After the John Lewis Defection, Hillary is now wasting her time continuing her campaign

[Joe the Revelator]

This move by John Lewis effectively ends her campaign. Halperin says it better the I can:

HALPERIN’S TAKE: Why John Lewis’ Defection Matters So MuchLewis is a universally respected, historic figure who is the first prominent Democrat to go from squarely in Clinton’s camp to Obama’s. The rationale he gave to the New York Times strikes at the heart of the argument that has been circulating among many wavering, undecided superdelegates, and among those now in Clinton’s camp who are feeling pressure to switch. Floodgates could open. The timing could not be worse for Clinton. And those in the party and the press who want to write off her chances will be able to make a big deal about this development. Take whatever you thought Clinton’s chances of winning the nomination before Lewis’ decision and divide that number by as much as two — those are the odds of her winning now.

[loveangelc]

1. who is Halperin?

Hillary is still very much in this game. She wins TX, OH, and PA and she can go on until the end.

[QC]

2. Halperin is a knuckledragging rightwinger who works for ABC.

At one time he was not much liked here, but now he is treated like the Delphic Oracle or something.

[Shine]

9. "Delphic Oracle"

:rofl: for some reason that really cracked me up.

[QC]

14. Glad you liked it! n/t

[UALRBSofL]

31. Delphic Oracle, now that's a new one

You think your smart don't you. :think:

[Joe the Revelator]

3. Not if her super delegates abandon her. It almost mathmatically impossible for her to take the...

pledged delegate lead. She had to depend on the supers. They are now leaving her.

[loveangelc]

17. but she can try and convince them if she wins oh, pa, and tx (tx will be harder for both)

[bigtree]

38. that's a lie. You've based that prediction on polls and your own view of your candidate

but the votes have yet to be cast. This is yet another post from you attempting to suppress the votes in those contests by attempting to discourage readers here or embolden Obama supporters. What an amazingly petty pursuit. Why are you so afraid to let the rest of the election play out?

[jasmine621]

4. You know, I get a different impression of the John Lewis change.

I believe he is changing his SD vote, not his own personal vote, because he wants to reflcet the will of the people, his constitutents. I disagree that he should do this because he became a committed delegate or a Clinton delegate long before Obama showed significant momentum. Personally, I think he is doing this more to save his own position for his re-election. Many blacks will not understand his position and hold it against him, especially after the way the media has made anything anti-Obama racist.

[Joe the Revelator]

5. It doesn't matter why he did it, but it puts to bed the meme that Super Delegates will give Hillary

the nomination. One of her biggest and vocal supporters has left her. More are sure to follow.

[CoffeeCat]

11. Clinton support is stitched together...

...with loads of fear an intimidation.

Once people realize that you no longer have to kow tow to the Clintons--as others
stand up to them--the fear will melt and many of those supporters will fold like
cheap card tables.

[elixir]

32. Intimidation? How scary is the clinton camp? Nobody seems to be intimidated by them!

[Renew Deal]

6. A lot of people don't like the Clinton's

There was an article about this yesterday. A lot of people don't like the Clintons. They signed on because she was a sure thing. They've been thinking about changing their minds. Lewis is the second switcher today. There might be a third today.

[elixir]

34. A lot of people don't like Obama

There was an article about this yesterday. A lot of people don't like Obama. They signed on because he was a new thing. They've been thinking about changing their minds. Lots of people will be sorry they switched when she takes the nomination.

[Renew Deal]

42. Hillary will never be president.

Your graphic is amusing. She is unelectable (obviously). So you're wasting your time.

[GoldieAZ49]

44. your sign should read

Mad President wannabe, get used to THAT!

American Evitia, NOT!

[psychopomp]

45. That graphic..

...ouch. You might want to rethink your sloganeering--oh, never mind.

[thunder rising]

7. I just thought he didn't count.

[NJSecularist]

8. Hillary is at the will of the super delegates

The nomination is out of her hands.


This is not a good sign for her. Every single superdelegate she loses incrementally lowers her chances of winning the nomination.

[jefferson_dem]

10. TPM agrees.

...

Lewis stopped short of formally switching his endorsement over to Obama, but said he would make a decision on that matter within a few days. Lewis also said that he and other lawmakers would meet soon to decide just how they should involve themselves in the nomination fight — and he cited the super-delegate battle as a pitfall that could weaken the party's hopes this Fall.

In short, it looks like the Hillary campaign probably can't count on the super-delegates to save them, should they lose out in the elected delegate race. So if it becomes clear that Obama ends up with an insurmountable lead — or Hillary, for that matter — there could be a strong message from super-delegates that the loser has to concede defeat and close up shop.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/civil_rights_icon_john_lewis_s.php

[Metric System]

12. Interesting Jesse Jackson Jr. comments:

In an interview, Cleaver offered a glimpse of private conversations.

He said Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. of Illinois had recently asked him "if it comes down to the last day and you're the only superdelegate? ... Do you want to go down in history as the one to prevent a black from winning the White House?

"I told him I'd think about it," Cleaver concluded. Jackson, an Obama supporter, confirmed the conversation, and said the dilemma may pose a career risk for some black politicians. "Many of these guys have offered their support to Mrs. Clinton, but Obama has won their districts. So you wake up without the carpet under your feet. You might find some young primary challenger placing you in a difficult position" in the future, he added.

http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/2/14/225232/180

[Joe the Revelator]

13. Or it might just be superdelegates doing what they do...supporting the winner.

[Exultant Democracy]

24. If Obama won my district by 80-90% I would be singing a different tune too.

[bluestateguy]

15. A lot of battle scarred Republicans would warn you not to ever count the Clintons out

Nor should we.

Overconfidence is dangerous.

[RiverStone]

20. I agree 100%

Hillary is moving into desperation mode - and is calling in every political favor she and Bill have out there.

This is not over and Obama must win in TX or OH or PA to lock it up --- just one of the 3 will do it.

My guess is TX is the best bet.

Until then, Hillary will blast ahead assuming she can still win.

Obama must not let up for a second!

[enough already]

33. Her support is a mile wide and an inch deep

They've pissed off a lot of people over the years. If she isn't a sure thing, there's no reason to stay on. I expect Mr. Lewis will officially announce his change as part of a larger group of his colleagues in the very near future.

[suston96]

16. Oh, gee - whatta surprise - black politicians are switching to a black presidential candidate...nt

[Joe the Revelator]

18. You serious, Clark?

[suston96]

28. My name ain't Clark. But I am serious. It would be no surprise if the Black Caucuses....

...in Congress and in all state legislatures showed unanimous support for a black Presidential candidate.

[eridani]

19. Wrong. I don't get this bullshit of deciding on a nominee--

--6 months before the actual convention.

[Joe the Revelator]

21. Most years it would have been over 3 weeks ago.

[eridani]

22. Wrong again

Most years, we would have only heard from Iowa and New Hampshire by now.

[Independent-Voter]

40. Indeed - anyone else tired of the 1 year campaign before the national election?

All told, I'd rather have all the primaries in August, with the GE in November. This constant election cycle sucks.

[DemGa]

23. Yawn

:boring:

[ruggerson]

25. Unfortunately, Wolsh, the NYT story is being denied by Lewis

what a bummer for you.

[Tropics_Dude83]

27. Yep it's not true

Lewis is still a backer of Senator Clinton per WP.

[Cameron27]

43. Yep,

Lewis denied the rumor.

[bellasgrams]

26. That's because BO offered him more money.

[architect359]

29. ...and you know this - how??? eom

[ElsewheresDaughter]

30. it matters NOT...yes I am sure it has disappionted her but it was NOT a death blow, friend

[GalleryGod]

37. Hi,E.D. ! Well...an "Insurgency" by definition leaves you "bleeding by a thousand little cuts"

This has occurred since Iowa.



RIDE!

TO DEN-VER !!!!!!!!!!

[GalleryGod]

35. In N.J. Super delegates, whose CD's went heavy Obama are getting flooded

to "vote the district consensus" OR...face a primary.OUCH!
Obamanistas fight TUFF!!!!:rofl: :woohoo: :rofl:

[bigtree]

36. so you're speaking for the voters in the states ahead?

their votes don't matter?

[OzarkDem]

39. Most people don't know who he is

it won't have much of an impact at all.

[Enrique]

41. if he does switch, it will hurt Hillary

but analysis from Halperin about Democrats isn't reliable.