Exit Polls Suggest Obama BLOWOUT in Wisconsin

[Cheney Killed Bambi]

Yes, I know exit polls SUCK, and were wrong in 2004 and and in the NH primary. Nevertheless, I still can't help posting them, and you can't help reading them. ;-)

First Word on Wisconsin Exits

I'm hearing that after two waves of data, Wisconsin looks like a blowout in favor of Obama, in the neighborhood of 60 percent to 40 percent.

http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTU4NDQ4MDYyNjZkNjNkN2ZkODE1MTY0MDZmNWM0Y2Y=

[loveangelc]

1. polls dont close for another 2 hours

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

34. Move to the back of the line and keep voting!

1:59, people!

[Lefty-Taylor]

2. I hope they're right; by the way, the exit polls WERE right in 2004. Too much evidence

exists that the election was stolen.

[Orangepeel]

7. I think 2004 exit polls were right in terms of the outcome. I'm not sure they were right in term

of the closeness. It looked like Kerry would win by a lot, when in reality, he won by a little.

I could be wrong, but it is believeable to me that people wouldn't want to admit to a pollster that they voted for bush.

[democrattotheend]

8. The early exits weren't right in 2004

They were leaked before they had been properly weighted. That is why the practice began of locking the people in rooms until 5 pm, so that the exits will be fully weighted and analyzed properly before being leaked.

There may have been shenanigans in Ohio and elsewhere in 2004, but the leaked exit poll data isn't evidence of that.

[Fly by night]

38. Bullshit. The exit poll results were released four times in 2004 ...

... and only the last one (released after the principal exit poll computer "crashed") showed a Bush victory.

Since you are new here (otherwise you'd likely not be spewing this kool-aid), I suggest you visit the Election Reform forum and go back a while (say to November 2004) to start reading just how wrong you are.

[skipos]

3. The exit polls in NH were off?

I thought they were pretty accurate. It was the PRE-election polls that were bad.

[sniffa]

10. They were

[VolcanoJen]

4. Remember 2004

REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004 REMEMBER 2004

:-)

[woolldog]

6. what happened in 2004?

[VolcanoJen]

14. On Election Day, around 2:00, exit polls leaked that showed Kerry...

... in a comfortable lead. It boistered all of us, and we felt amazing.

Until that night, when we didn't feel all that amazing. :cry:

[EvolveOrConvolve]

20. Who knows how much those early exit polls hurt us

There were millions who had yet to vote, and many stayed away convinced of a Kerry victory. I can't even count how many people I know that didn't vote because they thought the election was in hand.

[VolcanoJen]

25. Exactly!!!

Which is why I urge Obama phonebankers (and you know what, Clinton phonebankers too) to keep dialing!!! An hour and twenty minutes to Get Out The Vote, and it's good practice for November!!!

[EvolveOrConvolve]

29. That's why the threads here showing an Obama blowout are disturbing

I may support Obama, but more so I support Democracy. And I agree, both the Obama and Clinton volunteers should continue their hard work until the polls close and the votes are counted.

[Kukesa]

13. Yes, Jen -- I remember very well.

We were elated with the early exit poll results. And then we were optimistic, next we were cautious, and finally, we were devastated.

[VolcanoJen]

16. Mama!

(Kukesa is VolcanoMom)

I'll never forget us crying over the phone. :-( :cry:

Thankfully, tonight doesn't feel like that... I'd be happy with either nominee. But, still. Exit Polls Suck!!

[nonconformist]

42. Awww.

I remember calling my mom us crying together, too. What a horrible time. :cry:

[VolcanoJen]

44. Wasn't it, like, the worst day ever?

:cry: :cry: :cry:

Thank Goodness For Mamas.

:hug:

[LittleClarkie]

5. Wisconsin doesn't matter

Any state that Hillary doesn't expect to win doesn't matter. NH didn't matter, until she won, then it mattered.

[GarbagemanLB]

9. No, Wisconsin still matters. It only WON'T matter once the final winner is announced. It still matte

rs for a few more hours.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

11. If Obama does win WI, what excuse will Hillary win to explain that it doesn't matter?

So far, her excuses have been:

1) Too many African Americans so it doesn't count.
2) It's a caucus instead of a primary so it doesn't count.
3) It's a red state so it doesn't count.
4) It's Obama's home state so it doesn't count.

Neither of this applies to WI though.

[HeraldSquare212]

15. Her voters wear mittens, and had trouble with the machines.

[Occam Bandage]

17. Open election, so it doesn't count.

Never mind that the GE is an open election.

[VolcanoJen]

18. Open primary?

Just trying to come up with reasons why Wisconsin might not matter. }(

[spinbaby]

31. It's next to Obama's home state so it doesn't count

Or possibly it doesn't count because of cheese or proximity to Canada.

[tridim]

35. She doesn't like cheese, so it doesn't matter.

[marlakay]

12. I don't know why but I am more nervous tonite

its like I am so afraid to hope...after 2 losses to Bush when it was obvious he was such a dunce...what was america thinking?????????

[Arugula Latte]

21. Me too.

I can't take many more of these primaries. I feel sort of half-sick all day.

That wine in your avatar looks good right about now. :9

[Cheney Killed Bambi]

23. I'm nervous too

So we can all be nervous together!

[democrattotheend]

28. I'm nervous too

still making calls

[Quixote1818]

32. I think it has to do with the attacks on Obama. I started to worry people might buy that crap.

I am not sure Democrats are that stupid though.

[Tropics_Dude83]

19. Looking at these-I agree it's an Obama blowout

EXIT POLL DATA (1+ / 0-)
Recommended by: kitebro
WISCONSIN DEMOCRATS - EXIT POLL RESULTS
REPORTABLE BEFORE POLL CLOSING
POLL CLOSE IS 9PM (ET)

-The Wisconsin Democratic Primary electorate looks different compared with the Potomac states that held contests last week.

-Wisconsin Democrats are mostly white. Fewer than one in 10 are African American compared with about a third in the Maryland and Virginia Democratic primaries.

-More than half of Democratic voters in Maryland and Virginia were college graduates. In Wisconsin, four in 10 have a college degree.

-Voters in Wisconsin are also less affluent.

27% of Wisconsin Democrats decided on their candidate within the last week – since last week’s primaries. Most made up their minds before that.

Time of Decision
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Last Week 27%
Before That 73

The Economy was the most important issue for voters today. This has been the case throughout the campaign.

Most Important Issue
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Economy 43%
Health Care 25
War in Iraq 29

In addition, nine in 10 Democratic voters today said the economy was in bad shape.

View of U.S. Economy
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Good 10%
Bad 90

On the issue of trade, a majority Wisconsin Democratic primary voters said U.S. trade with other countries takes jobs away from their state.

U.S. Trade with Other Countries
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Creates more jobs 17%
Takes away jobs 70
Has no effect 9

Change was viewed as the most important quality.

Most Important Quality
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Change 52%
Experience 24
Cares 16
Can Win 7

Most voters today have voted in a primary before. Few were voting for the first time.

First Time Voter
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
YES 17%
NO 83

18% of voters are union members.

Union Voters
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
YES 18%
NO 82

Wisconsin’s primary was open today. 27% of voters identified themselves as Independents – about the same number as four years ago.

Party Affiliation
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Democrats 64%
Republicans 9
Independents 27

In terms of the tone of the campaign, voters today viewed Clinton as more of the attacker than Obama. 54% said she attacked unfairly, while 34% said that about him.

Who Attacked Unfairly
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton did 54%
Obama did 34

Democratic voters today said Obama was the candidate most likely to improve U.S. relations with the rest of the world.

Most Likely to Improve International Relations
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 42%
Obama 55

Most Clinton voters say they would be satisfied if Obama was the nominee.

Satisfied With Obama as Nominee
Among Cinton Voters
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Yes 57%
No 40

Fewer Obama voters, however, said they would be satisfied if Clinton won the nomination.

Satisfied Clinton as Nominee
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Yes 46%
No 53

Clinton has a slight edge over Obama as the candidate most qualified to be commander in chief.

Most Qualified to be Commander in Chief
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 50%
Obama 48

Obama is seen as the candidate most likely to unite the country.

Most Likely to Unite Country
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 35%
Obama 62

And Obama is seen by Wisconsin Democratic primary voters as the candidate most likely to beat the Republican nominee in November.

Most Likely to Beat Republican
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 37%
Obama 63

WISCONSIN DEMOCRATS - EXIT POLL RESULTS
REPORTABLE AFTER POLL CLOSING ONLY
POLL CLOSE IS 9PM (ET)

Obama is getting the support of men today...

Men
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 35%
Obama 61

...while women are more divided in their support.

Women
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 49%
Obama 51

Independents make up 27% of voters today and they supported Obama over Clinton. Among self-identified Democrats, voters are split.

Independents
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 34%
Obama 63

College graduates went strongly for Obama.

College Degree
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 37%
Obama 61

While voters without a college education were more divided in their support.

No College Degree
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 48%
Obama 50

Income had an impact too. Clinton and Obama are splitting those earning less than $50K
But those earning more are backing Obama.

Less than $50K
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 49%
Obama 51

$50K or more
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 39%
Obama 59

In addition, Obama continues to win the support of young voters, while Clinton wins the support of those over age 60.

Those voters who made up their minds since last week’s Potomac primaries were divided in their vote.

Late Deciders
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 42%
Obama 58

Clinton had the edge with union voters.

Union Voters
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 50%
Obama 49

Those who viewed the economy as the most important issue backed xxxx today.

Economy is Most Important
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 43%
Obama 55

Those who said change was the most important quality in their vote supported Obama today.

Change is Most Important
Wisconsin Democratic Voters
Clinton 20%
Obama 77

[NJSecularist]

24. If those numbers are correct, Obama will win by 10+ points.

According to my projections.

[speedoo]

26. That looks very bad for Hillary.

Just about every one of those numbers is a huge plus for Obama.

[earthlover]

40. If these numbers are correct, not only will Obama win, but about every demographic goes Obama

Hillary only wins among union members by 1%.

Obama wins men and women.

INteresting that so many said Hillary attacked unfairly. I guess her negative campaigning bombed....again!

I anxiously await the results, but these exit polls are very encouraging, assuming of course they are legit.

[mucifer]

43. and another result:

people who lie to polsters

Clinton 865,000%
Obama 865,450%

[NanBo]

22. I remember 2004 and 2000

I couldn't even get up to go to work after 2004. I was so shocked by the final results.
And in the last election, the vote in WI against Gay Marriage just felt like a knife--I couldn't fucking believe my progressive state would do that...

Still, I watch the same damn exit polls and hope :)

[intheflow]

41. I wore black, complete with veil, the day after '04.

I was in grad school. I think some of my classmates thought it was freaky and OTT, but I got a lot of support, condolences and solidarity from my Dem and progressive classmates.

[Thrill]

27. If this is true. This is crushing to Hillary. They went

negative big time there. With Ads and on the stump. OUCH. This would be a serious REJECTION

[GarbagemanLB]

30. Now for the 'Obama fathered a WHITE baby' smears!

[Clinton Crusader]

33. You read the National Review???

frightening.
:puke: :wow:

[Occam Bandage]

36. Your first smiley is puking in the second one's mouth.

[FlyingSquirrel]

37. Anything more than 55% will be a big win

polls have been showing a 5-6% margin on average over the past week. That would translate to a maximum of 53% to 47%

[cbayer]

39. There is a guy, who writes a one line blog

about something he is "hearing after two waves of data" (whatever that means) and interpreting it as a blow-out two hours before the polls close?

are you kidding?

And then when get an OP titled:
Exit Polls suggest Obama BLOWOUT in Wisconsin?

That's not just irresponsible, it is downright embarrassing.

[Thrill]

45. And as we had been saying. The he won't debate me argument is stupid and weak

And the voters clearly rejected it tonight