Breaking: Gallup tracking poll reveals Obama poll numbers plunging in wake of plagarism scandal

[Tropics_Dude83]

Clinton was seven percentage points behind Obama in the Feb. 15-17 average. In Monday night's interviewing, Clinton's percentage of the vote of national voters was higher than Obama's, but there has been fluidity in the nightly tracking numbers over the past several days as Democrats nationally process the intense, often heated, nature of the campaign. Monday's news coverage of the Democratic campaign was replete with a focus on the Clinton campaign's charges that Obama had plagiarized material from Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick and other negative attacks on Obama by the Clinton campaign. It is unclear which, if any, of these factors could be responsible for changes in the candidates' standing.

The outcome of Tuesday's voting in Wisconsin will be the next major event to have the potential to affect the standing of the candidates.

The numbers:
46-45-Obama
Was 49-43 on Monday

Clinton outright led the one day Monday sample, the day that this "scandal" broke.

[H2O Man]

1. Clown Crossing

[corkhead]

16. !

:rofl:

[Bitwit1234]

29. STUPID

With all the crap that could be attributed to him, why would such a stupid thing as this matter.

[tabatha]

2. Link?

[Tropics_Dude83]

5. http://www.gallup.com of course-where else n/t

[thesubstanceofdreams]

3. Temporary bump due to MSM playing up of a non-issue

won't last (assuming it's not simply statistical noise)

[griffi94]

14. i wonder

if michelle obamas statement about never really been proud of her country will effect the texas primary....it didn't break in time for wisconsin..

[Rosa Luxemburg]

4. The Clintons have been bombarding the media in desperation

over the last few days not just the plague' thing, besides Obama came right back at her.

[Dogmudgeon]

6. That's a surprise

It barely qualifies as plagiarism, and I wouldn't even argue with someone who disputed that. I pegged it as a blunder.

Plunging? And Gallup tracking is pretty good (well, in the top half, anyway).

--p!

[NanBo]

7. Did you write this?

or is there a link. thanks

[NashVegas]

8. Hmmm

On one hand, if that's all it took, then support for Obama was very soft.

OR

This was much more of an issue for voters than Obama's campaign believed it would be, in their attempts to dismiss it as business as usual.

OR

Polls are polls.

[Tarc]

9. Dunno if staying within the margin of error equates to "plunging"

Of course I think he should drop like a stone because of this, but it depends on the media and how far they want to tip the halo.

[FrenchieCat]

10. Too bad that Hillary's scandal of hypocritism hasn't yet broke!

I don't understand why she can plagerize but Obama can't use two words "just words" from his friend-- :eyes:


Here's Hillary using word by word Blockbuster narative from John Edwards.
And She didn't even get permission!
http://www.oliverwillis.com/archives/2008/02/18/clintons-plagiarism-charge-fal/

But that's OK...since the voters don't know about this!

[billbuckhead]

11. Obama's just driving the Axelrod race car

They'll just keep auditioning people who can interpret rhetoric from TelePrompTers.

[Adelante]

32. I just saw Bill Clinton on TV with a big "Solutions for America" sign behind him

Wasn't that John Edwards' schtick in 2003 at one point?

[JackORoses]

12. wait until the Wednesday poll, when Obama victories in Wisconsin and Hawaii come into play

[Perry Logan]

13. Lesson for the day: What goes around comes around.

[kennetha]

15. It's not just plagiarism. It's also Michelle

Yesterday was probably the worst day ever that the Obama camp suffered on the trail and in the media. Tough stuff. I do agree that if they pull out a victory in Wisconsin today that will help them regain control of the narrative. But if they lose, it's a very big deal for them. The media will finally start peering behind the curtain. What they will find is Axelrod, the puppeteer who is shopping a strategy and rhetoric from empty vessel to empty vessel.

[jackson_dem]

44. Yup

[Qutzupalotl]

17. It's not plagiarism at all. It's mudslinging.

[thoughtcrime1984]

18. sample size?

there could be plenty of movement depending on who you call and how many you call. Hillary's campaign sickens me, and I know very few people up here who can even stand the thought of her as President.

[Obamaniac]

19. The Clintons are so desperate that I am embarrassed for them...

and their supporters.

Even if these numbers are true, and i'm not conceding that, the story has already died down. What's going to happen? Will there be an investigation or something? Will the FBI get involved? Meaning that the story has no legs. Tonight Obama will win in Wisconsin and Hawaii and then, officially, no one will give a rats ass.

We'll be back talking about what losers the Clintons are. That's the problem with the Clinton strategists, they suck at strategizing. They can't see 10 feet beyond.

[paulk]

22. you don't need to be embarrassed for me, "obamamaniac"

who's been here, what ? Two weeks?

I think you should be embarrassed for yourself and your over the top attacks on HRC while pretending to be an Obama supporter....

[Renew Deal]

20. The Gallup poll has done that a bunch of times.

I don't think there's much there.

[NJSecularist]

21. This is just random flunctation

We'll see if it had any effect in Wisconsin today, but after today it will pretty much have no effect on the race going forward.

[Tropics_Dude83]

24. NJSecularist,

Thanks for the reply NJSecularist. I've come to respect your analyses of these races and poll numbers enormously. Thanks for your valuable insight over the past weeks.

Question though:

Do you really think it's a coincidence that HRC would outright lead a sample on the day that this major "scandal" broke? I gotta think that he took at least somewhat of a hit or would you say that one can't really jump to that conclusion.

[NJSecularist]

33. Thanks for the compliment

:)

As for your question: I do think it is possible that the plagarism incident could have lead to this. But we do not know when these calls were made. Were the majority of the people surveyed asked earlier in the morning when only a few select people when about the Obama/Patrick incident? Possibly. But I would imagine that a majority of these people polled didn't even turn on the news before they got a call from Gallup.

I remember back a week before Super Tuesday, Obama won a day outright in one of these tracking polls. Obviously it wasn't until a few weeks latter that he officially took the lead. A one day flunctation happens. If this becomes a pattern over the next few days and Hillary retakes the lead, then yes I will say that the plagarism incident DEFINITIVELY had to do with Obama losing support in these polls.

But we need more data. One day of data is just not good enough. Especially with the small sample sizes they poll.

[Drunken Irishman]

39. If you look at the graph, you can see ups and downs throughout.

Right before Super Tuesday, one day Obama was down 7 points, it looked like Clinton was running away with it and the next day Obama was down only 2 points.

[NJSecularist]

40. Yup

As I said, we'll need more data. If this becomes a trend, then yes, Obama needs to worry. But realistically the damage can only be done tonight, since there isn't another contest for 2 weeks and people will forget about this soon.

[Drunken Irishman]

34. Historically, polls always tighten before a big election.

It's probably just a coincidence the bump happened to coincide with Clinton's petty smear attack. It's important to look at the overall trend, not just a day's polling. If by Thursday Obama is still losing ground, then it would be accurate to suggest he's plunging in the polls. However, one bad day does not suggest a trend.

[MadBadger]

26. I disagree

She was up on Monday, and I havent seen that much fluctuation in a non post Primary day. I think this thing hit, hopefully it wont stick.

[Drunken Irishman]

27. Well if it hit, he just lost Wisconsin, probably by 5-10 points.

And if that's the case, Clinton just found her comeback.

However, I'm not buying it.

[NJSecularist]

37. As I told Tropics, we'll need more data

If it's a one day thing, I'll dismiss it as a flunctation. But we need more data. One day just isn't good enough. Back when Hillary had the lead, Obama won a day or two of these tracking polls outright. It wasn't until a week or two later when he actually took the lead.

We'll see if Hillary gains momentum from this, but we can't say anything definitely right now on the impact of these accusations.

[Tropics_Dude83]

23. No Gallup wrote it

And oh I completely agree that if Obama wins Wisconsin, Hawaii, and WA, this will die off and he'll win the nomination. If, however, he LOSES Wisconsin, the media will pile on and HRC will be the nominee.

[Drunken Irishman]

25. heh, nice spinning there by Gallup.

If this trend continues, then I'll take notice. However, one day often proves to be an anomaly.

[nickn777]

28. The Rasmussen daily poll shows no movement due to...

your idiotic, desperate smear campaign.

46 -O - 42- C

Has been + 4, or +3 Obama since Feb 16th.

[MadBadger]

36. Are you referring to the OP or Hillary's Campaign?

Cuz if its the OP, you should apologize immediately for getting your facts wrong.

Not to mention Gallup is a much more reliable polling firm than Rasmussen is.

[SheWhoMustBeObeyed]

30. As a Clinton supporter, I doubt the "scandal" has anything to do w/changing #'s

First off, the supposed scandal is bullshit. It was a dumb way to go.

Secondly, the reported change in numbers hardly constitutes a plunge.

Thirdly, races tighten up right before the vote.

So...yeah. Bullshit.

[suston96]

31. Wait until the Michelle Obama "I never been proud to be an American till now" breaks....nt

[Dogmudgeon]

38. That's going to hurt

Michelle Obama has a lot of admirable qualities. Intelligence is one of them. But shooting from the hip is not an intelligent thing to do in a political campaign.

The actual blowback will depend on the press. I suspect they will try to bury it until tomorrow.

--p!

[jenmito]

41. Only with crazy RWers. Others knew exactly what she meant. But the press has NOT buried it

at all. It's being talked about every few minutes on the news channels.

[Metric System]

42. But aren't they a part of Obama's base? You know, his Obamacons?

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

43. Keep pushing it...

[goldcanyonaz]

47. I was very insulted by her comments.

[MrRobotsHolyOrders]

35. THE GALLUP TRACKING POLL IS ALWAYS RIGHT

It's why Hillary and Mitt Romney are going to be the best general election face-off EVER!!!!!!!!

[Hamlette]

45. what a tragedy that people would change their vote over something so silly

[jackson_dem]

46. This shows how much of his "support" is soft. He is to a large extent a pop culture phenomenon

If he lost this much after being busted for plagiarism how much will he lose after the rethugs are done with him if we nominate him?

[GumboYaYa]

48. ROFLMAO...watch what happens today.

These desperate attacks are a last gasp to find footing before the whole campaign goes down the drain. It is sad, but funny at the same time. The end is near...it can't happen soon enough. I can't wait to get DU back for the DUers and be rid of all the campaign blowhards on both sides until the next primary battle.