Is Texas, and that is not a sure thing for Bush at this point.
The facts are still that Kerry does have a sure 134 electoral votes in a number of very heavy electotal vote states, While BUsh is not a sure thing in those states. Kerry is likely to lock up the rust belt staeswhich have been seriously hurt by Bush and there are indications that some of the Southern States like South Carolina are not going to be as easy a win for Bush as previously thought. A number of states in which Bush has also been sene to be a shoe in have recently seen upsets in elections for Congressional seats in which the REpublican candidate advertised themselves as closely aligned with Bush and those incumbent candidates lost to their Democratic Rivals. A good number of those states in which no polls have been taken are not Red States but clearly blue, Like West Virginia.
Polls from this past week show Kerry ahead of Bush in Pennsylvania.
AS the web site I posted Indicates, Kerry is sitting on top of even more electoral votes than I indicated at 134, DC's site indicates that Kerry has 165 sure electoral votes in staes that are either firmly Democrat or strongly leaning that way, While Bush is only has a sure 55 electoral votes right now.
In undecided states right now Kerry is ahead in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and the three most recent newspaper polls in Minnesota show Kerry ahead of Bush beyond those polls margins of error, most recent polls from yesterday. Kerry isl likely to rin ahead of Bush IN New Mexico as well, but the most important states for Kerry are the ones that are running close, but which he is already ahead in.
In a very recent analysis of the electoral college right now the elecroral college is tallying very close, in fact in a dead heat with both Kerry and Bush having 269 electoral votes, each one within one electoral vote of winning the election.
Ads, Polls and an Electoral College Tie
Exclusive commentary by CK Rairden
Mar 17, 2004...Even within these ‘swing states’ there are solid party line voters. That means the campaigns will be hammering away at independent voters in the key battle zone states. A king’s ransom of campaign cash will be spent to sway this group and deliver the presidency to someone.
Or will it?
Okay--more numbers. For the swing states, if a poll is within the margin of error, or there is no polling data, that state stays with the party that won it in 2000. So far that is all of the states with the exception of two small states with a total of nine Electoral College votes. New Hampshire and West Virginia. A University of New Hampshire poll in February gave Kerry a huge 15-point lead. While West Virginia has had no public polling released yet, I contacted a political consultant in the state who had seen internal polls that gave Kerry an 8-point lead. And that makes sense with the tough economic times that state has seen
Okay--more numbers. For the swing states, if a poll is within the margin of error, or there is no polling data, that state stays with the party that won it in 2000. So far that is all of the states with the exception of two small states with a total of nine Electoral College votes. New Hampshire and West Virginia. A University of New Hampshire poll in February gave Kerry a huge 15-point lead. While West Virginia has had no public polling released yet, I contacted a political consultant in the state who had seen internal polls that gave Kerry an 8-point lead. And that makes sense with the tough economic times that state has seen.
Crunching those numbers right now shows a dead heat. Literally. It is entirely feasible that at this point in the race John Kerry has 269 Electoral College votes leaning his way and President Bush tallies the same exact number leaning to his side. That leaves a tally of 269-269, but it takes 270 Electoral College votes to win.
http://www.washingtondispatch.com/article_8453.shtmlhttp://www.washingtondispatch.com/article_8453.shtmlI really dont know if the Washington Dispatch is a conservative of liberal source, but if conservative adn the analysis of the states is correct, then Kerry is doing extremely well against an incumbent president.
But again, right now things are looking rather in Kerry's favor. While Kerry is seeing his favorability rating erode a bit, in most individual state polls. BUsh's favorability rating are eroding by similar figures. And while Bush is doing better in a few polls against Kerry right now, BUsh's favorability rating are falling to even lower levels in most polls, and he is only increasing in a few polls. As the dispatch articles indicate in states where there is no polling data, some of these states are not being considered in play. But some staes have recent polling data which indicate that Kerry is doing better than Bush in several states that Bush won in 2000.
It seems to be a very close race by the information in the dispatc article. But if you look at other data that is not incliuded in the dispatch article, states that the author gove to Bush, such as Arizona are going to Bush, but other staes whhich were assumed to be going to Bush are going to Kerry in later polls.
The Dispatch Article noted that there are 12 strong democratic states that Kerry can absolutely rely on which would give him 173 electoral votes. With Bush having 183 electoral votes in 21 states. But several of the states that were included in the Republican leaning states which are being given to Bush to result in those 183 votes are right now leaning towards Kerry. One state that was given to Bush to get that 183 vote figure is Ohio, which the lates polls give to Kerry. So zap 21 electoral votes from Bush and add them onto Kerry, Droping Bush to 162 electoral voted, and Kery up to 194.
I actually think that before this is over, Kerry is going to take several of the states that Bush won in 2000, nost important, it seriously looks like Kerry will take Ohio, and without Ohio, Bush cannot win the nomination unless he can take away one of the 12 very strong democratic states from Kerry which does not look like it is going to happen.
I think that Bush is going to lose many of the states that he barely won in 2000, and in the states near the great lakes or bordering them, he will lose to Kerry, close losses but losses. I think he will take Indiana, but lose Michigan, Ohio, Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania.
Recent events in Kentucky may even lean that stae towards Kerry over Bush. And it may be very likely for Kerry to take Tennessee.
Going over the data that is coming in from sstates that are doing polling, plus, lookng at events in states that have not yet done so, the results in electoral college votes are a great deal closer than the one single CBS/New York Times polls would indicate.
The map referred to has Kerry surely pulling 10 states, and recent polls show that a number of the states that are too close to call are polling with Kerry ahead of Bush. IN fact, Kerry IS currently polling ahead of Bush in a number of the states that are considered too close to call. The clearest indication of this is that the Bush campaign is coming out so very early with attack ads on Kerry. They are sincerely worried about the electoral college data, and the fact that Kerry is doing better than Bush in states Bush won in 2000 that are very heavily leaded with electoral votes. I would rather see Bush take a state with 4 electoral votes from Kerry, and have Kerry take a state like Ohio with 21 Electoral votes. Bush has been heavily advertising in Ohio, and it has not effected Kerry's lead in that state one whit.Or in any of the other states that is heavily loded with electoral votes. As noted Kerry is very strong in 12 states in which he is pulling 165 electoral votes.
If Kerry takes Ohio with 20, Florida with 27, Michigan with 17, Pennslvania with 21, and Minnesota with 10, Kerry gives Kerry 260 electoral votes from 15 states. Ten more is all Kerry would need at this point is ten more electoral voted to win the presidency.
Right now Kerry is ahead in all of the states noted above.
Kerry also has shown that he has significant ability and is more highly favored in states with higher populations and higher electoral vote counts. In states like Ohio which have been hard hit by Bush's economic policies, Kerry stands a very good chance to win states Bush won in 2000. With a handful of states beyond the 10 that are firmly in Democratic hands and are firmly supporting Kerry, Kerry can easily win with an electoral college strategy even if he were to lose the popular vote, (Which seems to be unliely either, as he is carrying some very heavily populated states).
On the electoral map, there are nine states that are too close to call, but these states have 130 Electoral Votes, and Kery is ahead in 5 of those states which have the largest numbers of electoral votes right now by polls. The same Rasmussen polls which put Kerry ahead of Bush in Ohio have Kerry ahead in:
Florida:
Bush 45% Kerry 48% other 2% Rasmussen Reports 3/1-13/04 5%
Michigan:
Bush 44% Kerry 48% other 3% Rasmussesn Research 3/14-16/04 4.5%
Pennsylvania: (close but Kerry still ahead)
Bush 44% Kerry 45% other 5% Rasmussen Reports 3/14-16/04 4.5%
Ohio:
Bush 41% Kerry 45% other 4% Rasmussen Reports 3/14-16/04 4.5%
Oddly enough there is one state that is very very close which is all Kerry would need to take to win the election, yet Kerry alone of the major democratic candidates has one factor in his favor which is indicating that this state is beginning to lean away from Bush and towards Kerry. That is New Jersey with its 15 electoral votes and extremely heavy Catholic population. In fact one of the factos in Kerry lead in the too clsoe to count states listed above is that they have a larger than average Catholic Population. For Example:
Catholics make up 23 percent in Michigan, 29 percent in Pennsylvania and nearly 32 percent in Wisconsin. Though there is some question about Catholic Bishops attempting to hold Catholic Politicians accountable for their political decisions, this does not seem to be effecting the Catholic Vote against Kerry. In the primaries, the Catholic vote was very, very important in Kerry winning the nomination.
New Jersey is another heavily Catholic State, as is Florida is another reason Kerry is ahead of Bush in Florida right now)In fact all of the most important swing states have the highest Catholic Populations. Missouri is another one of these,but Missouri in the last polls taken leans very favorably towards Bush.
So Kerry has to maintain his lead in Ohio, PA, Michigan,Florida, and then either win New Jersey, a good chance, or Wisconsin, along with lets say West Virginia another very likely stae, To win. Kerry's fight for electoral votes right now seems to be less of a battle than Bush's.
Given Kerry's 165 electoral votes in ten very large states, all he needs is those five other swing states noted to win the election. He is certainly ahead of Bush right now in 4 of them. Wisconsin or New Jersey with the four states noted above wins the election for Kerry.
In the last poll taken in any Democrat was very very far ahead of Bush, with Bush Taking 38 percent of the vote and any Generic Democrat taking 54 percent as of early February.
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