new Quinnipiac: Clinton has double-digit leads in Ohio, Penn.

[npincus]

Obama supporter checking in: a cautinary note- it ain't over yet, and over-confidence must be avoided.


http://news.theage.com.au/clinton-leading-obama-in-pennsylvania/20080215-1sdv.html

Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has double-digit leads over Barack Obama in Ohio and Pennsylvania, both crucial states in upcoming primaries, according to Quinnipiac University poll released.

Clinton, a New York senator, has lost eight straight nominating contests to Illinois Sen. Obama, but leads him 55 per cent to 34 per cent among likely Democratic primary voters in Ohio, the poll found.

Among Ohio Democrats, women back Clinton, 56 per cent to 30 per cent for Obama, while men back Clinton 52 per cent to 42 per cent, the poll found.

White Democrats favour Clinton 64 per cent to 28 per cent, while Obama leads 64 to 17 per cent among black voters, according to the survey.

"Ohio is as good a demographic fit for Sen. Clinton as she will find," Peter Brown, an Quinnipiac University Polling Institute official, said in a statement.

[gaiilonfong]

1. Quinnipiac is a ReTHUGlican polling outfit

They helped LIEberman win in Conn. so take them with a grain of salt.....

[robbedvoter]

34. Which hates Hillary with a passion, so...

They were polling her against post 9.11 Giuliani - when no race was contemplated against them...They said she would lose in 2000 against Lazio. I know Quinnipiac, better than you do. They wouldn't lie FOR Hillary.

[Freddie Stubbs]

40. How exactly did they help Lieberman win?

:shrug:

[stahbrett]

2. Obama was under 20% just a few weeks ago - he'll close the gap even more before election day

In my opinion, based on past elections where Hillary started off really far ahead in the polls, and Obama had time to campaign.

[Independent-Voter]

3. Ohio's an open primary, right?

Why didn't they give the overall % of likely voters in the Democratic Primary (that would include independents)?


Whatever - Ohio, as always, will find a way to fuck this up. Thanks for 8 years of Bush you idiots.

[NJSecularist]

4. I highly doubt when it is all said and done on March 4th

That Hillary will win the white women vote by over 30 points.

Obama has a lot of work to do, but I still think he has a chance to win the state.

[SoFlaJet]

5. Obama should just concede

we all know Hillary has challenged "to meet him in Texas" If I were Barack Obama I'd be shaking in my boots even MORE after getting over the shaking for being so afraid to debate...this is a very fearful day in the Obama camp

[Waya]

20. Concede?

Why? He is ahead - way ahead. Hillary needs to win Texas and Ohio with at least 60% or above - and that's not gonna happen. No matter what they report. Concede, my foot. If anything, it's Hillary that should graciously bow out - for the good of the Country. Because if she gets the nomination - McCain's gonna be President..........

[SoFlaJet]

23. yea I don't think the sarcasm

came through good enough there Waya...sorry

[mckeown1128]

30. ummm... he is debating Hillary in Texas.

Don't forget that Obama was behind in CA, NY, NJ by 30 points at this point before those elections.

[RiverStone]

32. Oh yea - shaking in his boots after 8 straight wins!

Maybe just trying on new ones?

Like the ones he will wear while beating Hillary down in Texas. :hi:

[Yael]

6. Excellent!! Just how we want them to report.

:evilgrin:

[npincus]

13. True. Perception that Obama needs turnout

will encourage turnout.

[Renew Deal]

14. Exactly

Quinipiac is underestimating black voters at minimum. Also, Obama has done better than that with white voters.

[jefferson_dem]

7. She's the frontrunner and should be expected to win, by large margins.

I just hope Obama can keep it close.

If Hillary doesn't win both those states (if she makes it to PA) by double digits, she's finished.

[ShortnFiery]

8. Remember that polls are "a snapshot" not "a predictor" of the particular population electorate. eom.

[Thrill]

9. Just where Obama wants it

He has yet to even campaign in either state

[Botany]

10. I live in Ohio

Obama will do fine here .... he has a better organization and the demographic
breakdown of voters will help Obama.

[Window]

29. That's great to hear.

I truly hate polls.




Peace:thumbsup:

[Botany]

Hillary's is in a world of hurt

http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,171327...

This is not the race that Clinton thought she would be running. Her campaign was built on inevitability, a haughty operation so confident it would have the nomination wrapped up by now that it didn't even put a field organization in place for the states that were to come after the megaprimary on Feb. 5.

[Window]

38. Absolutely!

That inevitability/over-confidence is exactly why she's in this predicament.


Peace:thumbsup:

[Extend a Hand]

11. I wonder if the poll takers only called land-lines?

most younger people don't even have them anymore.

[WinkyDink]

25. And you know this how? Do these "younger people" live at home----with land-lines?

In apartments/condos---with land-lines? In college dorms---with land-lines?

I doubt that that many have cut the cord, so to speak.

[MadBadger]

27. Most college kids really dont have land lines.

[Independent-Voter]

35. You don't get out much, do you?

While I'm sure pollsters are taking the cell-phone thing into consideration, it's ignorant as hell to think that landline use among the under 30 set is anywhere near what it was even 5 years ago.

[Extend a Hand]

37. I have kids in college

That's what I was thinking of. I guess I really should have said college kids. But I would still be surprised if most younger people starting out on their own were choosing the extra expense of a land line in addition to a cell phone.

Mostly I was just wondering if pollsters had come up with a way to talk to cell phone users. I got rid of my land line two years ago and haven't been polled since. I use to get polled all the time.

[Independent-Voter]

41. That's going to be the tough nut to crack. I haven't had a land line in 10 years, and most of

our friends are about the same recently. With digital phones coming online, polling is going to have to change with the times.

[MadBadger]

12. The Key Point: FEBRUARY 6-12: ALL Polling done Before Potomac, and Some before Saturday's Sweep

Dont know how Accurate that is now.

[Yael]

18. Oh, its accurate. It is VERY VERY accurate

;)

[bluestateguy]

15. I'm having a hard time taking that poll seriously

They "poll" a few hundred people, yet there will be hundreds of thousands of people voting.

[NJSecularist]

19. The only poll I am going to take seriously is the SurveyUSA poll on March 3

They've been spot on.

Obama still has 3 weeks to campaign there.

[Independent-Voter]

22. SurveyUSA has been on top of things this election cycle for both parties

Got to give them credit for that. They've been the best by far.

[Adelante]

16. The Quinnipiac University poll was taken Feb. 6 through 12, after the "Super Tuesday" contests

We'll see what the next few have to say.

[Rock_Garden]

17. I think we've made it through the wormhole.

[MadBadger]

21. Really? How so?

[Rock_Garden]

43. Fewer caucus states.

[WinkyDink]

24. I've said it before: HRC will take PA., without question.

We are hard-core Union, Old-School Democrats.
And we remember when the original JFK passed through.

[Alhena]

26. The problem is there is a 6-week gap before Pennsylvania- the Democratic party

won't be standing still in those 6 weeks, waiting for Pennsylvania. Obama will have a 100+ delagate lead and a lot of superdelegates will defect his way during that time.

Pennsylvania is very favorable for Hillary with its demographics and closed primary- I don't deny that. But it would be much more helpful for Hillary's campaign and its ability to regain momentum if it were 2 weeks after Ohio instead of 6 weeks.

[WinkyDink]

28. Possibly true. But Obama's losing that late won't look good for him, either.

[Yael]

33. Hi neighbor

:hi:

I think if Obama pulls off upsets in Ohio and Texas and then parks his campaign here for 6 weeks -- he has a real shot.

Take a gander at this:

Hillary PA meetup and upcoming events page: http://hillaryclinton.com/hq/pennsylvania/

Obama PA meetup and upcoming events page: http://my.barackobama.com/page/event/search_results?type=advanced&orderby=day&state=pa&limit=50

(In all fairness, her camp just added a "PA" link this past weekend)

[Vinca]

31. Obama's just starting to work in those states, so I'm not surprised.

Look how quickly polls changed in other states. He might not win them, but he'll have a good showing.

[Barack_America]

36. The Ohio poll is bogus.

The Ohio primary is also open to independents. I have found the methodology to this poll and they did NOT sample independents. They sampled "564 Democratic likely voters", meaning Democrats likely to vote. So, no independents.

Personally, I'm sick of these primary polls that don't consider the rules of that state's primary before predicting the results. It's beyond sloppy.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1142

[Alhena]

39. Nice job, Kristi- good catch. Independents will be very important there

[Barack_America]

42. Thanks. I think it's actually good for Obama.

I think a lot of his supporters were starting to get a little lax. I know I was, and I'm in PA, so there's no excuse for that. The PA poll, after all, is real considering our primary is closed.

Time to get cracking!

[thoughtcrime1984]

44. He's been outperforming most polls, esp. after he campaigns

in a state for awhile. He has almost 3 weeks to sway Ohio and Texas, and over 2 MONTHS to work on PA.

[TexasObserver]

45. Quinnipac is not to be trusted. Too often involved in trying to push an election one direction.

They build poor models either by incompentence or plan.