Interesting scenario

[Redbear]

The following includes a lot of guessing, but is an interesting jumping off point for how things "might" play out:

Pledged delegates as of 2/15/08 : Obama 1133 Clinton 996

2/19 Wisconsin narrow for Obama Hawaii Big for Obama - Obama +14

3/4 Clinton wins Texas big Ohio real big and VT and RI small - Clinton +98

3/8-3/10 Wyoming and Mississippi Obama wins Obama +3

4/22 Clinton wins PA big Clinton +50

5/6 Obama wins NC and IN Obama + 13

5/13-5/20 WV, OR, KY are split even

6/3 Obama wins MT and SD Obama + 6

6/7 Clinton wins Puerto Rico Clinton +13

In this scenario, pledged delegates end up Obama 1593 Clinton 1593

[Johnny__Motown]

1. +98 from TX OH VT and RI ?

good luck with that


Yes there is a tiny statistical chance that they end up tied but it isn't likely

[Redbear]

2. If, and yes its a big if,

Rasmussen's +16 for Clinton in Texas and Quinnipac's +21 for Clinton hold, Sen. Clinton will get a lot of delegates that day.

In a state as big as Texas if you get 60% of the delegates you are up +47.

[crispini]

3. I don't get your math.

Texas has 126 delegates awarded on primary day, and 67 awarded much, much later in the process. How does that fit with + 98?

[earthlover]

4. Let's assume hillary wins TX with 60% of the delegates....

60%= 75.6 to Hillary. 50.4 to Obama. Basically, hillary gains 25 delegates on Obama as a result of a 60% victory.

Do the math!

[Redbear]

6. You are only awarding the delegates from the primary

The primary and caucus together end up with a larger number.

[Redbear]

5. The caucus takes place March 4th as well and while those delegates

aren't officially awarded until later the process is set up to award the most delegates to the candidate who had the most support in the March 4 caucuses.

Most of the counts we see for states are delegate estimates and thats what I expect the networks etc to do with Texas and Ohio on March 4. They will add the delegates from the primary vote to the delegates they estimate the candidates will end up with from the caucus process.

[sandnsea]

7. Obama will win PR and OR big

So I can see why people are saying there's no way Hillary can win. Those states that have large groups of people who dislike her aren't going to magically change. Her only hope is that something happens to disillusion people towards Obama. Thanks for the math!