Clinton is betting pretty heavily on Wisconsin, it seems.

[Occam Bandage]

1. It's tailor-made to be a comeback state for her: white, working-class, and union--and she led only recently.

2. She's run an extensive television ad campaign there.

3. She fired off a number of attacks that, frankly, have only limited sticking power. Plagiarism, cowardice, financing hypocrisy...these are attacks that, while powerful, are also easily batted aside, and can't last for more than a week. She could have saved those for Ohio/Texas, but she didn't. She launched a 1-2-3 three-day three-issue salvo. She knows that negative attacks have blowback, and she knows that those are bullets she can't use again. She was doubling down on WI.

If she wins it tonight, it's a brilliant, career-saving comeback. Let's see if she pulls it off.

[rinsd]

1. Taking WI would be huge.

[Occam Bandage]

2. I'm not going to play the "downplay possible loss" game. If Clinton wins, it's enormous.

[rinsd]

Even with a win, she has a long way to go.

She has to take both TX & OH, probably quite handily.

Then PA & PR.

Its a tough road to the nomination that ultimately will be decided by superdelegates (since appears neither candidate will get the majority with pledged delegates).

[grantcart]

33. yes if that happens she would definitely be the front runner again :-)

[TwilightGardener]

3. Well, I for one wouldn't congratulate her for her brilliance. That's a shitty way to win.

At least against a fellow Democrat.

[Occam Bandage]

8. It would certainly frustrate me to no end.

[snacker]

4. I've seen a LOT more ads for Obama and

he has campaigned here much more than she has. I'm not so sure that she's betting that heavily on Wisconsin. It would be big if she won here.

[MadBadger]

5. If She ran an extensive television ad campaign here, then Obama ran a GINORMOUS ONE

Cuz Its been like 4:1 for me in terms of Obama ads to Clinton ads. Could be just a Madison thing though.

[Occam Bandage]

No doubt. Obama was betting pretty heavily on WI, too. This isn't uncontested by any means.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

31. Equally as smart.

Pile on wins VS. Stop the momentum.

It's bigger than it's being played for both candidates.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

6. I disagree that it would be a "brilliant comeback"

As you say, the state is tailor-made for her. Winning WI would keep her alive for some more time, but not much more than that.

[speedoo]

7. The exit polls suggest she failed big time.

Looks like an Obama blowout.

Meanwhile the polls in Texas and Ohio are trending toward Obama.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

10. Early exit polls are meaningless and are wrong most of the time

[speedoo]

15. Well, I don't know how "early" these numbers are...

but they are absolutely devastating for Clinton:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4667279&mesg_id=4667588

On just about every issue, Obama's numbers are extremely favorable. There has to be a lot of statistical validity there.

[maddiejoan]

24. This one is usually the "tell"

Most Qualified to be Commander in Chief
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 50%
Obama 48


Prediction --Clinton pulls off a 2 point squeaker tonight.

[Occam Bandage]

25. Nice pickup. That's why I'm thinking it'll be close either way.

[Cameron27]

26. maddie I hope to god you're right!

Fingers crossed.

[Occam Bandage]

27. It is a possibility. Usually that correlates pretty well. After all,

who really votes for the candidate they think wouldn't make a good Commander in Chief?

[insanity]

30. Within a margin of error, I'm sure

Anything within three of four points should be taken with a grain of salt.

I'm think exit polling is really bad, and usually not entirely valid or reliable.

[cali]

9. I think that's pretty good analysis

If she wins tonight, it absolutely changes everything- even if she only wins by a couple of points.

[THUNDER HANDS]

11. early photo from Clinton headquarters in Wisconsin

Things not looking good.

[Barack_America]

14. ROFL!

:rofl:

Hey, that smilie looks a bit like your cockroach.

[BeyondGeography]

34. Merciless

:evilgrin:

[Thrill]

12. They went really negative there with ads and attacks

If its not close. Thats a huge blow for her

[rinsd]

17. Yeah, negative ads are the worst.

I hate when people tell lies about a candidate.

Ya know like you did.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4664354#4664705

[Thrill]

23. Nobody likes a Negative Nancy

[KAZ]

28. The classy thing to say might have been "sorry, my mistake".

[elocs]

13. Right, that's why she spent just a few days campaigning here.

Obama was here for a week before Clinton showed up. I saw his ads on tv for a week before I saw one of hers and I have seen 3 of his ads for every one of hers. We'll all know the outcome in a few hours. I saw a poll on CBS news which said that Wisconsin voters voted for change by 52% compared with experience at half that total. Now who is the change candidate and who is the experience candidate?

[Tom Rinaldo]

16. I honestly don't think she expected she can win Wisconsin

If she did she would not have spent as much time as she has in Texas and Ohio this last week, because stopping Obama's momentum cold in Wisconsin today would have done more to help Hillary in Texas and Ohio than anything she could have accomplished by campaigning in those states this week.

What I think she has realized however, is that she can't afford to not fight for delegates anymore, even in states she still expects to lose. Earlier she just wrote off states she thought she would not win in, but that strategy left her falling behind in pledged delegates. Now she is trying to salvage as many delegates as possible, even in losing efforts.

But I do think she is trying to revitalize her campaign now to give it new punch and vitality. She has no time to lose, she has to shake up the dynamics of this race one way or another, the track it is on is not going where she wants to be.

[Occam Bandage]

18. I agree that this is a new direction for her--to recognize that

the delegate difference between a 10-point loss and a 20-point loss can be the same as the difference between a 1-point win and a 10-point loss.

[ruggerson]

19. I don't think she'll pull it off and I don't think it will be close

[Occam Bandage]

21. I think it'll be closer than the polls have shown.

[Cameron27]

22. I don't think so either ruggerson,

I think she made him spend more time and money there than he intended, but that may be the only victory in WI for her. :-(

[TheDonkey]

20. She blew a lot of money on tv ads there. She is hoping to get the win.

[Quixote1818]

29. I would have done the same thing. She needed momentum going into Texas and Ohio. nt

[mopinko]

32. i am in the- she wrote it off camp. i am sure she knows that

she cannot win any state adjacent to, or even within driving distance of, illinois. look out ohio.
i tried to get on the hawaii team, but failed.

[Johnny__Motown]

35. didn't she have a 22 point lead a month ago? so much for brilliant come back

[Occam Bandage]

36. Never mind.

[meow mix]

37. wisconsin doesnt matter. official now

oh to the "firewall"

[Medusa]

38. I've advise her never to go to Vegas then

because she's bet. . . and lost.

[TexasObserver]

39. Oops, she did it again.

How to blow 40 point leads in less than three Months, by Hillary Clinton.

There's a book she shouldn't need a ghostwriter to write.

[doublethink]

40. .........

[PretzelWarrior]

41. time for her to throw good money after bad in Texas and OH

I'm sure the relentlessly negative attacks will only increase. On the upside, soon Bill can get back to hopping around the world as a philanthropist and do-gooder and not slashing a political opponent with mean attacks.

[undeterred]

42. Wisconsin doesn't like meanness or lying and that's what she did here.

Yeah, I know, the truth hurts. Obama won, but Hillary helped.

[grantcart]

43. Wisconsin has always been a bell weather state

[undeterred]

45. This winter has been cold as hell weather.

People voted in 3 degrees.

[dchill]

44. "...brilliant, career-saving comeback."

Not so much.