How Barack Obama Can Win Texas

[Renew Deal]

<snip>
As I briefly discussed in my original analysis, there are 6 Senate Districts that are in South Texas and/or on the Mexican border. The key to remember, though, is that 4 of those 6 Senate Districts -- including the Laredo and San Antonio districts, the two cities with the largest bloc of Hispanic voters -- only have 4 delegates apiece. If a District only has 4 delegates, a candidate must win enough of a vote so that "rounding up" will get them 75% of the delegates.

Imagine there's a Senate District with 4 delegates. Here's how many delegates a candidate would get, based on voting percentages:

Voting % -- # of Delegates
0.00 - 12.5% -- 0 delegates
12.51% - 37.5% -- 1 delegate
37.51% - 62.5% -- 2 delegates
62.51% - 87.5% -- 3 delegates
87.51% - 100% -- 4 delegates

Key Point: Unless Senator Clinton can gain 62.51% of the vote in the four biggest South Texas Districts, she and Senator Obama will split most of the South Texas (largely Latino) vote.
<snip>

Lots more at: http://www.burntorangereport.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4937

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

1. Or just do what he's been doing...

and wind up winning the state by 20 or 30 points.

[COFoothills]

2. Obama IS going to win TX..

...bank on it.

Ohio is a tougher get for him. But I'm sure TX goes his way in the end.

A win for him in one of the two pretty much seals this thing us, so either way is fine by me.

[loveangelc]

6. "Obama IS going to win TX.."

how do you figure...?

[TexasObserver]

3. This is true. They'll split a lot of districts, and he'll pick up some extras in selected districts

[WolverineDG]

4. I'm certain certain Texas party elders

are kicking themselves in the butts right now for not working harder in the last 2 cycles to get the voter turnout UP in South Texas. heh

dg

[cd3dem]

5. get republicans to vote for him so they can have an inexperience candidate to run against

[Purveyor]

7. Some worthy observations from Rep. Chet Edwards (TX) and Sen. Sherrod Brown (OH):

Rep. Chet Edwards, a Democrat from Texas, cautioned yesterday that Texans never thought their March primary would make much of a difference, so they are only now starting to tune in.

And Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat from Ohio, said neither Clinton nor Obama has had to really contest a struggling industrial state where voters are focused almost wholly on the economy.

[GarbagemanLB]

8. Isn't it an open primary too?

That can only help Obama.

[cd3dem]

12. so if Obama wins by getting republicans to fix the race?

is that good?

[calico1]

9. Does TX have an open primary? n/t

[cloudbase]

11. Indeed it does,

and that raises the possibility of the republicans crossing over and voting for Clinton, as she's the one they'd rather face in the GE.

[calico1]

13. Which is why they crossed over and voted for her in

VA and MD, right?

[Alhena]

10. That is an OUTSTANDING point ... that system favors inertia