Is Bush getting the upper hand?

[T_i_B]

Let's hope not, although Phillip James, former senior Democratic party strategist thinks so.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uselections2004/comment/story/0,14259,1168033,00.html

The fact that President Bush has entered the political fray so early in this election cycle tells you two things. Firstly, it is going to be a close election. Secondly, this president is not going to wait for his advisors to lay out an attack strategy.

Political pundits have noted with some dismay how early and vigorously President Bush has personally taken on the job of taking the shine off John Kerry. Democratic and Republican strategists alike have warned that Bush risks losing the power of the incumbency by coming down to the level of his challenger.

Democrats would be foolish to crow over Bush's decision to take the gloves off from the get-go. Far from betraying a chink in his authority as president, Bush's aggressive approach signals he relishes the fight to come.

And in the week since John Kerry became the presumptive Democratic nominee, the initiative has shifted back to the White House.

[ithacan]

1. Bush is "personally" leading this?? That's great!!!

let's hope he does that because his ignorance and arrogance are sure to do him in!

[izzie]

5. Well for sure he is not running the country.

He did not last long in that and running is more fun. Do you think he will give up his weekly vacations and naps?

[H2O Man]

7. exactly!

This is the deep-thinker that put the wonderful baseball-steroid pep talk into the State of the Onion address. The American public needs to see that this is Zippy the Cone Head sitting in the Oval Office, not a credible leader.

[dennis4868]

24. Anyone....

who thinkd Bush is "personally" leading this is nuts and does not understand what is going on in this WH the past 3 years.....

[peacewarrior]

25. Don't Underestimate Bush!

Do not under estimate Bush. If I was in a battle I would want my opponents to under estimate me. How do you know he's not putin on a show like Regan did? Does anyone remember the Andy Griffith show where Andy would pretend to be a country hick sheriff and then outsmart the big city criminals?

I believe Sadam and Bin Laden underestimated Bush and look where that got them. Just keep thinking Bush is an idiot and we'll see the same thing in '04 as we did in '02 and '00.

[shivaji]

31. no kidding...I remember gov Ann of Texas very well

[lazarus]

2. well

there is likely a reason he's a former senior strategist, isn't there?

I think Bush has entered the fray early because he can't do anything but campaign and raise money and go to war.

[Bob3]

3. more stuff that gives gibberish a bad name

in the last week exactly what has * done to shift the initiative has shifted back to the White House? The ad campaign has blown up in his face - his choice of Manufactuing Czar turns out to be a union buster who outsouced American Jobs to China - Gay Marriage continues to be a non-starter - the Market is tanking and there are still no jobs.

He my "relish" the fight - something I rather doubt given his personalty - lazy and a bully - but if this is taking back the initiative let's have more of it.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

4. Kerry has replied to every attack

with the truth about Bush. Kerry will continue to do this. And he will have lots of help. Every one of us needs to tell the truth on Bush to everyone we meet. Go to websites, download flyers that tell about Bush's lies, and distribute them. Have a demonstration-we're having one about Social Security tomorrow. Bush can't stop Kerry, and he can't stop the grassroots movement to get the Shrub out of the White House and back to Crawford. (My sympathies to Texas, but it must be done!)

[BootinUp]

8. this article spins better than a maytag washer

nothing but spin

[BeatleBoot]

6. Upper Hand?

Bush is attacking Kerry in March because Bush is in deep poop politically.

The truth shall set us free.

[belle]

26. Agree that it's important not to underestimate, though.

There's a fine line between "we've got it in the bag" and "oh, shit, we're never going to win this," which is what we all need to be walking.

[patricia92243]

9. What we are up against is a person who could change talk of nuculer.....

weapons in his State Union speech to a harmless "thirteen little words".

And of course, when it was put into this harmless light - it just went away.

To me that is representative of what we are up against - say something and it will be true - and Bush is already doing that- good jobs that pay good.
And people will believe him.

[July]

10. Close election?

Why does Bush going on the attack now suggest the election will be close? Am I missing something?

[RogueTrooper]

11. It would seem that Philip James is an adherent

of the "successful" November 02 election strategy the Democrat's employed. I am not sure how running away from national security is going to help the Democrats come November. George W Bush is going to use the politics of fear to whip the US electorate into supporting his mendacious administration. By needlessly conceding political ground to the Bush campaign we will loose like we did in 2002. I would suggest the Mr. James has a very poor understanding of the current thinking of the average American voter.

Looking at Ray Taxiera's analysis...

Bush is currently leading Kerry when it comes to the "War on Terror", by 21 points, but he is losing to Kerry when it comes to Iraq, albeit by only one point. My thinking is that Bush's electoral advantage on the War on Terror rests upon a house of cards. IMHO a sustained attack, by Kerry and his surrogates should see Bush's Terror advantage start to crumble.

Mathew Gross put is succintly.

"Attacking your opponent's weaknesses is the easy part. Attacking where he's strong is the key to victory."

[PROGRESSIVE1]

13. People trust * to "protect" us from terrorists and they personally....

think that he's "one of us". :eyes:

The seeds of doubt have been planted and the people have noticed.

George Bush has no credibility, in fact, he is the credibility gap!

:kick:

[RogueTrooper]

14. But he has a lot of money to but the truth

and we should be warey of being complacent.

[T_i_B]

15. I do not buy the idea...

...that Bush is strong on security. Al-Quaida are one of the prime suspects in the Madrid bombing and as far as we are aware, Bin Laden has not been found. Add to that the fact that Bush has lied America into an unjust war in Iraq that has resulted in a quagmire and it becomes apparent that there is plenty to attack Bush on when it comes to security concerns if you ask me.

Phillip James writes the following stuff at the end of the article...

In a private moment with union supporters on Wednesday Kerry forgot he was wearing a radio microphone and let slip his animus toward the Bush White House: "These guys are the most crooked ... lying group of people I have ever seen."

Those are exactly the kind of fighting words he needs to pepper throughout his campaign speeches. And when the White House demands an apology you know they hit the mark.

But he seems shy of exposing the area where the liars and crooks of the GOP have done the most damage to the security of the planet and prestige of America. Phillip James may percive national security as Bush's main strengh but out here it seems remarkably weak.

[RogueTrooper]

17. I agree with you TIB

I am a little disapointed with The Guardian. They have a huge US online readership and this schmuck is the best that they can do?

Blogistan seems to feel the same as you regarding attacking Bush on National Security.

[T_i_B]

21. Well....

The Grauniad does employ David Aaronvitch as a colummist, so it's not like they keep away from this type of schmuk all the time is it?

I guess the former senior Democratic party strategist part got them. :eyes:

[Guaranteed]

12. I'm not seeing that at all.

I'm not even a hardcore Kerry supporter, but he seems to be doing very well right now. IF Bush has the initiative, he sure hasn't been very effective with it.

[The Magistrate]

16. Mr. James Is Talking Twaddle

Personal engagement this early by an occupant of the Oval Office is a sign things are going very badly for that side. It necessarily forfeits some of the advantages of incumbency by reducing him to the stature of a mere aspirant for office, rather than the holder of it.

Nor does it seem the enemy holds the initiative just now, but rather that the enemy's efforts are finding little traction. The poor quality of the enemy's effort is becoming part of the story-line, rather than imposing the line they aim to define upon the narrative. Surprise expressed at the fighting qualities of Sen. Kerry, and the inspirational effect of this on our Party, are the focus of coverage and comment. It will not take long for these two things to harden solid to become the conventional view, and convince people on all sides and in the middle as well that the criminals of the '00 Coup can be beaten, which will quickly lead to the widespread conviction they will be beaten....

"Desperate men do desperate things, and stupid men do stupid things. We are in for a desperately stupid summer."

"LET'S GO GET THOSE BUSH BASTARDS!"

[RobinA]

27. This Summer

<<<We are in for a desperately stupid summer.>>>

OMG, tell me about it. I was just thinking that if things are this stupid this early, it's going to be a grueling summer. I thought it was bad last time, but I think we ain't seen nuthin' yet. We can only pray that, unlike in 2000, the stupidity is over in November.

[Capn Sunshine]

18. There's that "close election " meme again

It's cropping up all over the place.

[The Magistrate]

30. Most Students Of The Matter Think It Will Be Close, Captain

A spread as wide as five points would be a pleasant surprise.

"Desperate men do desperate things, and stupid men do stupid things. We are in for a desperately stupid summer."

"LET'S GO GET THOS BUSH BASTARDS!"

[CoupdEtat2000]

33. Most likely it will be, and that's the good news.

[Robb]

19. I couldn't read the entire piece

...I was laughing so hard after "this president is not going to wait for his advisors to lay out an attack strategy", I couldn't see through the tears. :D

[Leilani]

29. But this President does not have a clue

about being a President! His entire term has been 1 political move after another. Cheney & the PNAC crowd are running foreign policy, & there is no domestic policy except reward your donors.

But don't underestimate the Chimp. He is an effective retail politician, & for some very bizarre reason, there are still people out there who like him.

He's a competitive snake, & when down, is dangerous. McCain trounced him in New Hampshire; he then destroyed mcCain in South Carolina.

Finally, we are political junkies, paying attention to all events, knowing the facts, but the majority of Americans are too busy doing important things , like watching reality shows.

No matter what the polls say, I will not relax until Kerry is declared the winner.

[Dr Fate]

20. Agreed-Bush's hard base WANTS to see him fight Democrats...

...its the "soft base" and centirsts that this could backfire against.

Any caution taken against Bush is a GOOD thing...

I think we should all read & consider this article.

[mikehiggins]

22. When opposing an incumbent President, the initiative always lays

with the White House. There is no way to avoid that. The election is about what the current officeholder has done wrong and what the prospective challenger will do differently.

The temptation is to try and slug it out with the White House and predict what they are going to do next. The reality is that there is no way to totally offset the ability of the President to hop into Air Force One and make some sort of newsbreaking visit or appearance at a moment's notice.

Getting involved so early with fighting Kerry may worry some Dems but I think it is just another example of Bush's cowboy style. He wants to get on with the showdown right away, where a more politically astute President would work at appearing Presidential.

Bill Clinton would never have given a speech on jobs in front of an audience of low paid workers who mostly couldn't speak English. Or if he did, he'd do it in Spanish. Give Bush his head and he'll run right into the quicksand.

[mikehiggins]

23. "Philip James is a former senior Democratic party strategist"

Reading this article it occurred to me we should be happiest about the "former" part of that label.

While Haiti might not be everybody's cup of tea, the fact that Bush is allowing, if not encouraging, the overthrow of regimes he does not like is sobering, to say the least.

Faced with continuing (and less and less reported) Amerian fatalities in Iraq and Afghanistan, a reasonable man would refrain from involving this nation in other adventures in imperialism. Apparently not. One can only wonder when troops will be landing in Cuba.

Is Bush's secret goal the destruction of the US military forces? It certainly seems so, considering how thinly stretched they are for the forseeable future. The lunatics have taken over the asylum.

[DemPoliticalJunkie]

28. But - Bush has gone negative early on and that is not so much a

good sign. People get tired of that real fast.

[katieforeman]

32. It also makes Bush look more desperate and political and undermines

his credibility.

[T_i_B]

36. Bush Losing Some Mystique of Presidency

I think this article has some sort of place on here.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uslatest/story/0,1282,-3862919,00.html

Springtime is creeping up on Washington and flowers are starting to bloom, but there will be no luxury of a Rose Garden strategy for President Bush this season.

With the election still nearly eight months away, Bush has surrendered some of the mystique of the presidency to take on a very public role as candidate for re-election. After spending months steadily building up campaign cash, he now is taking on Democrat John Kerry directly by name both in speeches and in a huge first burst of campaign ads.

Many think the president had no choice but to shift into an overtly political role early, given his deteriorating poll numbers, the speedy selection of a Democratic presidential candidate and continuing public concern about the state of the economy. Plus, he's got all that money burning a hole in his pocket.

``And so, off you go,'' said presidential scholar Calvin Mackenzie of Colby College in Maine. ``It's a trade-off. You're not going to look as presidential. You're going to be down in the gutter slinging mud. And I assume somebody smart in the Republican strategy sessions has said, 'We've got to do this.'''

[katieforeman]

37. I love your name.

Geat article. I thnik Bush really is in trouble in Rove knows it.

[radfringe]

34. been waiting for this since Reagan

one of the "high" ground issues of repubs is "family values"

I've been waiting since 1980 for someone to actually ask a repub to define "family values"

- what are they specifically? Define them.
- are repub family values the same as someone elses?
- are repub family values superior to someone elses?
- What are repubs doing to help families build better values?
- How does cutting or eliminating family targeted programs help a family build/maintain these values?

[randr]

35. So far * has spent his time, money, and political capitol

on bringing the radical right back in the fold. It may appear he is attacking Kerry, but the rhetoric only falls on the most conservative ears. His decision to mess with the constitution, the continued use of fear as motivation, and threats of more taxes are designed to shore up his support on the far right, a group he should already have in his pocket.
My suspicion is that he is seeing the same thing the rest of America is seeing, an erosion of trust across the board. He desperately needs to get his "foot soldiers" back on the team and he will alienate any others to do so. He has abandoned the conservative republicans who are concerned about international intervention, the conservatives who strongly favor states rights, the conservatives who really care about the environment, the conservatives who are fiscally responsible, and conservatives who are distrustful of government prying into our personal lives.
His actions, so far, are of a man desperate to reclaim the favor of the people he should not had to convince of anything. His actions may reinforce the support from his radical fundamentalists but it will turn many, many, more concerned citizens away.

[cclark401]

39. I agree with your assessment

It's just like the shrub to constantly have to reign in his own base. I believe that he's finished. His house of cards will fall soon.

[JPJones]

38. Yes, B* is gaining momentum

That is the default state - the President gets free media coverage being 'presidential'. Kerry only gets on the news when he makes news.

Since the primaries ended, Kerry has pretty much only been on the air for his 'crooks and liars' comment.

Democrats need to control the news cycle. But it is so damn early, maybe it is smart to slink off into the background for a while.

The key to winning this election IMO is: surrogates, surrogates, surrogates (and Ohio, Ohio, Ohio). Dean, Clark, Edwards, Krugman, Sheen, Franken, Moore (Michael, not Mandy or Roger) etc. can say the things that Kerry shouldn't, and this could be quite effective (assuming it is all well-coordianted and actually gets on the news). Soundbites that are humorous (a la Sharpton) are an important part of this.