He should easily be able to win over 650 of the remaining 1088 pledged delegates, putting him very close to the nomination without a single new superdelegate. But at that point the superdelegates would almost certainly fall in line behind him, and all but the most hardened Clinton superdelegates will switch to his side. Unless something unexpected happens he should end up with around 2500 or so delegates by the time Puerto Rico finishes the final contest.

[tekisui]

24. Obama certainly can.

Obama has now 1360+/- total delegates.

1,088 Pledged Delegates remain, and 400+/- SuperD's have yet to announce.

He needs only 665 of the remaining 1488 left.

[DemVet]

51. No...

...only Hillary can end it before the convention. These polls and tallies of how many super delegates are going to vote which way are meaningless until actual votes are cast...at the convention.

[DemVet]

50. True...

a formal decision can't be made until the delegates cast their votes...at the convention.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

52. Hillary's going to drop out.

So Obama's going to get all the delegates.

[Tatiana]

19. Thanks so much for that recap! n/t

[UALRBSofL]

26. How many times have you seen pledged delegates switch candidates

Especially considering they were seated based on the voters in there districts.

[Tatiana]

28. Not a lot. But I've done it myself before, so I know it's possible. n/t

[Cha]

30. Great to hear from the

Chairman Dean, himself, on this Super Delegate biz.. Thanks, FlaDem!

[democrattotheend]

39. Well, I think we know how he's going to vote on March 4

Assuming he still votes in Vermont. Not that it was ever really a secret.

[Scurrilous]

43. K & R

:thumbsup:

[BringBigDogBack]

45. That's been obvious for a while...

Dean and the Dem party won't allow it to go to the convention, because they understand the consequences of that.

[Coexist]

46. :::::: VIDEO UP!! :::::::::

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/23356110#23356110

I watched the last part again - and what I missed in my excitement was that he said

"the odds are much better than 50/50 that this would not go to the convention."

Its too late to edit the OP to reflect that.

I'm very sorry for the tabloid headline I made out of that.

[crispini]

47. Thanks for the link!

I :loveya: Howard! :hi:

[NastyRiffraff]

55. I love Dean!

I love watching him speak. BTW, there was no "bomb" about the primary; Dean said what he always has said: let the voters speak. He beat back Nora every time she tried to get him to commit to "how many delegates will it take before you step in." He's ALWAYS said he didn't want this to go to Denver, and that the candidate should be decided by March or April. That hasn't changed.