Why HRC won't win Ohio

[geiger]

I've placed some of this informaiton out there in response to other posts, but now I think it't time to put it all out there on its own.

At best, it's bad timing for HRC in Ohio. We've got the Governor and a black Congressmwoman endorsing her, opposite of the State black caucus. The Governor gave a feeble State of the State speech last week (almost undecipherable even to the Cleveland Plain Dealer), falling back on the lottery "to balance the budget," when the electorate just defeated a gambling initiative during the last statewide contest. There's a hotheaded (D) AG running around suing anyone he can come up with including Joe Camel for marketing to children while it's okay for the State Lottery to use puppets to market to the next generation of gamblers. And while it's now okay to play touchscreen keno in bars and other places (because it will be a "state-run" gambling thing), an incompetent SOS (D) has ordered local boards of elections to revert from touch screen to antiquated OCR voting technology, another disaster in the making.

The dynamics are all wrong. Plus, don't tell Ohioans how to vote; they don't like it. The "powers that be" would just be better off to keep their mouths shut.

Oh, and anti-NAFTA sentiment: still way strong.

She might be better off skipping it, to save huge embarassment, to her and the political establishment "insiders."

First, too, she wanted an Ohio debate, only threatening to "boycott" it, after a petty disagreement with a reporter who said a stupid thing.

[bigtree]

1. those 'dynamics' haven't registered in the polls

even though all of those things you listed have been evident for some time now

[geiger]

2. except people here are already voting with their pocketbooks by giving to Obama over HRC

[bigtree]

8. people here?

:eyes: what do the polls there say, poli speak?

[geiger]

11. Ohio contributions to Obama are outpacing those to HRc's last time I checked,

that's what I meant, here, in Ohio.

[bigtree]

38. polls polls

I can't find any current. The university polls are old.

[OPERATIONMINDCRIME]

3. So Let Me Guess: When She DOES Win, It'll Be Because She Cheated Or Somethin

:rofl:

[geiger]

9. Can you spell MESS? It's not going to be pretty, however it turns out

And if California was a long night, just wait till March 3.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

54. Two Points

1) Please vote and tell all your friends to vote on March 3rd...

2) She won Cali by ten points...In a presidential election that would be a lanslide...

[Yossariant]

56. The night before the election is going to be a long night?

:shrug:

[geiger]

58. If we are truly forced by our SOS to go back to OCR and paper ballots,

things are truly going to be a mess. It's being taken up in court now, as we write.

[Yossariant]

59. I should have been more direct, I see. Your primary is on March 4, not March 3.

[rodeodance]

16. yes,--that is the tpical MO of so many Obamababies

[geiger]

22. and you are referring to what? doesn't make sense.

[EmperorHasNoClothes]

57. Do you ever post anything other than drive-by name calling?

[marlakay]

4. In WA until the day before when the govenor

was for Obama for months leading up to it both of our senators were for Clinton and used their email lists to help her but we the people wanted Obama and that is what we got. And I wonder how many people sent emails to the governor (who is up for re-election in the fall) telling her to go with Obama.

I am not sure about Ohio, I know a few people who live there and they are both opinionated and stubborn...is that common there??

[geiger]

5. Ohioans have a rich history of being opinionated and stubborn....yes.

[susankh4]

33. Oh yes we are!

and not easily swayed by rhetoric.

Show us the track record, I say!

NAFTA aside... the 90s were a prosperous time in the Ohio River Valley.

[mtnester]

42. And people are talking about that...a lot..how they were much better off during those years

Voter registration is closed...February 4 was the last day to get on on that here in Ohio, so there was no post-Super Tuesday uptick in that regard

The last polling I saw was February 4 and had HRC well ahead. The qualifier is this was before Edward's dropped out.

I have no idea what that dynamic did.

Specific area like Franklin and Cuyahoga counties will probably go one direction, and the rest of the state another....that is the best guess I have now.

[Riley133]

48. Bingo! That is a prevailing sentiment that I hear n/t

[OzarkDem]

29. They know their politics and politicians and take them seriously

they're less inclined to be like the "impulse buyers" like so many new Obama supporters are.

[Thrill]

6. Edwards Endorsement will lift Obama to victory in Ohio

[flyarm]

10. and if he endorses Hillary???????? eom

[Thrill]

13. Won't happen

He would rather endorse no one than Hillary.

[flyarm]

20. do not count on that or underestimate how Obama jerked John EOM

[geiger]

35. did not hear the "story"

of how Obama "jerked" Edwards around.

It's not part of his character to do that, in my estimation, anyway. Can you tell me what you are talking about? I have been trying to pay attention....

[susankh4]

50. Any truth to the rumor that

Edwards has cancelled his meeting with Obama for this week?

[geiger]

51. rescheduled....

[susankh4]

60. For when?

[rodeodance]

14. MSNBC: Obama's Meeting with Edwards is Off---did you get this MEMO?

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject MSNBC: Obama's Meeting with Edwards is Off
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4536307#4536307
4536307, MSNBC: Obama's Meeting with Edwards is Off
Posted by hnmnf on Mon Feb-11-08 11:41 AM

No reason why, its just not happening anymore

[Tarc]

7. Yep, because implicating that a young woman is a whore

simply because she is out campaigning for her mother was just a "petty" insult. :eyes:

"better off skipping it" pretty much sums up one of the most naive, rambling commentaries the DU has seen yet.

[geiger]

15. Chelsea should be running the campaign as far as I'm concerned; that's why the comment

was so stupid and should have been handled not with anger but disdain. It was plain stupid, by someone wanting to make themselves important when they had nothing else to say.

I am half serious about her skipping it; it's a no-win either way.

[SteppingRazor]

17. Granted, but what does that insult have to do with Obama or his campaign? n/t

[geiger]

21. Becoz HRC made a big deal when Obama said he'd rather inter-face

with voters one-on-one than have another repetitive debate. Like he was "afraid" to debate her, and other weird insinuations like that.

[SteppingRazor]

23. I saw a lot more of that criticism coming from HRC supporters than Clinton herself...

and, really, can you blame Clinton or her supporters? If you challenge your opponent to a bunch of debates and he rebukes you, what are you going to say?

[geiger]

25. Characterizing a no thank you as a rebuke is rather harsh wouldn't you say

and if this stuff isn't coming from the top, which I think it is, she has also run the danger of losing total control of her campaign as people rush in to fill perceived vacuums by Bill, first, and the campaign manager, second, being pushed aside. Now we've got an executive secretary supposedly running the campaign? Doesn't bode well any way you look at. The campaign needs to be more careful about what it wants to put into play here....

[SteppingRazor]

27. I just think it's a little naive or disingenuous to think that Clinton wouldn't have played it...

this way. If the situation was reversed, I'd expect Obama to play it the exact same way. That's all.

[geiger]

31. Well, then, I think it's a matter of who I think knows how to make a better use of time

Chalk it up to management styles. I think he's right and she's wrong.

[TexasObserver]

12. I think Obama could run the table on the states Hillary thinks will save her

She's hanging on by a thread now, and will take more losses the next ten days.

I think it's 50-50 she could lose Ohio and Texas, which would likely end her candidacy, and we could start focusing on beating Grumpy McCain.

[Vinca]

18. I agree. Obama hasn't campaigned in Ohio or Texas yet and

you can see the difference in the polls almost immediately after he breezes into a state.

[geiger]

19. all my cousins and my uncle in TX are going Obama

[TexasObserver]

24. it's nuts for Obama down here

I have people who have never voted Democratic telling me they really like Obama and may vote for him. And the weird thing is, some of them are business types who really liked Romney, but think McCain is clueless. Hillary has lost her grip on older Democrats, too, many of whom were name ID voters.

I am feeling better and better about my firm prediction that Obama will win Texas.

[geiger]

28. With Obama's 100 percent recognition, all bets are off....

[TexasObserver]

32. Here's the reality Team Hillary cannot fathom: He wins anywhere he's known well.

Once he gets in the state and reaches the public widely, it's over for her.

And McCain, too, in November.

[OzarkDem]

26. Bashing Gov Strickland AND our new Dem AG & SOS and Stephanie too?

Krugman is right, the Obama campaign is Nixonian, nasty, lying.

Ohio Dems worked their asses off to elect a new governor, AG, SOS, etc. We happen to be very proud of our slate.

AG Marc Dann is the one who blew the lid off Coingate.

SoS Jennifer Brunner is the one who stood up to the GOP and Diebold without blinking and said get rid of the touch screen machines.

The only people in Ohio who bash these folks are Republicans. Surely Obama supporters don't want to be mistaken for Republicans....

[geiger]

30. He's a good man; it's just not good times for Ohio, and he's struggling

to keep a handle on all of it. He doesn't have the Chief Executive experience, I fear, that is needed to whip things and opponents into shape. His latest proposal for the Governor's Office to take over the State Board of Education is going over like a lead balloon, too. Didn't work in Cleveland, and he's certainly has enough other things on his plate right now, too many. It doesn't make any sense to take on one more thing, plus he's got Fingerhut, the policy wonk to give him all the advice he needs.

[geiger]

40. As for the AG and SOS,

they are presently screwing up; they need to cut it out.

I am one of the asses who worked to get Democrats elected here in Ohio, and witnessed you getting kicked off the DU Ohio forum during all of that, so don't give me a lecture.

And guess what, I KNOW more than a few Republicans, and they are voting for Obama.

[OzarkDem]

49. True that

Kicked out of the Ohio forum on DU for supporting Sherrod Brown instead of Paul Hackett, I'm extremely proud to say. I wear it as a badge of honor.

I fear the Obama phenomenon is much the same as the Hackett phenomenon.

As for SoS Brunner, living here in Cuyahoga Co, and knowing some of the people (attorneys) who now serve on the BOE, she is taking extraordinary measures to protect the vote here. Its been a difficult battle removing GOP control of elections in Cuy Co. They are wily and tenacious.

[theHandpuppet]

Haven't you heard?

Any Democrats who don't support Obama are the devil's minions! Off with their heads! :sarcasm:

[AnOhioan]

34. If you are trying to sway votes one way or the other....

It might help to not knock the Democratic officeholders (Gov, AG and SoS) that Ohio voters elected.

And on the issue of the SoS ordering the counties to dump touchscreens...in my opinion, it was a one hell of an idea. Our voting systems were not secure. What you call "antiquated" is actually more reliable than a closed-source code determining my vote.

[geiger]

41. Wouldn't venture to think I could sway votes; just time for a wake-up call, that's all.

[Blue_State_Elitist]

36. What state does like to be told how to vote?

I hear that phrase every week about a different state.

[geiger]

43. true, so goes Ohio, so goes the nation.

you make my point better than me. The more people are paying attention and think they are being told how to vote, the more likely a negative reaction.

[OHdem10]

37. I am from Ohio----do not agree.

Hilary has a good chance to win Ohio.

[geiger]

44. the dynamics change hourly.....

[stahbrett]

39. Isn't Ohio an open primary state? Doesn't that favor Obama?

Especially since the Republicans seemingly have their nominee picked out - would independents and some disenchanted Republicans feel like they'd rather go vote for Obama (or against Clinton), instead of rubber-stamping McCain's nomination?

[geiger]

45. Yep, coz a lot of R's are going to go for Obama; seen too many of our young people

shipped off to a war that HRC helped authorize and McCain sees going on for a hundred years.

[mtnester]

46. Sorta...you can vote in the Dem primary

if you switch your party politics to Dem.

Many Indies and Repubs won't do that becuase they have to stay that way until primary in the next senate year (2010).

[Riley133]

47. That's right, and people don't realize it

Will the pollworkers tell them when they ask for the other side's ballot? If not, I'll bet there will be a big stink about that (even though it's all spelled out on the Ohio Board of Elections website).

[stahbrett]

61. Can you elaborate?

What do you think the poll workers should tell voters who ask for the other side's ballot? If a Republican asks to vote in the Democratic primary, he/she needs to sign something (I'm assuming) saying that they want to be a Democrat, but at the next election the voter can switch back, correct? What's the big deal then?

[mod mom]

52. Yep. East Liverpool Toxic Waste Incinerator + New Modifications (inc Anthrax):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x4537770

[geiger]

53. uh oh.

[Tatiana]

55. Ohio will be competitive, but this is the one state other than California

where Hillary has run an effective campaign on the ground. She's set up her offices, has people on the ground and is very visible. Obama always seems to make a last minute push, which I don't really like. Hillary has been in Ohio for some time now and I think that gives her the edge.

[geiger]

62. another reason HRC wont win Ohio

http://blog.cleveland.com/openers/2008/02/mark_naymik_clinton_shows_off.html#comments

"Hillary Clinton is running for president as if she were cramming for an exam.

In an endorsement interview via speakerphone with Plain Dealer editors and reporters last week, she emptied her brain, spewing information about her urban agenda as if she were reading a teleprompter on high speed.

She talked for nearly eight minutes before allowing a second question. Then she filled the air for another six.

She knew Northeast Ohio better than Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain, who made separate calls to the paper.

But such interviews are not oral exams. And there are no bonus points. She treated it like a test, which is emblematic of her problem in the presidential race: She's more comfortable with policy than people."

And the Plain Dealer "Openers" blog posting goes on....

[TexasObserver]

63. She is in love with the sound of her own voice.

She talks at people, as if selling a used car.

[geiger]

64. I have a more cynical take;

I don't even think she listens to herself.

She made that ridiculous remark recently about having found her "voice." She's been an advocate and great rabble-rouser her entire adult life (at least) and now she wants us to think she's only now coming into her own?

It's ludicrous.

[TexasObserver]

65. When she said she found her voice, it means she found her crying towel

[geiger]

66. she has a lot to cry about these days.....

[TexasObserver]

67. It's Hilly's turn to cry, Hilly's turn to cry, Hilly's turn to cry-y-y-y!

[Thepricebreaker]

68. Polling...

Are there any polls coming out of Ohio, Texas or PA yet? I have looked, they are all very very old.. like 3-4 months..