Moderate to conservative democrats - how many will go for Bush?

[fujiyama]

This is the group that Kerry could have some problems with. I'm going to ignore the Nader "threat", because I think his voters will be smart enough to vote for Kerry.

However, this conservative group of democrats will possibly determine this election. Simply because many independant types have the same issues as them.

Generally these people:

-Don't want their guns taken from them.

-They are skeptical of the War on Iraq, but believe that Bush is generally doing a good job in fighting terrorism.

-Either They, themselves, or someone they know were laid off of work.

-They're concerned about their jobs going overseas.

-They have seen little of the Bush tax cut, but still don't want to have their own taxes raised.

-Edit: I also might add, these people may also be somewhat suspicious of the Patriot Act.

Ultimately, other issues will not really matter. Many in this group are very possibly homophobic and they don't believe gays should marry, but really to them, it's not very important.

So, how do we woo these people? Many of these people also probably listen to Howard Stern, rather than an excessively political Limbaugh, Savage, or Hannity.

[Mistress Quickly]

1. People in this group

are apathetic IMHO. Unless they are awoken from their slumber, they will figure, eh, it's good enough and either NOT vote, or vote for Bush, because change is, you know, scary.

[IrateCitizen]

2. This time, I don't think too many will...

Bush is an extremist. If anything, his reckless foreign policy has begun to actually unite Democrats and moderate Republicans. Living in the NYC metro area, most of the Republicans I meet are moderate ones -- and a good many of them are very upset with the direction in which Bush has taken the country.

Of course, there are the apathetic moderate-to-conservative "Democrats" who will pull the lever for Bush, but I think this will be offset by the moderate Republicans who realize that Kerry is actually closer to their beliefs than the current gang of extremist thugs occupying the WH.

[vi5]

3. Democrats or no, I don't think any of them voted for Gore...

So if they don't vote for Kerry this time I'm not sure it will have much of an impact.

Doesn't mean we shouldn't try to convince them otherwise, it just means that I dont' think the numbers will bear this out.

[wyldwolf]

15. Sorry! misunderstood your comment

[Ruby Romaine]

4. 0%

[HFishbine]

5. Not sure if this helps your thinking on the matter

But in 2000, 11% of democrats voted for Bush and 13% of self-indentified "liberals"... for what it's worth.

http://www.udel.edu/poscir/road/course/exitpollsindex.html

[THUNDER HANDS]

6. wow, that's odd....13%

Obviously it goes to show that just because you're a liberal it doesn't mean you're smart.

[sangh0]

9. Not exactly

IMO, it goes to show that just because someone thinks they are a liberal that doesn't mean that they really are a liberal

Either way though, it sure doesn't sound like a sign of intelligence. :-)

[WI_DEM]

7. Bush will get 15-25 percent of "conservative Democrats"

especially if they are like Zell Miller and a Dem in name only. But Kerry will get quite a few moderate/liberal Republicans I think to counter-balance that.

[fujiyama]

8. That's what I think...

I think dems have a slight edge, because many of the moderate democrats will come back because Bush has been so extreme.

I see very few running to Bush -- it would be because of only one reason -- War on terrah. Of course, there are some undecideds and this number could increase for * if there were another terrorist attack.

[ACK]

10. Someone said Bush is an extremist

This is our greatest weapon. Even above the lies and half-truths, the core fundamental lie Bush's campaign in 2000 told to the American people was that Bush is a compassionate conservative. He is barely a true conservative and not compassionate at all.

He is an extremist and it is important to not lose focus and pin our attacks in this fashion.

It worked against Dole and it can work again. Every campaign needs a slightly different tactic than the one before it but when situations are similiar enough it is time to dust off the old playbook and run the winning plays.

Conservative Dems hate extremists on either side. Everyone from soccer moms but compassionate cube dwellers without a lot of political experience. Clinton was incredible at painting the Republicans as extremists.

To address some of your points:

1. Kerry in his campaign material points out that certain gun law loopholes and other such things need to be closed but mentions frequently he believes that people should have the right to own guns.

2. Kerry should have stuck with his original line about the War. He thought the President needed the power to act but made a mistake in not seeing the unilateral move coming and not understanding how badly Bush would f*ck it up.

3. Kerry should and has made this a core point in all of his speeches on the economy so far. Shrub made the outrageous promise of new jobs with his economic plan and the jobless recovery has screwed him. Presidents should not promise jobs but promise to make policy to help people until they can find jobs again and that will help the American worker. We need to capitalize on this mistake Bush made.

4. Kerry has to walk a fine line. It is not about protectionism or blind free trade but the key is truly fair trade. He has made some talk in this direction but he has to stick his neck out more on this issue. Global trade is important but has instead turned into a blank check for companies and corporatist policies worldwide.

5. Kerry has to keep plugging and emphasize over and over about expanding the middle class tax cuts. Repealing the Bush tax breaks for the rich are important and should be mentioned in reference to bringing down the deficit but only like an afterthought. You can not give the repukes tax and spend soundbites.

6. Kerry should emphasize it is not flipflopping to vote for a bill and then in retrospect understand it needs to be edited or went too far. That is called common sense something the current administration has a major problem in grasping. The Patriot Act has to be changed to be effective as a tool for law enforcement but at the same time preserving civil liberties. Let us all be frank that is the very best he can hope for anyway with a Repuke congress.

One you did not mention is healthcare. This can be vitally important on the campaign trail. Not that it will go very far afterwards but it is important for the campaign.

With Conservative Dems it is important to show the electorate that you are the real deal and not a repuke-lite. When faced with two conservatives one Dem and the other Repub, they usually figure the Dem is a fake and vote for the "real" conservative. However, that is the great balance. You cannot let yourself be painted as a stereotype of "liberalism" the way the talking heads in conservative ville has defined it.

What do you do?

You come out with a populist progressive voice and you get Edwards I would suggest to help you with that message.

[WoodrowFan]

11. very, very few. (NT)

[Jai4WKC08]

12. "Moderate" views... maybe

I consider myself a "moderate to conservative" Democrat. More precisely, I'm liberal on some issues and conservative on others. I don't know how typical my views are of others--perhaps we're as diverse as any other subset of the party that gets lumped together and labeled. Or not.

I think you may be starting from a faulty assumption tho. I think we "moderate to conservative" Democrats (actually, I'm not sure there are any truly conservative Democrats) will overwhelmingly vote for John Kerry, but that it is the independents and moderate Republicans we need to attract. But the positions on issues are similar among these groups, so I'll give my take on each as a relative "centrist":

Guns--I don't generally support anti-gun legislation for a number of reasons. But I recognize that some controls are absolutely necessary and definitely constitutional. This is not a high priority issue for me, tho. I do own guns, haven't used them in years, but wouldn't want to give them up. I am not opposed to registration. I don't support concealed carry. I do not and will never hunt--I know that last is not typical, or rather, that moderates are seldom anti-hunting, whether they do any or not. But I don't think moderates care a great deal about reasonable gun control laws. Libertarians do, but they're another breed of cat.

Iraq & terrorism--I am less concerned about why we went into Iraq as how the war is being prosecuted now, and I think it's being fucked up bad (sorry for the language, but John Kerry's right--that's the exact word for it). If I believed Bush/Rumsfeld and the other chickenhawks knew what they were doing, I'd be more supportive of the effort. I think a lot of moderates want badly to believe they know what they're doing, so that they don't feel bad about supporting the war in the first place. We have to show them the truth somehow.

I also believe BushCo grossly lied to us on the specifics of the Iraqi WMD threat, but I think they honestly thought that threat existed and that once the WMD were found, everyone would forget about the specifics. I think that's a crime. But I also think that the typical moderate is not well-informed enough to distinguish the difference and that it needs to be more explicitly publicized.

I DO think BushCo is screwing up the war on terror and I greatly fear that al Qaeda is gaining strength because of how badly Bush/Chaney/Rumsfeld are botching the job. But I cringe when I hear liberals say the terrorist threat doesn't exist, or is not significant. I don't think I "live in fear" but there are people in this world who want to destroy us. I worry about appeasement, and the message that the election in Spain may have sent to al Qaeda.

I do NOT worry that a Kerry administration will be soft on terrorism--personally, I think he'll do much better because he sees the bigger picture. But I think many moderates do worry about it. Not because they think Bush is doing such a great job, but more because they haven't been seen clearly what John Kerry will do and we Democrats have a largely undeserved reputation for being weak on defense and the military.

I do believe we have to address root causes of terrorism and not rely solely on a military solution, but I also believe the military plays an important role. I believe we MUST work with allies and international institutions, and do some real nation-building in places like Afghanistan, not just pay lip-service to it. I am not opposed to unilateral or even pre-emptive military action to defend America or Americans, but I think resorting to either demonstrates a fundamental failure and is almost never the most effective way to operate.

I also think Bush is not tough enough with our supposed allies such as the Saudis, and I think it's primarily for corporate-profit motives, a view I think many moderates share.

Jobs--I know lots of people who have been laid off. Most are back to work, but at much lower pay, some without benefits, and almost all either out of their areas of expertise and education, or at much lower levels of responsibility. We don't have much traditional manufacturing industry in this region, but I know in areas where they do, the problem must be many times worse.

That said, I don't think you can stop the flow of jobs overseas. I think we can slow it down, while we work to create new jobs here. And I think it's even more important to take the longer view of preparing the US work force for where the economy will be 10-50 years from now, as hard as that is to predict. I support NAFTA and WTO, but with reservations. I don't think the administration is enforcing the protective provisions of NAFTA that they should be. But overall, I believe that we have to recognize the inevitability of international trade, markets and work force development and be smart about how we participate.

Taxes--I don't like to pay taxes anymore than anyone else, but I do believe you get what you pay for, and I don't think Americans have an unreasonably high tax burden (I know that's not typical--guess I've spent too much time in Europe). I got a fairly healthy tax cut, altho nothing that made a significant difference in my lifestyle of course. I do think the really wealthy are getting over big-time with the breaks on unearned income. I have investments of my own and hope to one day get a decent inheritance, but I sure don't think either should be shielded while working people shoulder the tax load.

Patriot Act--I am suspicious, but not totally opposed to the concept. I think many of the problems with it may be how it's being used by Ashcroft, but it's a bad law if it even allows that level of governmental abuse. I'm scared to death of the additional authority a Repub Congress, both houses, will give to Bush and Ashcroft.

There are a few critical issues you left out, that I think moderates are concerned about:

The deficit--one of the scariest long-term problems. We have no right to pass our debt to our children and grandchildren. It's also sucks up too much of our national capital and contributes to almost all of our other problems. Fwiw, I think even conservative Republicans are concerned about this one.

The environment--the other scariest long-term problem. We're in big trouble on this one, and again, it's our children and grandchildren who will pay for it. I think the Repubs are positively evil on this issue, and it may well be the one thing they do that destroys our nation and the world. But I wouldn't say my concern is typical of moderates/conservatives.

Alliances--while world opinion, in the abstract, isn't one of my most important issues, I don't think the US can operate effectively in any area without working with our allies and within the international legal framework. And I think the Bush administration has alienated so many foreign govts and fractured so many international institutions, I don't think they can ever be capable of repairing the situation. Not that they particularly care, which goes to the heart of the problem.

Minority rights--don't know if many moderates care about this. I do, but I'm probably much more liberal on this one. I do think we're progressing in the right direction on most aspects, but not nearly as quickly as we should and I lay the blame squarely on the Repubs. The rush to legislate against gay marriage concerns me some, altho I don't see the amendment going anywhere and think it is mostly a political stunt--a sop to the Republican base. I think many moderates don't approve of gay marriage, but I don't think they really care, and are actually quite supportive of equal rights for gay couples.

Illegal immigration--may be an issue that concerns a great many moderates, both for jobs and homeland security reasons. But I think it's also one that Bush is vulnerable on--a lot of moderates do see that he and his corporate cronies want the cheap labor and have not done much to solve the problem.

Religious right--has WAY too much power in the Repub party as a whole, at every level, and frankly it scares me silly. That said, I think the Robertsons & Falwells are very skilled at exploiting moderates who are concerned with what is perceived as the declining moral underpinnings of our society.

Dishonesty & ruthlessness--concern me greatly, but moderates who don't pay close attention may be missing it, or writing it off to election rhetoric. Still, I do think many are at least vaguely uncomfortable with the lack of transparency in the Bush administration and might not be hard to convince that they really are as bad as they seem.

I've probably left off something obvious, but I'll stop with these.

[fujiyama]

13. Great post...

Agree with much of what you had to say.

[wyldwolf]

14. I'm a moderate Clinton democrat and I reject your premise

I don't have time to write it out like hf_jai did in post #12. Just two questions: Do you have ANY stats to show moderate to conservative democrats feel this way? Or is this just another slam at moderate democrats?

[fujiyama]

19. I probably shouldn't...

have included moderate democrats in the same category as conservative democrats (those that voted Bush in '00). I was probably skewed considering this message board skews pretty much to the left of the party as a whole.

I myself am pretty liberal and am to the left of most of the public, but I'm probably a moderate compared to many on this board.

So it was no slam against moderate dems and no offense was intended to moderate democrats. After all, we know that Bush sure isn't moderate by any means.

[Adelante]

16. They won't IMO

Bush has to worry about moderate Republicans more than Kerry has to worry about moderate to conservative Democrats.

[no name no slogan]

17. None

Can we honestly say that ANY Dem who voted for Shrub in 2000 would vote for him now, after 3 milllion jobs have disappeared, the deficit has skyrocketed, and their taxes have increased?

No way. None. When hell becomes a Frigidaire dealership, maybe, but even then I'd doubt it.

[arewethereyet]

18. they vote taxes first, security second

and its a bad idea to talk guns and civil rights that they don't care about (disabled, race, females-care anything else-dont care).