Why, and when, Hillary drops out.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

The why is the easy part. Unfortunately, it is impossible for outsiders to predict when accurately. The why consists of the following numbers

32, 36
18-5, 12

These are the millions raised by the two remaining DEM candidates in January and February.
the 18-5 represents the loan (probably given to herself in December) that was repaid. She has done worse this month than last.


When really depends on a couple of factors, Penn, WIlliams, Bill, Ickes, travel expenses, parking, but mostly, watching a far more organized, larger grass roots, and much better funded campaign beat them in every market, in every ad purchase and in every public meeting and organizational effort. Having twice the $$$ is a huge advantage.

If Hillary tries to match Obama, she will be in debt long before the Texans or Ohioans even vote. THe first loan she gave herself was both strategic and political. It created sympathy (as though a campaign that wasted 140 MILLION needs sympathy) and it created a large fund drive. But not large enough. Even worse, that pocket has been picked one too many times. It is bare. Empty. Without funds. Dry as my ex-wife's . . . er, stare.

What this really means is she will drop out. Not because of some honor or integrity (although her staff will be sure to play it up like that, much like they spin everything else, even the clothes that she wears.), but because she will refuse to risk that 5 million once again, knowing that this time, it will not be repaid. Her life of luxury is far more important that risking all on a bet with bad cards, bad odds, and a very bad campaign plan.

[Mags]

1. Just heard on CNN that Bill Clinton said that if she

did not win Ohio and Tx. that it is over. Then you guys can really celebrate.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

2. No. not true.

not until we

a) win the WH
b) replace Reid
c) replace Pelousy
d) have a large enough majority in the senate to prevent filly-busters
e) replace two on the Supremes

and in the process, fix the DOJ, EPA, CIA, FBI, NSA, DIA, and many other alphabet soup agencies. there is a hell of a lot of work to do. Bush broke much of this country. We have to fix it first and foremost.

[subsuelo]

3. you forgot one thing

get out of Iraq

[ChairmanAgnostic]

5. oh hell yes. my bad.

[Occam Bandage]

4. Indeed. No celebrations until we actually fix shit.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

6. it will take years. rome was not built in a day, but

it burned down pretty damn quickly.

[Yurovsky]

11. You're gonna need more than 2 on the SCOTUS ...

sadly the oldest and least healthy members on the court today are 2 of the remaining 4 liberal votes remaining (JPS & RBG). So it'll probably take at least 4 new justices to return the court to a proper balance (that respects precedents and stops the backwards march towards 1950 ... or is it 1850?)

Current ages:

Liberal/Progressive bloc
John Paul Stephens - 87
Ruth Bader Ginsburg - 74
Stephen Breyer - 69
David Souter - 68

Conservative/Reactionary bloc
Antonin Scalia - 71
Clarence Thomas - 59
Samuel Alito - 57
John Roberts - 53 (ugh!)

Swing Vote (usually votes with Conservative/Reactionary bloc)
Anthony Kennedy - 71

JPS & RBG will probably retire if Obama is elected. That would allow President Obama to appoint 2 new justices, hopefully he'll copy the far right model and nominate YOUNG JUDGES. We might catch a break with Scalia or Kennedy retiring/expiring, as they'll be closing in on 80 towards the end of Obama's second term (I know, I know, I'm getting ahead of myself). Unfortunately, Breyer and Souter would be right on their heals, and it's anyone's guess if a guy in his mid/late 70s is going to become terminally ill or have a heart attack/stroke. The GOP has a huge built in advantage in that 3 of its 4 most conservative judges are in their 50s. It might take a couple of Democratic Presidents (Obama for 8, Edwards or someone else for another 8) just to get to a solid 5-4 or 6-3 majority.

This is the far right's most enduring legacy, and it won't be rectified overnight. It will take a generation to fix the SCOTUS.

[Danger Mouse]

8. No celebration till the White House is painted BLUE.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

7. CNN was bragging this morning about how McCain raised 7 million in January.

I just thought that was funny and I'd throw it out there.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. such much, sweet inside?

heh. heheheheh. hehehehahahaHAHAHAHAHAHA.

But, still too early to celebrate.

[backscatter712]

10. Agreed - it's all about the money.

The Obama rocket is continuing to get fuel from hundreds of thousands (going on a million) donors at a stupendous rate.

Clinton just lost her tenth state in a row, she's behind in delegates, she's behind in the polls, and she just got thoroughly embarrassed last night.

Her donors, especially many of the big ones, are reexamining whether supporting her campaign is really going to pay off for them. They're not going to continue to funnel in six-figure checks to her 527 groups if she's not going to win.

It's hard to predict when, but it is inevitable that her campaign machine will run out of gas.

[pintobean]

12. K&R

Great post.