Florida and Michigan - the real impact/breakdown

[dbackjon]

58 delegates is what the fight is over. 58.

Michigan:
Clinton: 74
Uncommited: 54

Clinton advantage: 20

You would have to assume that the 54 uncommitted will break for Obama. After all, if they had wanted Hillary, they would have voted for her.

Florida
Clinton: 105
Obama: 67
Edwards: 13
Clinton has an advantage over Obama of 38, with 13 that could swing either way.


A lot of fighting/harsh words for 58 (or 45) delegates. My prediction: The delegate margin will be greater than 58 (either way), delegates get seated, nominee kisses some MI and FL butt for a few minutes, all is forgotten, until next contested election.

[4themind]

1. I admit I don't fully understand the rules, so I apologize if I'm wrong but..

wouldn't those 54 uncommited, not be "pledged" to anyone, since they're well uncommitted heh. I'm guessing, if they're seated, that they could choose to vote for whoever they like, which could either increase or reduce the delegate gap

[dbackjon]

2. Very true, but again, if they were Clinton supporters in the first place

They would have declared that then.

[Perky]

3. Good perspective but I don't think they should be seated

and allowed to vote until all the other delegates have voted and only if they are all uncommitted.

Ultimately I do not want to deny them the right to vote....but they should be penalized for their stubbness.


If after everyone else has voted and they could still conceivablyhave an impact. Their vote should be counted. If it changes the majority however. I think you either have to go to a second ballot where everybody is a free agent.

[dbackjon]

4. Good points

I hadn't even thought of the second ballot issue - when all are uncommitted and free to change votes.