Texas zeitgeist and the fall of the House of Bush.

[Perky]

This from Paul Burka at Texas Monthly

http://www.texasmonthly.com/blogs/burkablog/2008/02/early-birds-ds-outvoting-rs-almost-3-to.php

Cumulative Early Vote Totals for the 15 Largest Counties, 2008
(includes Denton, Hidalgo, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Williamson, Nueces, Galveston, Cameron)

Republican early vote for first three days: 56,408
Democratic early vote for first three days: 170,580


What is different about this election -- and the early vote reflects it -- is the intensity of the interest. The overwhelming unpopularity of George W. Bush and everything his presidency represented is driving the turnout nationally and in Texas, and here you can add contempt for the Perry-Dewhurst-Craddick leadership. Whether voters actually absorbed the knowledge that this is the first election with no heir-apparent or just sensed it as part of the zeitgeist, they are driven to make a clean break with the past and have a personal stake in rejecting Bush. I don't think it matters what these new voters' history was -- whether they were non-voters or just general election voters or onetime Reagan Democrats coming home. They are voters now. Even if they are Republicans, they are most likely the moderates who didn't vote in primaries. And they will make the Republican primary more moderate.

Barack Obama's personality and his message are dominating politics nationwide. The last candidate to stir this kind of feeling was Ronald Reagan in 1980 and before him Bobby Kennedy in 1968. Veteran political observers like me can roll our eyes over someone running for president on a platform of "Hope" and "Change," but nothing is so powerful as an idea, even a vague one, whose time has come. Obama is riding the whirlwind, and if he can make the moment last until November, it is going to sweep out the Republicans, even in Texas.

These numbers are so overwhelming, and the fifteen counties have such a large fraction of the state's registered voters -- 7,815,906 of 12,607,466, or 62% -- that what happens in other 239 counties is unlikely to alter the trend. These numbers have made me a believer. Rick Noriega could defeat John Cornyn. The Democrats can win a majority in the Texas House of Representatives. The consummate irony is that George W. Bush, who made Texas a Republican state on his way in to the presidency, may make it a Democratic state on his way out.

Texas is experiencing a tsunami of early voting that has no precedent. I have linked to the Secretary of State's Web site, which provides day-by-day election totals and an archive of early voting history in previous elections. To give you an idea of what is going on, here are comparisons of the total votes cast after the first three days of early voting in the seven biggest counties for 2008, 2006, and 2004 primaries (not counting mail-in votes):

Republicans
Harris 04 -- 1,929
Harris 06 -- 1,194
Harris 08 -- 8,886

Dallas 04 -- 1,162
Dallas 06 -- 2,145
Dallas 08 -- 6,847

Bexar 04 -- 1,205
Bexar 06 -- 1,902
Bexar 08 -- 7,028

Tarrant 04 -- 1,005
Tarrant 06 -- 2,299
Tarrant 08 -- 7,394

Travis 04 -- 1,737
Travis 06 -- 1,239
Travis 08 -- 3,792

El Paso 04 -- 890
El Paso 06 -- 1,227
El Paso 08 -- 2,623

Collin 04 -- 1,244
Collin 06 -- 1,538
Collin 08 -- 4,805

GOP early voting has doubled in El Paso County this year; tripled in Bexar, Tarrant, Dallas, Travis, and Collin counties, and shot up sevenfold (!) in Harris County. Not bad -- until you see the Democrats' numbers.

Democrats

Harris 04 -- 2,392
Harris 06 -- 1,379
Harris 08 -- 26,729

Dallas o4 -- 2,314
Dallas 06 -- 1,636
Dallas 08 -- 23,312

Bexar 04 -- 3,022
Bexar 06 -- 3,845
Bexar 08 -- 20,926

Tarrant 04 -- 1,005
Tarrant 06 -- 679
Tarrant 08 --15,888

Travis 04 -- 3,743
Travis 06 -- 1,367
Travis 08 -- 18,389

El Paso 04 -- 4,637
El Paso 06 -- 5,221
El Paso 08 -- 12,807

Collin 04 -- 503
Collin 06 -- 156
Collin 08 -- 6,845 (No, I not did not a mistake.)

[TexasObserver]

1. Paul Burka is right on the money. He's been around 30 plus years.

It's the Texas Obama Tsunami, and it's unstoppable.

The polls cannot identify all the Obama voters because the polls cannot accurately define "likely voter" this time. It's going to be a record turn out of Democrats, and it's going to be a big Obama win.

That is the reason Hillary has started avoiding Texas talk and is pumping Ohio. She knows she's beat down here.

[Uncle Sinister]

2. thanks for that. wish molly ivins was still around, she'd be on those like...

a tick on a rug.

[Melinda]

3. Ah, Schadenfreude is not my intention, but how delicious it would be to see Cornyn defeated....

and Texas Democrats take back power. One more week until it happens, and then I'll gloat. ;)

[TexasObserver]

9. Cornyn is the Devil.

AG, Supreme Court, and Senate.

A career of evil upon evil.

[intaglio]

4. K and R n/t

[Submariner]

5. Poor Texas got hoodwinked by Bush

I just read yesterday that SMU in Texas is going to have it's campus disgraced with the GW Bush library. What a dishonor to bestow on the state of Texas. It campus betting pool should have fun though trying to predict when Al Qaida will level the new library with a car bomb.

Texan's should kick the little pudknocker out and send him home to Connecticut where he and LIEberman can fellate each other.

[fudge stripe cookays]

7. There were plenty of folks...

at SMU who signed a letter to the exec staff, trying to get the library moved somewhere else, but money talks, as they say.

This article warms my heart. I'm a lifelong Texan, and just moved to Wisconsin in September. I'm missing history being made!

[Ishoutandscream2]

24. You wouldn't believe here in Rockwall county

8 years ago, I voted in the Dem primary at Rochelle elementary. The Dems were to vote in the cafeteria, and Repigs in the library. The library was overcrowded, and my wife and I entered the cafeteria. We were the only ones voting, and with two voting judges in this large cafeteria, we were a grand total of 4.

Yesterday, I early voted in the town square. This is where you would have early voted, in a building right across from the courthouse in what used to be the North Texas Appliance Store. When I entered, the people before me and after me were voting in the Dem primary. Who knows, they could have been current or former Repigs who have had a change of heart. But it was heartwarming to see.

Even my neocon friends here at work, who were calling me "traitor" and that I should move to Massachusetts, have changed. They won't openly say they voted for Bush in 2000 and 2004. They don't like McCain, and they seem to have a liking for Obama. Even though I have been an Edwards' supporter, this is still a major breakthrough and is wonderful to see.

Wish you could see it. It would freak you out. Even the house that had "Scary Kerry" in its front yard is strangely quiet. Things are changing. Now, if Bushbots like Ralph Hall and John Cornyn could disappear, then I would be in hog heaven.

[fudge stripe cookays]

26. That is so AWESOME!

I wish I could see it! I have been having some twinges of homesickness lately. Mostly for my house, Central Market, La Madeleine, the enchiladas verdes at Chuy's, and being able to work on my garden in February.

Then I remember the heat in August, and don't feel so bad! Congrats, ya'll! I'm so proud of all of you!

[blogslut]

6. These numbers just stun me

I keep rubbing my eyes to see if I'm dreaming. They did indeed, wake a sleeping giant.

[Perky]

8. They are stunning n/t

[formernaderite]

10. its like Obama cleaned house

no more Bushes...no more Clintons. Nice.

[rainbow4321]

11. Only 20,000 Texas votes let chimp make his run for the WH

Why do I say that? Because that is how few votes the repuke Lt Gov candidate made over the Dem Lt Gov candidate to win the job during chimp's 2nd term as TX gov.. The blood bath over that position leading up to that year's election day was horrible.
Had the Dem won, chimp never would have left TX and headed to DC because it would have left the DEM Lt Gov to take over Texas and there was no way in hell he would have done that. Instead, the repuke won and chimp (who swore over and over to TX voters during his 2nd term campaign he would fulfill his term) bolted for the Prez office.

Think of what an impact those 20,000 votes have made on our history over the last 8 years...makes you go "if only"...


Now think of what kind of impact waking the sleeping giant/TX Dem voters may have for years to come in TX!! I SO cannot wait for Mar 4th! TX repukes won't know what hit them!!!!

[blogslut]

12. John Sharp was a good man

sigh

[OnceUponTimeOnTheNet]

13. K&R Read the comments over there too, good stuff and the author replies to some.

Paul Burka ~430 people did precinct captain training for Obama in Collin County. WHAT A STATISTIC!

[Perky]

14. Axelrod is rewriting the campaign operation textbook for years to come

We have never seen anything like this before... and I certainly am unsure whether it is trasnferrable to other candidates down the road..... but the convergrance of the perfect political storm and the perfect candidate and campaign operation for that storm is something to behold.

[ctaylors6]

15. Maybe I'm cynical, but all the republicans I know are voting in dem primary then for McCain in GE

And most are family members, so I know this for sure. They think McCain's a done deal, so have no reason to vote in dem primary. It's also a little bit of a protest to a few for McCain being the nominee. They have various reasons for choosing who they're voting for in the democratic primary, from reasonable to offensive, but I'm sure they'll vote mccain in the fall. I hope my situation is not the norm for republicans across the state, but I thought I'd mention it for what it's worth.

[Perky]

16. Yes I honestltly do not think Obama would have a chance in Texas in fall

Stranger things can happen but it would take a positively mordibund GOP attempting to ally their base on Immigration. But that is a double edged sword It might bring the GOP out but it might also bring Hispanics out in record numbers.

Massive AA turnout and Richardson as VP camping out in the Rio Grande Valley for the last month of the campaign might have an outside chance AT BEST

[Fly by night]

17. With turnout patterns like this in every state, how can McCain be behind Obama by < 6 points ...

... in most national polls?

And don't tell me that over half of the voters in Dem primaries to date have been Rethugs.

There's much we have to rescue in this country, including the polling process.

[jasmine621]

18. If the national polls are asking people who did NOT vote in the priamary

we might get a better picture on this issue.

[Fly by night]

19. Good point. But most pre-election polls these days survey "likely voters" ...

... in order to come close to predicting the primary outcomes. Still curious about the wide discrepency between the closeness of national polls and the 3/1 and 4/1 turnout differences between Dems and Rethugs in primaries.

My suspicion is that the race has to be made to appear close in order for the Rethugs to steal another one. If we go into the November election with a 10 point lead in the polls (and we should be more ahead than that) and McStain wins, all hell will break loose.

As for me, the sooner -- the better.

Eat the rich.

[Perky]

22. Just remember national pollig sampes are of 600 people or so

and given demographic and geo-political consideration the numbers can get pretty whacked in a sample that size. The model probably favors older, more affluent more moderate voters. The turth of it to accurately guage this eletion the sample size need to be much larger and much more reflective of this years exit poll data then it does against historic primary models.

THe likely voter model really gets tossed a curveball by the Obama Movement. It probably can not accuratley guage the enthusiasm gap either.

They are not capturing first time voters, younger voters are somewhat undersampleed because of cell phones. In this election cycle, it is also probably severly undersampling AA turn out.

[Perky]

23. Just remember national pollilg samples are of 600 people or so

and given demographic and geo-political consideration the numbers can get pretty whacked in a sample that size. The model probably favors older, more affluent more moderate voters. The turth of it to accurately guage this eletion the sample size need to be much larger and much more reflective of this years exit poll data then it does against historic primary models.

THe likely voter model really gets tossed a curveball by the Obama Movement. It probably can not accuratley guage the enthusiasm gap either.

They are not capturing first time voters, younger voters are somewhat undersampleed because of cell phones. In this election cycle, it is also probably severly undersampling AA turn out.

[Usrename]

20. *snicker*

(No, I not did not a mistake.)

[workinclasszero]

21. I'm so glad I lived to see the end of the Bush/Clinton dynasties

They will divide our country no more!

[LibertyorDeath]

25. That would be the Obama tsunami !

"Texas is experiencing a tsunami of early voting that has no precedent."

[Perky]

27. Yes it is