ATTN: Obama +14 in Texas!!!

[mckeown1128]

Obama 57 Clinton 43

http://www.decisionanalyst.com/publ_data/2008/obama.dai

Obama is also +6 in the ARG poll. Of course this is to be taken with a grain of salt...(I suspect the G secretly stands for guess)
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/txdem8-702.html


The RCP average for Texas has Hillary at +2.8 (Not including this new poll..or ARG)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/tx/texas_democratic_primary-312.html


I think it is safe to say this thing is over. Hillary has to win Texas by +20 in order to keep this thing close. The momentum is clearly going in the wrong direction VERY fast. Not to mention her numbers dropping in Ohio. I think we might have a nominee.

[harun]

1. Game, set and match (n/t)

[still_one]

2. No, IT IS NOT OVER, there is quite a few undecideds in those polls

The statement that Hillary has to win Texas by +20 to keep this thing close doesn't even take into consideration the extremely complex system of voting they have in that state

No, this is STILL an extrememly close election

Do I need to remind you about what happened in NH?

[mckeown1128]

4. I think the general consensus is that Obama has the better

ground game. He will be better able to have his people vote in the primary and show up to the caucus. (haven't you heard all the Clinton supporters railing on and on and on and on about how caucuses are unfair to their candidate because Obama is better able to turn people out)

I am sorry but it is not close. If Hillary wins Ohio by the current average of 7 and wins Texas by the current average of 3 then it is OVER. She doesn't have enough friendly states to win by the margins she will need to win by.

I don't mean to be coronative.... but Hillary supporters need to come to terms with the situation.

[still_one]

10. First of all, I am not a Hillary supporter, I am a Barrack supporter

second, in order to win the nomination, a candidate must have something like 2024 delegates

Right now the Delegate count sits at something like:

Obama - 1363
Clinton - 1271

Something like 614 delegates left

Unless someone drops out, this is going to the convention undecided, and anything can happen

[mckeown1128]

29. You are forgetting two things...

The DNC won't seat MI and FL if it changes the outcome.(They will probably be seated once there is a nominee) They don't want any questions about who the nominee will be. Second, the super delegates will NOT overturn the pledged delegates. Many have come out to say so. Again, they don't want any claims about a stolen election.

That said. The total possible delegates are 4,048. MI and FL pledged delegates are already subtracted from the overall total. Now since the super delegates will NOT overturn the pledged delegates, we have to subtract the super delegates from the total. 4048 - 795 = 3,258 Now, before we forget. Edwards has 26 delegates. So we take 3,258 - 26 = 3,232. Now, to get the magic number of pledged delegates we have to divide the number by two and add one to get the majority number that Obama or Clinton needs in order to have the most pledged delegates... and thusly the nomination. 3,232 / 2 = 1616 1616 + 1 = 1617

So there you have it. 1617 is the number of pledged delegates that either Obama or Hillary needs.

The current pledged delegate total for Obama and Hillary stands at:

Obama 1,158
Clinton 1,016
(With 77 still not delegated yet) Assuming that they will split evenly.(Giving Hillary the extra) That leaves us with.

Obama 1,196
Hillary 1,055

Obama needs 421 of the remaining pledged delegates.
Clinton needs 601 of the remaining pledged delegates.
(Remember we subtracted Edwards's 26 Delegates)

So, out of the remaining 981 pledged delegates, Hillary needs 61% of all remaining delegates in order to overtake Obama.

Now, if you look at the remaining states. General consensus is that Obama will win in Mississippi, Wyoming, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota, Vermont and North Carolina(which is the only large state after Pennsylvania.. and Obama has double digit lead in NC)

Hillary has Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, Pennsylvania, Guam, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Puerto Rico

So, Hillary needs 60% of ALL the remaining states.... including the ones that Obama is expected to win. Add in to this Obama's strength in keeping it close in states that Hillary wins and landsliding in states that he wins and it becomes out right impossible for Hillary to win. She has only scored above 60% in Arkansas....

Can anyone really claim that she can win over 61% in all of the remaining races... including places like Mississippi and South Dakota??? Obama only needs to lose with a 42% of the delegates in order to get the most pledged delegates.... which will lead to the super-delegates... which will lead to the nomination.

[still_one]

45. Appreciate the analysis, it makes sense /nt

[mckeown1128]

52. No problem...

I and other's have more details about the situation here:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4714596

[apocalypsehow]

60. Excellent analysis, wish we could recommend individual posts.

:thumbsup:

[tekisui]

8. Hillary's broke.

No need to remind us of NH, because we remember everything that has happened since Feb. 5th. Big win....big win...big win...big win...big win...big win...big win...big win...big win...big win...big win.

[still_one]

11. Lay off it, I am an Obama supporter, and have been from the start

I am trying to discuss this reasonably

Unless someone drops out before the convention, with the number of delegates left, it will go to the Convention undecided

The reason I brought up NH is because the undecided vote was NOT factored in

but, hey, go ahead get over confident, Barrack won't, because he knows it is close

[tekisui]

16. Reasonably, she is in debt, and cannot compete in these big markets.

Obama is about 660 Delegates from sealing the deal, with 1105 Pledged Delegates and about 315 superD's left to be decided. I expect Obama to go to Denver with 2025+ Delegates under his belt.

[still_one]

20. Well, if that happens then you are correct. However isn't the states left

amount to about 600 delegates, and there is no way any one candidate will get all those

However, as you alluded to, if the majority of the votes end up with Barrack, then I have no doubt that the SD will vote with the
majority, and yes, he will secure the nomination then

I sure hope that is the way it goes

[tekisui]

22. The Pledged Delegates left to be voted in State Primaries and Cauceses

is 1105.

[still_one]

26. Wow, I screwed up big time then. Thanks for the information /nt

[Eurobabe]

27. FYI, Barack has one "r"

:hi:

[Eurobabe]

18. NH, that was decades ago in politics

meh.

[still_one]

21. Agreed, I was using it only because it was the undecideds that determined that

[mkultra]

30. HRC will not get indies or undecideds

Her negative attacks on her own "team" makes that impossible.

[grantcart]

35. all of those complexities including 1/3 of the delegates being

caucus and the fact that past voting patterns determine delegate distribution favor Obama in a major way. CD with large African American demos have substantially more delegates than those with hispanic voters. It all goes to who voted for Bush and who voted for Kerry

In Texas there is no bonus delegates for the winning the state.

It all favors Obama.

[Egnever]

37. Sorry thats just not true.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4692905&mesg_id=4692905

She has a 160 point elected delegate deficit at this point. In order to make that up she has to win Texas and Ohio by large margins. They are the last two large delegate states left that she has a chance of winning and her only opportunity to take a decent sized chunk out of his lead. If she doesn't do it now she has absolutely no shot of doing it going forward.

[TheWraith]

57. Undecideds break for Obama.

New Hampshire is the ONLY reason that she hasn't been declared totally dead by the media. Any other candidate would have been after losing 11 contests in a row and running out of money.

[Tom Rinaldo]

3. Hillary having to win Texas by 20% IS your preferred delusion

I am so tired of the spin around here. Hillary does need to win both Texas and Ohio to stay in the race. Maybe she will and maybe she won't, but if she does it will shake up the dynamics once again. It is some on the Obama side who are on inevitability cruise control now. The problem with an "inevitability" argument is that it is a bitch if it crashes. Clinton supporters already know that

[Occam Bandage]

7. No, just 15%. That is, unless you honestly believe

that the superdelegates will vote against the pledged delegates, and that MI and FL will be seated. Unlikely, to say the least.

Obama isn't the "inevitable" nominee. He's the nominee.

[still_one]

14. I agree the SD will not vote against the pledged delegates

and that MI and FL will not get seated, however, there is still a very good chance that the minimum votes to secure the nomination won't be there when we get to the convention

There are still quite a lot of variables

[Tom Rinaldo]

15. No. It is far from that simple

If Clinton comes back now, in the face of the wide spread expectations being expressed by many of how "unstoppable" Obama is now, the reaction to her winning Texas and Ohio will be as dramatic as the reaction to her losing 11 contests before it. Every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Hillary somehow defeating Obama in the upcoming big contests with all the momentum Obama now has, with most of the talking heads saying they can't see how Obama can lose a primary now, or how Hillary can even hope to turn it around, would rock the political world. By no means would that give her the nomination instead, but the race for the nomination from that point forward would very much still be in play. If that happened, and then if Hillary won Pennsylvania and then Puerto Rico, neither candidate is likely to go into the convention with a strong lead in pledged delegates. Certainly Hillary can still win, and still would deserve to win if ENOUGH of these things happened:

What if Super Delegates take into account who gets the most popular votes in all the contests combined - and Clinton ends up ahead there? What if she by far wins the most registered Democratic voters in the Democratic Primaries and caucuses? What if she does better than Obama in the contests when results are tabulated by secret ballots at polling stations that are open for a full 12 to 14 hours on Election day ? What if some stuff comes out in the news from future reporting that tarnishes Obama in some way between now and the end of the primaries? What if Clinton pulls ahead in the national polling again and keeps building on that lead heading into the convention? What if some super delegates think they should at least take into consideration the wishes of the disenfranchised voters of FL and MI? What if neither candidate comes close to winning enough pledged delegates and all the final momentum belongs to Clinton?

If enough of those things happened, as unlikely as some might feel that would be, I don't think Obama limping into the convention, even with a very slim lead in pledged delegates, would or should automatically guarantee him the Democratic nomination. We will all know more in a few weeks.

[still_one]

17. I am an Obama supporter, and just looking at the numbers, not only is it close

unless someone drops out, it looks very probable that it will go to the Convention without a nominee being secured

That is what the numbers say

Even if Barrack or Hillary, take all the remaining states completely, which is not likely, I think they would still be short of the required minimum delegate count to secure the nomination. Though, if that happened, most likely the Super Delegates would support the majority, and push it over

[mkultra]

34. actually, it is supported by mathmatics

With what remains, it is believe that Hillary will need to win the three remaining bigs by approximately 62% or more. That means if she doesn't win one, she is no longer within reach.

[Egnever]

40. Sorry but she has to have it just to pull even with him in the delegate count

by the time this thing has run out. eeking out a win while it might put her back into a positive light still wont stave off the fact that she will not be able to catch up. If she eeks out a win it will mean she will need something approaching 70% of the vote in every state going forward just to catch up and if you believe those kinds of blowouts are going to happen to her you live in dreamland.

A little bit of math...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4692905&mesg_id=4692905

[NDambi]

5. I smell the start of butt whipping recipe...

[Independent-Voter]

6. I'd wait till SUSA has their latest poll out, but there is definately a trend against Hillary in Tex

[TexasObserver]

9. Obama is ahead in Texas and will win it by 8 or more points.

They're all wrong sometimes, but the trend lines on most polls are some indication of where the race is headed. We're 11 days to the Texas Primary, and Obama is kicking her ass all over the state.

Polls are often defective, because they look backwards to try to predict something that may have little relationship to who is typically the "likely voter."

If this election has proven anything, it is that most of the pollsters are not sure how to quantity the "likely voter" in the Democratic primary and caucus process.

Obama will win both the popular and the delegate totals in Texas BIG, and if I'm wrong, you can crow about it, but I won't be.

[hogwyld]

36. The problems with the pollsters this year

is like you said, they don't know how to quantify a likely voter due to the huge influence the new voters are having. Couple this with the fact the many young voters only use cell phones, and thus aren't getting polled by phone.

[TexasObserver]

38. Exactly. They build a model which explains the half of the vote that voted last time.

And they miss entirely the half of the vote that didn't vote last time, due to age, disinterest, or some other factor. They build their model upon an election in 2004 when the Democratic presidential primary was over for all practical purposes, and therefore didn't matter in Texas.

They can't properly assess or measure the impact of young voters, indies, or crossover voters. They underestimate the black turnout and over estimate the Hispanic turnout. They incorrectly assess the Hispanic split between Hillary and Obama, because they don't understand that younger latinos and latinas are breaking for Obama, unlike their parents' generation, and they fail to understand that the voting Hispanic pool in Texas is very young as a group.

[loveangelc]

51. We shall see ;). You don't think Clinton's closing will help her a lot?

Hillary seems so confident of winning it makes me think her internals are good.

[scheming daemons]

53. Her closing was a veiled concession speech.....

....it means the opposite for her internals.

[loveangelc]

54. didnt someone post something about her internals having her up no less than 5 in oh and tx?

[TexasObserver]

63. Yes We Shall!! I think her closing was good because it portends the END.

I don't think she's confident of winning at all, and in fact, knows from her internals she probably won't win Texas.

[zulchzulu]

12. We'll see how much mud the Hillaryworld thugs throw at Obama now

They are a REALLY BAD aim.

[workinclasszero]

13. GOBAMA!!!!

Man if Obama wins big in Texas...ITS OVER!!!

The dem party big shots need to step up and persuade Hillary to gracefully concede for the good of the party.

Then we can present a united, winning, front against Granddaddy McCain in the fall.

GOBAMA!!! :applause:

[northernsoul]

19. A very wise man name Yogi Bera once said

"It ain't over 'til it's over." I think my fellow Obama supporters will do well to heed these words and not get overconfident. "Xerox" quip aside, I think that Senator Clinton acquitted herself quite well last night and remains a very formidable political competitor.

[mkultra]

31. he also said

"You can observe a lot just by watching."

[depakid]

23. LOL -

What will it take before DU'ers stop embarrassing themselves by citing bogus polls in an attempt to influence people?

How many times does one have to be proven wrong before they learn?

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

24. which polls in the last eleven contests with O in front have been wrong?

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

43. None.

Well... the Potomac primaries overestimated his win by a percentage point or two, but the last 11 polls have all been either accurate or skewed in favor of Hillary.

[depakid]

61. How many should I cite?

Not that it would matter... you'd go on believing what you're told- and use crappy data and analysis, just like Republicans try to do.

Guess we'll wait for Texas to see how well these turn out. Bout the same as ones from Iowa, New Hampshire and many other states that have been all over the board this year.

It's gotten to the point where it's laughable- and as I mentioned- embarrassing.

[GalleryGod]

25. Very.Good. News.

Big O goes to the Ground Game!

[aintitfunny]

28. Not over.

The convention will be the final battleground when there is a race this close. It does look good for Obama, but it ain't over till the "fat lady" sings at the convention.

Signed,

Rational Obama Supporter and fat lady who is not singing yet

[tridim]

32. Jonathan Alter might be right

He postulated last night that Hillary might drop out before the TX primary, he said it would be the classiest of classy moves.

[ORDem]

48. I hope he's wrong and I support Obama.

At this point TX and OH need to have their say. They need to be involved in the GE, the Dems need to sharpen their ground game in both states, so let the primaries go on there. Hillary can go out saying she did her best, hopefully with the graciousness she displayed last night, and we all go on to hammering on McCain.

If either primary goes against her, then it's just destructive to our GE chances to hang on another six friggin' weeks for PA.

:dem:

[0007]

33. I think there's something to what you're saying!

[book_worm]

39. I don't buy this poll. Obama is coming on strong and may have tied HRC, but he's not ahead by 14

[I Vote In Pittsburgh]

44. I don't buy it either

but the company doing the poll is well respected in product opinion analysis. They are new to political polling, but probably incorporate factors into their model that other pollers don't. We will find out after Texas if they are the real deal or if they should stay out of politics.

[AX10]

46. It reminds me of those polls that had Obama...

up by 20 two days before New Hampshire.

[ORDem]

50. Agreed. It's an outlier, but overall the trend is not HRC's friend. n/t

[greguganus]

41. I'm starting to feel sorry for Hillary.

She is guaranteed to get the "pity vote".

[DemCam]

66. Save it. She doesn't need it.

[Khaotic]

42. It's Gonna Happen!

[catagory5]

47. Original OP are you series?

"I think it is safe to say this thing is over. Hillary has to win Texas by +20 in order to keep this thing close. The momentum is clearly going in the wrong direction VERY fast. Not to mention her numbers dropping in Ohio. I think we might have a nominee"

She has to win Texas by 20 point margin to stay in it? She is only down 60 delegates WITHOUT FL and she needs it to be that big of a win? I mean we are talking under 100 delegates with about 1000 to go right?
I dont freakin' get some of you. I really think some on here are in high school and have nothing better to do than post.

[Spider Jerusalem]

58. She's down almost 150.

Pledged delegates, not supers (who can change at any time, and have been; she's lost quite a few in the past week).

[mckeown1128]

59. Here is math if you can follow it.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4714596

Sorry to be the one to break it to you.

[loveangelc]

49. Its not over yet. We will have to just see in about a week.

[BringBigDogBack]

55. Excellent.

This would finish it.

[dempartisan23]

56. i come to praise obama!!

[rucky]

62. Holy Guacamole!

[mdmc]

64. I hope it is true

:kick:

[adoraz]

65. Not accurate BUT.......

I don't think this is accurate, but it is definitely a good sign. It can't be seen as anything other than a good sign for Obama even if it is off.

The question is, how off is it?

I have a feeling it the primary was held today Obama would edge out Clinton. I think more of his supporters would go to the polls and I think more undecideds would break his way.