Hillary has the machine behind her in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania - she will win all 3

[Herman Munster]

The machine got her to win Massachusetts by 15% even with Kennedy and Kerry and Patrick against her. She had the support of the Mass state reps and senators. The local people fought for her and she won.

The same thing happened in California where she won by 10 points even after Obama was tied or leading in all the polls before the contest.

They will pull out all the stops in Texas. There will be latino turnout like you've never seen before and she will win.

In Ohio, she has the support of Governor Strictland and his machine and all the unions will pour all their resources into that state and go all out for her. The demographics are right. Lots of working class white downscale voters.

The same thing in Pennsylvania. She has Rendell and the Philly mayor. Closed primary. Lots of older people and working class whites.

After Hillary wins all 3 of these huge primaries, I expect a come to Jesus meeting with Dean and the party elders to prevent a 4 month dogfight to the convention that will make the nomination not worth it to either of them.

The deal will be a Hillary-Obama ticket. I'm becoming ever moreso convinced that is the only ticket that will win. If it goes to the convention, both candidates will lose to McCain. It'll be 1968 redux.

[joshcryer]

1. She won't win with enough margins to give her the pledged delegate majority.

She might have the popular vote but that'd be it.

[sloppyjoe25s]

42. Obama camp getting cocky

get to work Obama people! SHe is still HUGELY the front runner in Texas and Ohio. Donate and make calls to Texas. If you care - trade 50% of your time on DU - and give it to the Obama campaign.

[joshcryer]

45. I'm not an Obama supporter, just fyi.

I have got in some serious clashes here with Obama supporters.

[tekisui]

71. Obama is well winthin strinking distance in TX, less than 10% behind.

Clinton does have a handy lead in Ohio.

[ruggerson]

58. I haven't done the math

but, if at the end of the day, she has more actual voters supporting her than Obama, that is also a message to the superdelegates.

And remember, they are bound by nothing. There is no rule on the books that they are bound to support the candidate with more pledged delegates - whether that be Clinton or Obama. They can vote their conscience.

[BeyondGeography]

2. No worries, then

:boring:

[grantcart]

28. Right she is way way way ahead, it won't even be close. Obama has no hope

Why do the campaigns make such great efforts to drive down expectations and the supporters try so hard and raise expectations to an impossible level.


Obama has won his last primary. Should he get within 20 points of Hillary in any primary it will be an upset.

[BeyondGeography]

38. How many days until spring training?

[grantcart]

75. watch these guys have a melt downs when Obama runs the table

[moc]

3. There is no "dem machine" in Texas.

But continue with your fantasy unabated. Shows how little you understand of this state.

[derby378]

21. Here's the "Democratic machine" in Texas...

TDP HQ in Austin, the Dallas County Democratic Party, the Hays County Democratic Party, Stonewall Democrats of Texas, and a bunch of unaffiliated grassroots activists across the state. That's about it.

[moc]

31. There's a Collin County Democratic Party too, but we know how powerful they are.

Can't even unseat the insane Sam Johnson.

I think a lot more people are getting involved, though. I've never been involved in a primary, and I went to an Obama organizing event on Friday in Plano. :bounce: It was great to see all the energy coming out to organize in good old red Collin County. I wish I could have stayed longer, but I had a sick child at home. I'm looking forward to seeing what we can do to win Collin County and the whole metroplex for Obama!

[derby378]

56. I'm rooting for the Collin County Dems

I even dropped by their HQ in Plano yesterday and bought some of their stuff. Give 'em Hell.

[Name removed]

4. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[skooooo]

5. the Diebold machines??

:shrug:

[The Velveteen Ocelot]

6. Since when is the support of a party "machine" a *good* thing?

Haven't we all been trying like hell to overcome party machine politics? And doesn't this prove she really is the "establishment" candidate of the past?

[sloppyjoe25s]

44. Whatever it proves or not - it is still TRUE

honestly people - she is still at a Huge advantage in Texas and Ohio.

don't worry about what it proves about her - DO SOMETHING - volunteer on the phone banks to call Texas TONIGHT.

Viva Obama - but please WORK - change ain't free!

no se lograra el cambio gratis!

[bicentennial_baby]

7. His name is Deval, Deval Patrick

Thank you.

[MadBadger]

8. Still at least 3 weeks away Herman.

[Hutzpa]

9. Shit! here comes the machine

:hide:

[derby378]

10. I live in Texas - and I wouldn't be so sure

Houston is strongly pro-Clinton, but Austin is pro-Obama, and Dallas/Fort Worth could go either way.

Also, Hispanics in Texas are a little more conservative, so some of them may be voting for McCain as well. I don't see many Hispanic votes for Huckabee down here.

[judaspriestess]

29. Don't count San Antonio out

in your calculations. 60% Hispanic and Bill Clinton appointed Henry Cisneros HUD secretary, former mayor of San Antonio. I imagine (as I don't live in my hometown anymore)will go Clinton as South Texas will.

[thevoiceofreason]

41. Houston is turning fast

I wouldn't be surprised to have Houston called even right now. Great Obama organization.

[Tatiana]

70. DFW will go for Obama.

Though I'm not sure which way San Antonio will go :shrug:

[scheming daemons]

11. Your PROUDLY announcing that you candidate's only chance is via her "machine"????? Wow....

Herman openly admitting that Hillary can only win with the use of political strong-arming.

As to your other bullshit:

....only one of the 7 largest polls taken right before California had Obama winning. 6 had Hillary winning. Nice lie, Herman.



Finally... Obama won't join a Hillary ticket. It does absolutely NOTHING for him.

[WillyT]

12. Did Her Machine Get Impounded For The Last Week Or So ???

Maybe it's in for a tune-up and an oil change?

:shrug:

[Quixote1818]

13. That machine didn't come to my house or my Dad's in New Mexico

but Obama's machine did.

[NJSecularist]

14. What Democratic machine in Texas?

Are you joking?


Do you realize that the Democratic party is notoriously unorganized in Texas?

[Bread and Circus]

15. You might be right but calling anyone a "downscale" voter is insulting.

"Lots of working class white downscale voters."

Very insulting in my opinion.

[Bright Eyes]

16. "machine"

Thats comforting.

God Help America.

[cali]

17. Put down your cracked and dirty crystal ball.

There's no way of knowing what will happen. Trends do show though, that she rarely beats him by more than 10 points. And to stay ahead in pledged delegates that's all he needs to accomplish. But it's also possible that he'll win one of the three. We'll see.

[joshcryer]

32. Her best chances are in TX because of the latino vote.

Similarily as to how he does well in black states, Hillary does well in heavily latino states. It's just how things are.

But TX isn't enough to bring her over, she needs TX, OH and PA in significant leads to be able to squash him. And by significant I mean more than 30%.

It's mathematically impossible. Going to do the math soon and prove it.

[NJSecularist]

52. Will you post it in a thread?

I'd love to see it.

[Name removed]

18. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Penndems]

19. Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell has already endorsed Senator Clinton

He's know both her and former President Clinton personally for over fifteen years.

[CreekDog]

20. The Massachusettes machine doesn't include Kennedy or Kerry?

C'mon, what's going on here? :crazy:

[bowens43]

22. Don't bet on it.... nt

[smalll]

23. All three!

Well, maybe not, but 2 would be good too - Penn is a lock, feeling good about Ohio, Texas, not so sure.

But be not joyous, Obamatrons -- Don't Forget Puerto Rico!

63 Delegates!
Latino!
The NY Connection! (Families in NY, a lot of Boricuas who've spent years themselves in the Big Apple!)
Latte Liberals as rare as hen's teeth! (Yeah, I bet there's a few Starbucks in PR, mostly in the tourist encampments I'd guess though -- special concessions poolside at the resorts.)
And last, but NOT least --
WINNER TAKE ALL, baby!

Stick that in your iPods and smoke it, Obamatrons!

[Danger Mouse]

26. ugh.

[smalll]

50. Oh yeah, Our Girl's still got some aces up her sleeve, as long as she can hang on --

1) There's Puerto Rico.
2) There's Michigan.
3) Even more powerful than Michigan, there's Florida, where in fact all the candidates were on the ballot. And it's Florida. Do you really want to not seat the Florida delegation? Do you really want to disenfranchise the Democratic electorate of Florida, one more time?
4) There's time itself, and experience; experience with campaigns. Give it the several months that we face, it's much more likely that Obama will take a fatal misstep than Hillary will. Face a months-long high-profile intense round of campaigning and not make the "gaffe too far?" I'd bet on Hillary to walk that tightrope better than Obama.


You know, despite Puerto Rico and all else, chances are something WILL happen to change the campaign dynamics. Anything's possible. I've thought ever since the Iowa Obama victory speech, it probably won't be the O-man himself who Deanscreams himself out of existence; it will be some over-excited, over-Red-Bulled contingent of Obamaboppers who will do it for him...

We know BHO has allegedly agreed to 2 more debates. When is that last one supposed to occur? After that, Hillary should challenge him to more (which he will refuse.) THEN she should show up at an Obama Rally, in an attempt to press the issue face-to-face and in person: tell the secret service to hang back a few paces, make sure the cameras are on, and then endure a few precious seconds of spittle and manhandling from an enraged Obama Youth -- the ride to victory on the video feed!

It's not over by a long shot.

[Danger Mouse]

54. the 'ugh' was in reference to your arrogant and insulting posts.

[Thrill]

24. For your sake Herman. The Machine better come through

there are some big pockets of Texas that could go really heavy for Obama

[zabet]

25. I find this interesting...

"If it goes to the convention, both
candidates will lose to McCain. It'll
be 1968 redux."

I had a recent conversation with a life-
long repuke who said to me, "The liberals
have been trying to relive the 60s for years.
If this primary race goes to convention, the
liberals will get to relive the 60s, in a bad
way. It will be 1968 all over again."
So, you are not the only person who sees it
from this perspective.

[Botany]

27. Hillary is sinking fast

She just switched campaign managers, she is be beaten north,
south, east, and west, and Obama is on major roll.

BTW I live in Ohio Hillary will have a tough time here.

[LordJFT]

30. I think if MA proved anything it's that the machine isn't as influential as some people think

[Skwmom]

33. There will be no Clinton/Obama ticket.

[okasha]

37. I prefer Clinton/Richardson, in any case.

n/t

[tblue37]

34. I would love to see both of them on the ticket, and I honestly don't

care in what order, though I suspect an Obama/Clinton ticket would play better in the general election.

I just hope that both can put their egos on hold long enough to work this out.

Oh, and John Edwards for AG, to clean up the sewer that the DoJ has become.

[John Q. Citizen]

35. There will be no Hillary/Obama ticket. She has already attempted to portray

Obama as "inexperienced." So she can't run with him on the ticket no way no how. She needs someone who in her rather tunnel vision assessment is ready to step in and up should (heaven forbid) the need arise. She has already insured that Obama isn't going to be on any ticket with her.

[JimGinPA]

36. Time is not on her side...

Obama will be able to spend plenty time & money campaigning in these 3 states. That alone will probably keep her from gaining any delegate advantage.

And by the way, Obama doesn't need Hillary on the ticket to win the blue states she where came out ahead. And I don't see Obama running as VP in an election she'll lose.

[Thrill]

48. If Super Tuesday showed anything it was that

if Obama had more time he would of closed her leads in those big states even closer. He'll have 2 weeks to work TX and Ohio.

[Yurovsky]

60. 2 states rather than 20 to focus on ...

and whenever he's had a chance to get out and do the meet & greet and connect with voters, his numbers take off.

I put ZERO faith in any TX or OH polls right now. Obama has time ... Obama has money ... Obama has momentum ...

And the all important ... MOJO!

[DaDooRonRon]

39. Isn't it great to rely on the "machine" instead of people?

Quite the change agent, yes?

Uh, no.

And nothing to be proud of, either.

Just curious, did any of "the machine" die in the illegal war that Ms. Clinton continues to help fund?

[Dogmudgeon]

40. Where is the Daley Machine from?

I seem to have temporarily forgotten.

--p!

[ursi]

43. will illegals help her in Texas?

[joshcryer]

46. Maybe if the cacuses are as lax as some others.

:shrug:

[Occam Bandage]

47. Go go super machine!

[meow mix]

49. Savior Obama shall smite ye war-loving machine down.

once and for all.

[muntrv]

51. I'm assuming that "the machine" has been in the shop the last week.

[citizen snips]

53. are they all primaries?

if so the odds should be in Hillary's favor.

[BumRushDaShow]

55. PA is a purple state

that was once red with 2 repuke Senators until 2006. Rendell's "machine" was put in place thanks to the bluest of blue metro areas (where Philly is one of the biggest cities to have not elected a repuke mayor in recent times - i.e., over half a century). In many cases, the turnout in the cities can throw this state as has happened in previous presidential elections, and if Obama (who will probably win the cities) can capture the independents and dissatisfied repukes, then the state is not a lock for Hillary IMHO, "machine" or not.

[TheWraith]

57. Will she be able to pay for "the machine" after not winning anything for a month?

Careful. When you talk about "the machine," it makes some people think of Rove's "the math..." and other icons of hubris.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

64. you'd be amazed at what happens to "inspirational" campaigns in a month time

[Carrieyazel]

59. A Hillary/Obama ticket; something tells me that ticket is not going to get it done for us

Two senators from northern states with identical Senate records on domestic policy, and little chance to win outside the blue states. Independents will flock to McCain.

That ticket will lose to McCain, even with a Dean-brokered deal way before the convention.

[NJmaverick]

61. Hillary has the support fo the "machine" VS Obama having support of the PEOPLE

That's the big difference between the two.

[harun]

63. Unfortunately the rules are made by the machine, going to

take a lot from the people to beat it. However, I think we can.

The big O has the big MO right now.

[ebdarcy]

62. Ohio has a democratic machine? Who knew?

I know we have a democratic governor now, but that's probably because his republican opponent was bat shit insane and the previous governor was a crook. Before Strickland got into office, we had a republican governor for over 15 years. This is a state that Bush won twice (thanks to the afore mentioned bat shit insane Blackwell). This is a state that had Mike DeWine as one of its senators for over ten years. And Voinovich is currently our senior senator.

I mean, don't get me wrong, we got some good liberal politicians, and a few good democratic leaning cities, but I'm not sure that qualifies as a machine. I could be mistaken though.

That being said, Hillary is polling well here, and I do think she wins Ohio.

[JVS]

65. boss trafficant will get them

[ebdarcy]

68. Whoops, I can't believe I forgot about him.

Well, there went my whole argument.

[CreekDog]

66. If she wins those only, she needs to win with about 70% of the vote

How does she do that?

You are assuming she just needs to win in those states, but that's not enough now, she needs to make up a lot of lost ground and simply crush Obama in those states. How does she pull that off?

55% wins in these three states won't do it, though it may pull her close to, but not to a tie in pledged delegates.

[Drunken Irishman]

67. Well then, why hold primaries there at all?

[TankLV]

69. from your lips to gods ears...

I hope and pray that hillary does that good...

[CTLawGuy]

72. Welcome my son....

tooooooooooooooooooooooooooo the machiiiiiiiiiiiiine!

[jackson_dem]

73. You're understimating the $1 million raised a day $160 million Obama machine

And we have to see if Hillary even makes it to Pennsylvania. If she gets swept this month and loses Texas and Ohio it's over. She will probably need both if she gets swept in every post-ST state. Texas is a likely win for her because of Latinos but Ohio is a state where Obama has a regional advantage.

[spooky3]

76. I would not be surprised to see an Obama sweep of MD-DC-VA on 2/12.

If that happens, it will be interesting to see if that affects OH, PA, TX, etc.

[Colobo]

74. Keep dreaming, Herman. You know the momentum is on Obama's side now.

Your girl is about to get KOed.

[cloudythescribbler]

77. I'd bet Obama wins AT LEAST one of those three, and could even sweep .... nt