New Ohio poll: Clinton 52-43

[RummyTheDummy]

This is from Survey USA, a pollster who has been fairly reliable in this season of unreliable polls. They had Hillary up 21 points in their last Ohio poll 10 days (or slightly less) ago.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=f333c0e2-db75-40c1-90c3-2a9f25af12e8&q=45558

[HeraldSquare212]

1. Do you think that was based on expectations about voting by demos,

and therefore may be out of date given the result from WI (which validate the results from VA)?

[RummyTheDummy]

7. All polls are out of date rather quickly

But what it shows us is there was solid momentum building BEFORE tonight and it will continue. I thought previously that he would split Texas and Ohio with her, now I'm wondering if he might just win them both.

[TexasObserver]

2. Sounds about right, and follows the trend. 30 down. 20 down. 10 down. 5 down. tied. ahead.

[Radical Activist]

11. And then a bigger victory than expected.

This is good news for Obama.

[TexasObserver]

14. Indeed. I ran out of room to say that in the subject line!! Then a blow out.

I don't ever remember a time in our party when we were through this many states, and one candidate had kicked the other one's ass so hard for 10 straight events, and the loser kept going. And for a candidate to consistently refuse to acknowledge defeat or concede losses is unheard of.

[4_Legs_Good]

13. Exactly,

You put Obama's own boots on the ground somewhere, and the numbers start changing fast.

David

[TheDonkey]

3. Obama will be closing the gap in OH and PA by the time it rolls around.

[ORDem]

8. God help us all if this thing drags on until PA.

Hillary is done, finished, it's over. Someone buy her a clue. Does she really want to go down in flames. She'll lose TX and OH by 10 points in two weeks. Dems are tried of dragging this on and on.

Can't you just sense the ass-kicking we're about to give to old boy McCain? Let's get on with it. We've got our nominee, let's turn our sights on the Goopers. Let's start supporting the Senate and House races that need our help. Let's turn America Blue! :dem:

[RummyTheDummy]

10. If she loses Ohio and Texas, PA isn't going to matter

At least that's my take.

[TheDonkey]

12. Probably right. I think she will try but hopefully party leaders really turn up the heat on her

I do not see her giving up lightly until Puerto Rico.

[Johnny__Motown]

4. You are saying he closed 12 points in 10 days (or less)? damn

and we have 2 weeks to go

[FlyingSquirrel]

5. She needs to win OH and TX (and PA) by around 60% to stay in it.

Otherwise she won't gain enough delegates to keep up her main argument, which is that if she's within 30 or so delegates of Obama, the difference is statistically insignificant and the superdelegates should vote their conscience rather than simply going with the front runner.

Obama, for his part, seems to be focusing on the number 100 - if he's ahead by at least that many, he argues, then he has a clear majority and the superdelegates should respect that.

[smalll]

6. GOMAMA! It's Not Over Yet!

The Obamatrons will have at LEAST two more weeks to kick us and Our Girl around. (The Democratic Party has at least two weeks to come to its senses. If we want to throw our nomination away at a content-free "post-partisan" youth idol, we might as well give it to Hannah Montana or Ryan Seacrest.)

[MercutioATC]

17. Can you explain the "Gomama" thing?

Yeah, a bastardization of "Obama" and all, but isn't the "mama" thing kinda sexist?

[juajen]

9. It depends on who they let in the door to vote?

Anybody know if Texas and Ohio are closed primaries? Or are they caucuses and are they closed or open?

[Hippo_Tron]

16. Texas has a caucus and a primary

[Hippo_Tron]

15. Obama has two weeks to close the gap, I think he can do it

However I'm lowering my expectations to Obama losing both Ohio and Texas by about 10. That way I likely won't be disappointed.

[Dark]

18. It's a survey of all voters, not dem/dem-leaning

While some republicans will fuck with the elections by switching to the dem ballot, most of the one's left don't want the dem label.