Now unless something **major** happens between now and then, this is the absolutely best case scenario I can see Clinton being in after March 4.
I believe this is going to be a big stretch also, but I am doing this to see what would happen if her best case scenario played out.
Current pledged delegate counts (I am using the AP count- it is much more up to date than CNN. CNN hasn't even finished some super Tuesday counts)
Obama: 1193
Clinton: 1034
Obama lead: 159 pledged delegates
So state by state pledged delegates:
Texas 193
Ohio 141
Rhode Island 21
Vermont 15
Texas- Lets say Clinton wins by 10% in Texas, and also gets 10% more delegates. Once again, this is incredibly unlikely when you factor in things such as the caucus, the fact they are close in the polls, and the fact that Texas would make it harder for Hillary to pick up many more delegates given the rules. For the sake of this topic though, lets give her the 10% delegate lead anyways.
So she would have a 19 delegate advantage in Texas
Ohio- I'll give her a 15% lead here, and assume she gets 15% more of the delegates.
So she would have a 21 delegate advantage in Ohio
RI- Best case scenario a 20% lead here, and lets assume she gets 20% more of the delegates.
So she would have a 4 delegate advantage in RI
Vermont- Absolutely best she can do here is break even, and even that is unlikely
No delegate advantage in Vermont
So, on Tuesday she would lead Obama's count by 44 pledged for the day. This is assuming she pulls off double digits in 3 of the 4 states.
So after Tuesday, Obama would still lead by 115 pledged delegates under this scenario.
Since a lot of people would argue Supers should be included, Obama would still lead by 55 delegates.
After this would be Mississippi and Wyoming a few days later, where Obama is likely to pick up some delegates. For the sake of this thread though, lets just assume neither picks up any in these 2.
Then there is a month and a half wait until Pennsylvania. Obama would lead by 55 delegates and 115 pledged.
So, my question is, lets say Clinton has an amazing day March 4 and gets some gigantic victories in my best case scenario.
What would both Obama and Clinton supporters think of the race after this? Would people still think Clinton should drop out? Would she start picking up momentum? Given the rest of the calender Obama would more than likely come away with more delegates anyways, but maybe not too many more. Would everyone still like to see this continue for a month and half in PA?
I am an Obama supporter, but I just wanted to hear what people think about this scenario.
Here is the state lineup BTW-
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.htmlAnd as I said over and over, the odds of this scenario happening I believe are incredibly unlikely and I think they will break even March 4, but for now lets just pretend all this happens.