John Edwards' Dilemma

[David Zephyr]

Well, the buzz is that that Former Senator John Edwards is about to make a formal endorsement of either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. I was sort of hoping that John would not endorse anyone and keep his powder dry, even up to the Convention in Denver. But apparently, that is not to be. And that brings up the true dilemma he faces:

If John Edwards endorses Senator Obama, then he risks bucking the Clinton establishment within the Democratic Party. Since his endorsement is coming so late in the process, I don't know that it would really translate into changing many minds as it would have had he endorsed several weeks ago. Most Democrats (outside of the DU and other liberal blogs) have moved on. Still, as an Obama supporter, I would be thrilled should he throw his stake in with our great challenge of the status quo. Certainly, he and Obama both shunned the typical fund raising methods that favor inside politicians and corruption that the Clintons have favored. I can't help but see that Edwards endorsing Obama would be the more natural and seamless one.

On the other hand,

If John Edwards was to endorse the Clinton team, he would face the certitude of looking like a suck-up to the very establishment that he's claimed to finally have now renounced. And more importantly, Edwards must surely know that he would look impotent when the North Carolina Primary arrives in early May which Senator Obama will clearly win that state -- with or without John Edwards' endorsement. Since John could not deliver his home state of North Carolina in the 2004 election even though he was the Vice Presidential candidate of the Democratic Party, I find it hard to imagine Edwards entertaining another embarrassment there in his home state.

I guess that we are soon to learn who he will endorse.

[Tom Rinaldo]

1. Maybe he'll do what he believes is best for the Democratic Party...

...and the nation, and not worry so much about how it looks. I would like to think that will be his priority no matter what he does or does not do.

[David Zephyr]

8. The best thing he could do for the party is stay out of it. We may need an impartial broker soon.

If anyone could be that "impartial" broker to assist Howard Dean in what we may all need soon, it would be John Edwards.

I just don't get "it" why he would endorse either Barack or Hillary now.

If this thing goes to the convention...and it looks like it might, John would have a far more important role there then pissing it all away to be a cheer leader for either of our two candidates.

I really think he makes a mistake by endorsing your candidate or mine because I think we might really need him down the road.

If he endorses, he loses that in a nano-second.

[Tom Rinaldo]

11. I'm sure it issn't an easy call for him

All three options (endorsing one or the other or none) must have points in their favor. The Democratic Party still has Al Gore and Jimmy Carter to help Howard Dean pull it together if Edwards ends up endorsing one or the other candidate.

[David Zephyr]

12. Well, I think that Al Gore and Jimmy Carter are going to be the angels now.

Thank goodness they have stayed out of this.

[Yael]

13. This is an extremely important point

I am looking for upsides to an Edwards endorsement and am really coming up short on all fronts.

This is the best case for a non-endorsement I have seen.

[David Zephyr]

14. I just don't see how it helps Obama, Clinton or Edwards.

But what do I know? Thanks, Yael.

Tomorrow will be a big day.

[jsamuel]

2. John Edwards will do what he thinks is best for the country and not care how it looks.

[SammyWinstonJack]

3. .

:thumbsup:

[TexasObserver]

4. John has nothing but upside and no promised plums with Obama. The opposite with Clinton.

If he chooses wrong, his legacy is finished.

[splat]

5. I expect he'll endorse the person who he thinks will best fight for the working people

That would be his "deal." That's his life work.

[2rth2pwr]

9. because it's personal to him.

bwahhahahahahaaa!



You forgot the sarcasm thingie. His life work!!?? lol!

[Yael]

6. I agree and it is no easy wager

If he endorses Obama, Clinton can play underdog reminiscent of post-debate in Philly back in October. I think this plays to her advantage over his. Like it or not, we DO tend to favor underdogs.

On the other hand, if he endorses Clinton, it sends the message that his entire campaign of it "being personal, not political" goes right into the dumpster. He painted her as the status quo and what is wrong with Washington today in order to distinguish himself (and to an extent, Obama).

If he has any thoughts about staying in politics, the Clinton endorsement will be the kiss of death for him no matter how it is spun to mean "he thinks she can win this". The biggest complaint people had about the Senator (most who never heard him speak) was that he was a hypocrite (The 3 H's -- house, hair and hedge fund) and his reversals on his voting record. This would sink him permanently.

I hope he and Elizabeth choose well. They are both VERY smart and capable people. I would like to see them continue in this scene (or another of their choosing), not fodder for the next 6 months on the late night talk show circuit.

[NCarolinawoman]

7. Last poll in NC showed a virtual tie. I think Obama was

one or two points ahead of Hillary. The Demographics in NC are not the same as in SC. Is that why you think Obama "will clearly win" here?

John should not endorse anybody, IMHO. When you endorse, you end up making people mad at you. Too many fine people have made endorsements only to end up being unfairly and hysterically vilified.

[David Zephyr]

10. That's what I'm saying. He really shouldn't endorse. We agree.

See my motivation for my OP in my response to Tom Rinaldo's good comments above. The Party and Howard Dean may need John to help broker and keep the Party from splitting into chaos.