Let's talk exit polls and how reliable they've been this year

[Herman Munster]

Arizona: Obama 51, Clinton 45
Massachusetts: Obama 50, Clinton 48
New Jersey: Obama 53, Clinton 47
California: Clinton 50, Obama 47

[Zynx]

1. New Mexico was even worse. It showed a double digit Obama win and he lost.

[bigdarryl]

2. there horrible on the Dem's side but have been accurate for the rethugs UNFORTUNATELY

[jackson_dem]

3. Nice try

They have been equally wrong for the rethugs. Romney was supposed to do well based on the Super Tuesday exit polls. So much for the "it is rigged if Obama loses!" attempt. ;)

[rodeodance]

16. thanks

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Like I said in another thread: Exit polls showing RESULTS are trash.

However, exit polls breaking down the demographics of voters aren't bad, in fact, they've been pretty spot on for most of this election. Go by those and you'll get a better idea of what to expect in an hour.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

5. For once, I agree with Herman

Although my opinion is a honest one, and it's the same regardless of who the exit polls favor, while he or she is just spinning as usual.

[VolcanoJen]

6. Exit Poll gloating is bad form

And makes me wonder if anyone remembers those 2:00 polls on Election Day, 2004.

:grr:

[Zynx]

10. Like our 17 point win in NH?

[NJSecularist]

7. That's BS, Hermy.

You cherry picked the ones that suited your argument.

Those numbers were debunked once the demographic details for each state came out.

We have demographic information in WI. We didn't have any exit poll early data from those states.

[Drunken Irishman]

8. You get it. Look at demographic numbers being released now.

Those seem to always be correct. If Hillary is losing the woman vote, it will be a blowout for Obama.

[NJSecularist]

13. Exactly

We have detailed demographic information now.

Those early exit poll results on 2/5 were early, early exit poll results that had no demographics information attached.

[VolcanoJen]

9. Actualy, I think Hermy is spot on.

Caution. Let's wait. Let's count the votes. Poring through exit polling is only interesting AFTER the result has been reported, IMHO!

[Zynx]

11. I remember Super Tuesday very well. Not only were the early numbers crap, but the reported ones were

as well.

[Drunken Irishman]

15. Except they weren't demographic numbers.

They were showing results, which are almost always wrong.

Go by the demographic polls, they have a better chance of being right.

[Kahuna]

12. Oy. I thought you were gone.

;) :hi:

[Chasing Dreams]

14. Herman, have you received permission yet from Universal Studios to use that trademarked name?

According to Wikipedia this violation is worse than plagarism and you may be liable for monetary damages:

"Though many jurisdictions impose penalties for certain blatant acts of copyright infringement and may try to stop certain infringing imports at the border, copyright infringement is still mainly prosecuted through private lawsuits by the copyright holder or their exclusive licensees. When successful, these lawsuits will typically impose monetary damages against the infringer as well as injunctions against future infringing uses."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copyright_infringement#Penalties

[jackson_dem]

19. 1) They would never sue him 2) He is protected because his name would fall under the parody category

[FrenchieCat]

17. Those exit polls didn't include early voting.......which were majority Clinton voters.....

But, yeah....I'm not gonna believe a win is a win until it is won. Till then, I cool my heels!

[Renew Deal]

18. You're absolutely right

They could be 100% wrong.