OUCH another poll (ARG) showing Kerry beating Bush 50-43

[PA-DEM]

This explains why Bush is going negative already.

John Kerry has increased his lead over George W. Bush among Americans registered to vote according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush, 50% say they would vote for Kerry and 43% say they would vote for Bush. In February, Kerry was at 48% and Bush was at 46%. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 48% say they would vote for Kerry, 42% say they would vote for Bush, and 2% say they would vote for Nader.

The results presented here are based on 770 completed telephone interviews conducted among a nationwide random sample of registered voters. The interviews were completed March 9 through 11, 2004. The theoretical margin of error for the total sample is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Support for Bush has softened slightly among Republicans since February.



http://americanresearchgroup.com/presballot/

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. Damn. He really is going down.

Damn. Hot DAMN!

[Beetwasher]

2. And the Mo is Still Going Kerry's Way

Nice!

[tridim]

If trends continue

Kerry might not have to ever run a negative ad against his opponent. Bush is doing a fine job running his own negative ads against himself.

I have to admit I'm enjoying this campaign much more that I thought I would. As long as Kerry stays on the offensive and sticks to his guns he's going to win in the greatest landslide in American history.

[frank frankly]

18. good point!

BushCo has to do so much damage control from their horrible lying ads that Kerry could run 100% positive ads!!!

if they don't steal it, they will lose bigger than every before and lose much of congress!!!

:bounce:

(long way to go, though, but since we can't afford to los, this is very reassuring)

[Adenoid_Hynkel]

23. wait until kerry's convention bounce

than it will really look dire for dumbya

[wryter2000]

3. 7 points

If that held in the election, it'd be a landslide, no?

:bounce:

[PA-DEM]

5. You add this to the new CNN and WashPost poll

and Kerry is easily up 7-9 points.

[cjbuchanan]

4. A great number to see

Dems - Bush - 5% Kerry- 87%

A lot of people were worried that a contested primary would hurt our nominee, well this number proves that thought false.

Second greatest number to see.

Independents - Bush - 42% Kerry - 51%

Let's keep the pressure on Bush (ie. Just show Americans who he actually is) and he will be gone come November.

[DIKB]

6. <butterflies>

Already getting excited/nervous about the upcoming election. So many conservatives are turning on *, while a huge number of liberals have been motivated.

There is no fire under the elephant's butt, what's gonna draw them to the polls ? Let's hope nothing will.

[GRClarkesq]

7. Don't get overconfidant

Duakakis was up on Bush41 by 10 points too

[Beetwasher]

9. At this Point in the Campaign?

Bush 41 wasn't and incumbent at the time either and the Chimp is moving in the WRONG direction.

But it's still true that we can't be overconfident, if anything, we must work even harder. We need to kick the Chimp in the nuts some more.

[The Magistrate]

19. That Is The Difference, My Friend

When no contestant holds the office vied for, the dynamics of the race are very different.

When an incumbent is running, the election is first and foremost about whether he or she will be retained in office. When an incumbent begins the campaign trailing, it signals tremendous disatisfaction with the incumbent's performance in office, and that people are looking to see the incumbent removed from office. As this is a decision built up over the several years of incumbency, it is difficult to reverse in a few months of paid advertisements and speechifying.

"There will be a holiday in our street soon!"

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[lancdem]

16. It is a long wat till November

But Kerry is not Dukakis. Dukakis didn't fight back against Lee Atwater's dirty tricks; Kerry is running a much more aggressive, proactive campaign. I think he's doing an excellent job so far.

BTW, anyone else notice that with Nader included, Bush loses indepedents by 11 points instead of 9? I know Kerry's support among Dems declines a bit, but I found the effect on indys interesting.

[flpoljunkie]

8. Hot damn! Bad news for Bushco!

It is beginning to look like the Rethugs hundreds of millions in campaign booty are not going to be enough to put lipstick on this pig of an administration.

Go John Kerry!

[Memekiller]

10. Remember all the war chest * had in 2004?

He spent it all in a couple of weeks to nuke McCain. Bush is a paper Tiger. The second anyone dares to challenge him, he crumples. Why'd it take us three years to try?

[ArkDem]

12. It is 2004, right now.

.

[ArkDem]

11. It's over.

.

[mobuto]

14. No it isn't

Don't take that attitude. The last 48 hours are all that matter. We can't afford to become complacent. Lets keep this ship moving.

[tridim]

20. There's no danger of DU getting complacent

I think Bush is done too, but I'm certainly not going to quit fighting for our side. DU will never quit, we'll just keep piling on.

[PATRICK]

22. The rest of the mountain range

All the Congressional seat and state governments slanted and gerrymandered to the GOP, that crippling choice between paralyzing "parity" gridlock and GOP dominance is the rest of the victory.

[mobuto]

13. ARG is a good firm

and their numbers generally hold. However please remember that these are registered voters, not likely voters, and Democrats usually have something of advantage among registered voters that they don't realize when all the hard-core Republicans turn out disproportionately at the polls.

This is interesting: while Nader draws support from Kerry among Democrats, he draws support from Bush among independents. Now Nader obviously hurts Kerry more than he hurts Bush, but I still don't understand why those independents behave the way they do here.

Mar 11 Bush Kerry Nader Undecided

All voters 42% 48% 2% 8%

Republicans 81% 11% - 8%
Democrats 5% 81% 5% 7%
Independents 40% 51% 1% 8%

[PA-DEM]

15. Well

It's alot better than "Adult" voters. Which some pollsters use. Now we all know 53% of adults don't vote. Besides Gallups last poll was of likely voters and he was up by 8 points.

[lancdem]

17. Traditionally, that's true among likely voters

but in this election so far, it appears Kerry does better among likely voters than registered voters, because the Dems are super-energized.

[WI_DEM]

21. for the first time in a poll

that I can remember democratic support for the nominee is stronger than GOP support for Bush. Good news.