TPM: "Greater Than 50% Chance" He'll Endorse (Edwards)

[Yael]

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/02/edwards_aide_john_having_priva.php

An Edwards aide confirms to me that John Edwards met privately with Hillary on Thursday to discuss the possibility of making an endorsement, and will meet with Obama tomorrow, as first reported by Mark Halperin.

The Edwards aide gave me a bunch more detail, including this: "There's a greater than 50% chance he will endorse." He also said that he's been talking to both on and off for some time, including since he dropped out.

The Edwards aide, who played a key campaign role, confirms that in his private discussion with Hillary, the former North Carolina Senator talked to her about similar concerns he raised with both candidates just before leaving the race. The aide says he talked about "who's going to carry on the mantle of fighting for the voiceless," and is trying to gauge which of the two "will sign their name in blood in order to make that commitment." A second source familiar with the meeting confirmed that it took place.

The Edwards aide cautioned against reading too much into the meetings, saying that he'd been talking to both of them before. "He's torn," the aide said "He has reservations about Hillary, which are pretty apparent."

On Obama, the aide says, Edwards worries "whether he's tough enough to be President of the United States. If you look at what Edwards ran on, which is not negotiating with the special interests, taking away their power, that's pretty different than the Obama model."

The Edwards aide added that Obama's lack of a health care plan with a "mandate" is a "tough hurdle for him to get over." He added, however, that Edwards is much more in line with Obama on other issues.

[Drunken Irishman]

1. So it sounds like IF Edwards endorses, it'll probably be Obama.

[Lithos]

9. I think the comment was purposefully vague

So as to not tip things off, but provide some information about the decision making process. Edwards had his hot button issues and I think it will ultimately resort to whatever the best concession he obtains. I suspect it will involve a VERY public statement of one or two planks that are near/dear to Edwards. Don't think he has obtained that yet from the sounds of it.



L-

[Yael]

14. Thats how I am reading it

[hlthe2b]

2. God, Edwards still aligns with my thoughts & beliefs more than

either Barack or Hillary-- right down to his being torn between the two and worried whether Obama is tough enough not to bow to special interests....

I will be very interested to see what he does... What an incredible VP Edwards might have been had Gore run. The two of them seem very much insync....

[Elspeth]

5. kick

:kick:

[Skwmom]

13. Not tough enough. Sounds like the Clinton campaign spin.

[hlthe2b]

16. No... I supported Obama in the Colorado caucuses, BUT

I do worry that appeasement in the name of "unity" may be the result. Many of our Dems have learned (at OUR expense) the cost of trusting the Repugs in the name of unity.

[NightWatcher]

3. how long will the tease of the endorsement last?

[VolcanoJen]

10. I mean, really

I adore Edwards, and worked my ass off for him in 2004. He was not my choice this time around, but he was certainly #2.

But at this point, an Edwards endorsement grows in irrelevance by the minute. The time for him to endorse and have impact was the moment he announced he was suspending his campaign. That window is closing. Quickly.

[AtomicKitten]

4. It's hard to imagine he'd endorse Clinton, the #1 recipient of lobbyist money (both parties!)

[LakeSamish706]

6. I am an Obama supporter, but at this time not sure I would like to see...

Edwards endorse anyone.... He should have endorsed before Super Tuesday IMO if he was going to endorse at all.

[bigdarryl]

7. the best thing for him to do is stay the hell out of the endorsement business it doesn't

mean a heck of a lot these days. look at the endorsement of Senator Kennedy to Obama didn't mean jack shit people are not going to change who they like for President because of some former candidate is backing someone else.

[KittyWampus]

8. Poverty is Edwards' signature issue. Only Obama addresses it comprehensively.

[npincus]

11. My antennae tell me he'll pick Hillary

and I am an Obama supporter.

That said, he doesn't HAVE TO endorse anyone if he's ambivalent about both.

[Skwmom]

12. Oh please. Edwards is in it for Edwards. I've thought he's been

working with the Clintons from the beginning and I think I will be proven right. Of course, I wouldn't put it past Edwards to ditch the Clintons if he thinks that is to his advantage (and vice versa).

So follow this logic. Edwards is worried that Obama won't fight the special interests so he'll use this logic to team up with the biggest special interest candidate of all.

[LaStrega]

15. Hmmm ...

This brings to my mind a few questions that hadn't occurred to me previously:

1) I wonder how many people who supported Edwards decided to back Hillary after he dropped out.

2) I wonder how many people who supported Edwards decided to back Barack after he dropped out.

3) I wonder if an Edwards endorsement would sway anyone away from their above decision.

Regardless, I see an Edwards endorsement as a pretty damned big feather in the proverbial cap.