Ohio, + Texas+ Pennsylvania= 577 delegates

[jazzjunkysue]

We'll definitely know by then. So, it will be April before anyone can begin the eulogies for either candidate.

There's gonna be just a little back-biting around here between now and then...

[Renew Deal]

1. What's in between March 4 and Pennsylvania?

MS and WY. Two states favorable to Obama.

[my3boyz]

2. They don't count. LOL

:sarcasm:

[Araxen]

3. Those states don't count!

just like WI now!

[jensmygov]

7. MS & WY

Wyoming is 3/8.Miss is 3/11

[Occam Bandage]

11. WY is red. MS has black people in it. Don't count.

[Justyce]

4. Very true... but a little back-biting? More like a cannibalistic feeding frenzy...

;)

[cali]

5. Nope. If Obama wins TX, RI and VT and keeps it close in OH

or wins it, it's over for Hillary.

[Egnever]

6. Obamas lead is now 143 Delegates

those 577 will not erase his lead. He is on his way to wining Texas and ohio is tightening. Hillary may get one more win out of Ohio but it wont be by enough to even begin to catch up.

[jazzjunkysue]

8. Muckane is now talking about Obama: The first GOP to believe that it won't be HRC.

Will Muckane de-rail the entire GOP machine!

I hope so!

[apnu]

9. I don't believe these are winner take all states.

So, in theory, should Clinton and Obama split the 577 delegates, we still have the same problem -- both candidates unwilling to back down.

If I'm wrong, please tell me why.

[Thrill]

10. The only thing that can save Hillary is maybe an Edwards endorsement

It would maybe help win some of the Edwards supporters that have clearly been going to Sen. Obama

[Independent-Voter]

15. At this point, no one gives a shit about Edwards. He should have endorsed a month ago if he wanted

to play kingmaker

[quantass]

21. Agreed -- his Endorsement wont mean much now

[OzarkDem]

12. Agree

Obama is unproven in the larger states, important in the GE.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

14. I call bullshit

California, New York and Illinois are of course important, but they are also going dem no matter what is the nominee.
In actual swing states, Obama has either been very close to Hillary (NV, NM, MO) or won convincingly (CO, WI, VA). Those are the states that matter.

[catgirl]

17. And don't forget MN!

And MA will go dark blue too.

[lojasmo]

32. If obama is the candidate MN will be dark blue

If clinton is the candidate, McCain will win.

[Johnny__Motown]

13. If she loses both Texas and Ohio then we may not get to Pennsylvania

[truebrit71]

16. If she loses TX and OH she has to quit...

She will have no mathematical chance of beating Obama...The question then becomes will she endorse him and hope for the VP slot..or will she endorse and just return to the Senate and brood for 8 years...??

[COFoothills]

19. He only has to win one really and keep the other one close. n/t

[ORDem]

26. If she loses Tejas *OR* Ohio, she needs to concede so we can

get to the business at hand, busting McCain's balls and more seats in the Senate and House.

:dem:

[Johnny__Motown]

30. I doubt she will quit if she only loses one. she isn't reasonable

[COFoothills]

18. This thing won't see Pennsylvania...

...unless HRC is just too stubborn to step aside in spite of the obvious. And she does so at the peril of her own reputation and her own legacy.

Obama is going to win Texas. Bank on it. Ohio is going to tighten and though I think HRC will still eek out a win there it won't be by a large enough margin to make much difference to her on the delegate counts.

Looking at the math on pledged delegates, the only way she survives past March 4 is to win both Texas and Ohio and win them both BIG. Ain't gonna happen.

[jazzjunkysue]

20. "unless HRC is just too stubborn" What is she, if not stubborn?

She'll take it to the convention and die on the floor, and then make one of her famous "I don't like how this law/election/war has turned out speeches. And everyone will still feel about her the way we all felt about her before we ever cast our first primary vote.

Her weakness has always been her strength: Name recognition. But she had nowhere to go but down. You can't change anyone into a Hillary supporter if they're not, and Edwards knows that. I think that's why he's holding his endorsement.

What surprised me was that I always thought Edwards would ride this rocket to the top, not Obama.

But the real question is this: If the polls are right, and Obama can take down Muckane, and HRC can't, then there's nothing else in this entire world to discuss.

No more GOP. Period.

That's why some HRC supporters feel she's being black-balled. No more GOP> Whether in a democratic guise or as a war vet. No more GOP.

[underpants]

22. Hillary supporters hold on-this is exactly as we all knew it would play out

She does need to win big in all those states from what I have seen.

We'll see. She basically needs to get/stay close enough to Obama to make a superdelegate selection seem plausible.

[ORDem]

27. Really? I thought it was all going to be over by Feb. 5th. LOL!!! n/t

[underpants]

35. I didn't

Welcome to DU :hi:

[UALRBSofL]

23. You forgot the Florida delegates

Hillary will get the 210 delegates from Florida. :)

[scheming daemons]

28. You can keep saying that.... but it won't happen.....

...

[totodeinhere]

38. Florida has 210 total delegates but Clinton wouldn't get all of them.

Remember that the Dem party has a proportional system, so Clinton would get a majority of the delegates but Obama would get a healthy slice of them too. So Clinton's net gain in delegates would be nowhere near 210.

Even if they seat this delegation, which I doubt, it probably won't be enough to make any difference in the long run.

[ORDem]

24. We already know. No states are WTA, Hillary has to get at least 65%

in all remaining states, just to get even with Barack.

HRC is living a fantasy now when we should be kickin' old man McCain down the stairs.

:dem:

[jazzjunkysue]

31. That's why I started this thread. I stink at the math. Thanks for the breakdown.

[quantass]

25. for her its the Margins of Victories that are important -- if she can't she is finished.

Your mentioning these states have 577 delegates doesnt mean much since it will be impossible for her to collect anywhere near any of that...her goal is to somehow win with a large margin in the few states remaining that have a high concentration of delegates...and even then it will not bring her to beating him but it will put her in a comparative light that she is not out yet.

Her just merely winning by a small margin is a BIG LOSS for her because it would continue to make it impossible for her to ever be able to catch up.

The only way she is going to win now that i see is if Obama somehow screws himself up because she won't be able to do it.

[Yurem2008]

29. It is over, Hillary is History

she will not win OH or TX

[jazzjunkysue]

33. The polls say she's ahead there now....It will be interesting....

Personally, I just don't trust her, so, I'd be really happy if Obama could really hold on.

[texas_indy]

36. Obama will easily win Texas. The only areas in Texas that HRC has a chance

is the Valley, from El Paso to Brownsville.

HRC has 3 major problems:
1. Obama is pulling almost equal latino support as HRC
2. Texas awards delegates based on past vote and Latinos did not come out in strength last election
3. open primary!

Obama will win Texas. The only question is by how much.

[jazzjunkysue]

37. That's why I started this thread. The inside scoop to the next 600 delegates

will tip the whole thing, and I knew there would be informed DU'er's who would know better than the MSM pundits and tell the truth.

Gonna be a nail biter!!!!!

[weezy2736]

34. If somehow Hillary does tie it up, the biggest state left is NC

NC is 100+ delegates with a chance for a huge Obama taking.

Also, Indiana has 70 odd delegates, and Puerto Rico has 55.