Skip the spin: Obama really is the front runner at this point...

[sfam]

I really think Hillary could have stemmed the tide and held off till March 4 had she won Maine, but this didn't happen.

Assuming Obama wins Tuesday in the Chesapeake primaries, he'll have all the states since Super Tuesday. This bodes well for him next week in Wisconsin. If Hillary doesn't win there, she'll be stuck waiting 3 weeks without a victory.

How'd that work out for Rudy??

Hillary has every right to call herself the underdog at this point - no spin necessary. Lets face it - she's fighting for her last fight at this point. If she doesn't win both Texas and Ohio, the race WILL be over. And spending 3 weeks without a win means less fund raising, less free time, less positive press than she's getting even now (which isn't much).

To me, tonight's contest was critical. My apologies to Hillary supporters, but for better or for worse, Obama is now clearly the front-runner. That said, I'm sure he'll try to spin it the opposite of this (as an Obama supporter, I think this is a good idea), but the truth is clearly different now.

Hillary can still win, but I really believe if she does, it'll be an impressive come from behind victory.

[bicentennial_baby]

1. I really thought she'd win today...

I'm very surprised. I thought he would do well, but not that well. :o

[sfam]

5. I think the weather probably affected things...

Considering Hillary has the over 65 vote, and they normally turn out, I would be very interested to see their percentages to see if there is a drop. If so, I think its safe to say that Mr. Snow gave Obama a real helping hand.

[bicentennial_baby]

8. That's possible, but Maine-ahs are generally pretty tough

He does have a fantastic ground game all over the country though. :)

[quinnox]

2. Don't ever count Hillary out

She is a masterful politician, the moment she is thought as lost is the moment she will capture victory. Call it fate or destiny, but I think she will be the next president of the united states.

[sfam]

3. I agree with this...nobody takes a punch like Hillary and bounces back...

She really is pretty masterful at that. If anyone can bounce back from a string of loses, she can. And I'm not counting her out tomorrow in VA either, but it will be tough.

[TheWraith]

9. What makes her a "masterful politician"?

No insult intended, but she's won two elections in her life: one against that obnoxious little bag of shit Rick Lazio, whose entire campaign platform was basically "Clinton fatigue," and the second against a sacrificial lamb in a year so bad for Republicans that even the moderates were getting kicked out of office.

[sniffa]

11. But look at the money she spent to beat that lamb

Sign of things to come in a poorly managed money campaign?

[sfam]

19. I made a thread on this earlier - you're not giving Obama enough credit..

Its not that Hillary sucks as a candidate, its that Obama has been out of this world good. Hillary "mismanaging" things assumes that had she managed it better it would have been an easy victory. I think the issue here is that Obama is just that good, not that she's that bad.

She's sent a string of problems his way - most all of which he's not only countered, but totally turned on her.

[sfam]

14. She has taken massive punches her whole political career...in office..

and prior to that. She has been sent to the ashes more than a few times as first lady, only to come back and survive. There's almost too many to mention here.

And need I remind you about New Hampshire? She was DEAD the day prior.

Super Tuesday, up until a significant number of undecided pulling for her the last day, Obama was really going to pull ahead.

[D23MIURG23]

69. The fact that she is viable after 16 years of Republican abuse. n/t

[Debi]

4. I don't think we can call him the front-runner unless he wins Ohio and Pennsylvania

Until he can prove that he can challenge her in a big state she is still the front-runner

[sfam]

6. If she loses everything after Feb 5, do you really think we can..

call her the front runner?

[Debi]

13. Small states don't count in this contest b/c the delegates from one large state

can wipe out all the delegates from all the smaller states combined. That's why Clinton is focusing on Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas. Obama can win em all until March 4th, if Clinton wins the big states on that date then she's the front runner.

[sfam]

16. I agree with her strategy, but do you really think her leads will hold...

that long? One word - Rudy. That's her problem - she is gonna be camping out in those states while the MSM continually hammers home the point that she's a loser.

I'm not saying she can't win, but in my mind, its up to Obama to fuck it up now. Previously it was up to Hillary to do that.

[Debi]

20. He may be performing better than her, but with her current fund raising

and her well-organized ground game in Ohio and Pennsylvania I don't know how she loses. That makes her the front-runner in those states.

[sfam]

31. Her good fund raising will be over after Tuesday...

If she loses, she won't be bringing in the bucks. I'm actually thinking it has slowed down dramatically since Saturday. Meanwhile, Obama is gonna be staying on overdrive. That means he can go full bore in all three big states (PA included).

[Debi]

35. Guess on whose spin you believe

:hi:

[sfam]

36. People that lose continually aren't getting funding from donors...

that's just sort of how it is. Is this what you meant by the believing the spin comment? I can't think of a race where someone continually got blown out, where it actually helped their fundraising. Can you?

[Debi]

39. As long as her supporters believe she can take those big states

and make it to the convention - she'll continue to raise money.

[sfam]

43. Again, I think you'll find her supporters are starting to get disheartened...

The Maine loss was HUGE I think...Coupled with this Tuesday, her supporters will not be smelling victory...

[Debi]

47. We are going to continue to disagree on this point until March 4th

If she wins the big states she is the frontrunner - if Obama wins them he is. Right now they are running neck and neck.

[localroger]

58. That would be true if winner-take-all, but it isn't.

Obama is steadily gaining delegates, 5 here and 10 there, and when she gets to that big state with 400 delegates if she only wins it 55% to 45% she'll only make up 50. If she keeps losing the small states in double digits, and she can't manage to blow out the big states, it won't be enough.

[NoBorders]

60. Exactly. It will depend on how big her wins

are in OH, TX, PA, assuming she wins them. If it's close-ish, she may not get enough delegates to knock him out. My guess, they're pretty close to even again after 3/4.

[tishaLA]

7. As I've posted elsewhere....

Sen Obama is still the underdog in this race. The powers that be of the Democratic Party still back her (witness superdelegates) and entrenched power always has an upper hand on upstarts. I hope he can keep his roll going, but let's not kid ourselves: she is still the frontrunner. In boxing terminology, you have to knock out the champion to take the title. Obama may have delivered some body blows, she is still on her feet and still holds the belt.

[sfam]

10. I'm an Obama supporter, but I don't buy that for a second...

If we see someone winning every contest on the calendar for a two week period, leading in fund raising and leading in polls against the opposite candidate, how can you really call him the underdog?

Again, if I'm spinning things, that's what I say too, but lets be real - if Hillary can pull this out now, it will be pretty astounding.

[gateley]

15. We've all been surprised so many times during this campaign, it's taken so

many twists and turns, I honestly don't think we'll know until/unless somebody gets the delegates needed to become the nom.

[Orangepeel]

12. She's still the frontrunner. She has more delegates, if the endorsements from supers are counted

She won't necessarily stay the frontrunner as he gains more pledged delegates on Tuesday and as more supers commit/switch. But for now, she's the frontrunner.

[pdxmom]

17. As long as the MSM keeps including the super delegates in her count,

she will still be viewed as the front runner. Look around here. We hear the argument daily about how Clinton carries all the big states, that Obama can't carry the primary states, etc. I'm hearing the same stuff on the media.

I'm not sure the media is going to let her claim underdog status very easily, especially after they claimed her basically unbeatable in the run-up to Iowa.

[sfam]

22. I'm not talking about the MSM spin...I'm talking about absent of spin...

Its clear to me that Obama has a much better chance of being the nominee at this point. Put simply, he has control of the primaries at this point.

He has a string of victories. He's going to have a string more before she gets a chance..

He has more money

He has better coverage

Hillary, meanwhile, has less money, no control over the MSM, and has to sit out in the big states while the nation watches her lose primary after primary.

[grantcart]

18. Oh no no no Hillary is the front runner she is way ahead

She will own them inn ME Virginia she lived in DC for 17 years.

[lurky]

21. Hillary will always be the frontrunner.

I say this as an Obama voter. She may be on the ropes right now, but she still has the network, the relationships, the party organization, the name-recognition, the power structure. And she is not known for rolling over. We underestimate her at our peril.

[sfam]

23. I ABSOLUTELY agree not to underestimate her...but

she no longer is in the driver's seat. She is not the front runner in most ways that matter.

[lurky]

26. I do feel like some kind of momentum shift has happened.

And she is getting diminishing returns on the various moves she has been throwing at Obama. Like I said, though, she will not give up so easily...

[A_Titanic_Mess]

24. re: Skip the spin: Obama really is the front runner at this point...

I am torn as I really like both Clinton and Obama. I can't remember a time in my life (I am 38) that we have had two such good candidates. Both have their pros and cons, but I feel both are worthy of our support. My biggest fear though is that if Obama is our candidate, the GOP will rip him to shreds, of course they would try the same with Hillary. I am afraid Obama's history with his church will really come back against him. Whether or not it is accurate, his church is viewed as a black-separatist church, and I think his connection with this church will be his downfall. You better believe the GOP will make this a major point in the months to come. I live in Ohio, and work for a very liberal company that has been honored over and over for being a diverse company that welcomes all. However in talking with co-workers about the elections, so many are saying they are not ready for a black candidate. It makes me wonder if this is what it will come down to, his race? It saddens me to think that, but my gut is telling me that is what will happen. I am just so torn as to what to do when March rolls around in Ohio.

[sfam]

28. If you think Hillary hasn't been attacking Obama, you haven't been..

watching. Obama seems to be able to turn attacks back on opponents like nobody else we've seen on the Democratic side.

Right now, we see Hillary and Bill as supposedly racists, fully involved in dirty tricks to the point they would do anything to win the election, and are now being charged with planning to "steal" the election through Super Delegates. Very little of this has any real basis, and worse - what they have done has completely blown up in their face. At this point Obama has flat out tarred and feathered them with this stuff, while still smelling like a rose.

Do you honestly think the republicans are going to do that much better?

[gravity]

49. That's why Obama will win

Obama would use the republican attacks against them, which I wanted a Dem to do for so long. Imagine if Kerry called out the swift boaters in 2004.

[VolcanoJen]

38. I can haz cheezburger?

;-)

[donheld]

66. Welcome to DU you Mess

:D :hi:

[Tatiana]

25. Shhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!

Well, I guess the cat is out of the bag, though ;)

It will not get better when she loses DC, Maryland, and Virginia. Personally, I think the whole midwest area (I'm gonna include Wisconsin and Ohio in that equation) are Obama's for the taking.

And Clinton is in for a big surprise with Texas and Ohio. Texas will be a big fight. If I were Obama, I would really sink some cash into Ohio, especially in the Cincinnati area. He's got the money to spend and he needs to put it on the ground there.

[tandem5]

33. self delete

posted in the wrong spot

[MadBadger]

27. I agree. Obama is the front runner, but Hillary could still win easily.

She still has the lead with superdelegates.

[sfam]

29. Hillary can still win...but it won't be easy.

If she wins at this point, she deserves it.

[Carrieyazel]

30. Hillary is STILL ahead in all committed delegates. Obama is not the frontrunner yet.

The total of delegs and superdels are what matters in this party. Like it or not.

He won't go ahead until Feb. 12, after Hillary has been leading the entire campaign.

And I'm not even a Hillary supporter.

[sfam]

32. Fair enough...but

in all other measures, Obama is flat out in the driver's seat. Its only a short matter of time before he takes that lead as well - no later than Wisconsin, assuming he wins in VA tomorrow.

[tandem5]

34. she's the underdog nt

[JVS]

37. Not until her delegate count is lower.

[sfam]

40. Be honest...who do you think will win at this point?

Do you really think Hillary has a better chance to win at this point? Like, really?

If not, if you really think Obama has a better chance, how is he not the frontrunner?

[JVS]

41. The one who ends up with a higher delegate count

Hillary's people say TX,OH, and PA are going to fuck Obama up. I'm holding them to that. Once that has been disproven, then he's the frontrunner.

[sfam]

42. Your spinning...I'm not...nt

[JVS]

44. Saying anything but that the person with more delegates is the front runner is spinning

Think of it as a race of automobiles. Victory is determined by location, not velocity, and not by acceleration. Hillary has the best location now, lately though her velocity has dropped tremendously. Obama still isn't ahead yet, he's just closing fast. Thus she is still the front runner.
Can she punch the gas or not?

[sfam]

46. By your own logic, your last post has been refuted...if Obama

wins Wisconsin and Hawaii, he WILL have more delegates...he WILL be ahead. So what is all that you were saying about March 4 again?

Even you admit he will be the frontrunner prior to then.

Again I say, if you skip the spin, the race is clearly in Obama's hands at this point. This to me makes it clear that he's the frontrunner. I think it will be fairly obvious to everyone else after Tuesday.

[JVS]

48. Oh, ok fine. Then he'll be the front runner, although IIRC Hillary is leading in WI polls.

Show me that he has more delegates and I'll admit he is the front-runner at that very point.

[JVS]

55. Good news. We can agree. CBS just announced his delegate count is higher. He is the front runner!

Aren't you happy this dispute is behind us?

[sfam]

57. I will be if its true. :)

Its weird how all the networks have their own totals on the delegates. You'd think they would be somewhat close, but they just don't seem to be. I've been going with MSNBC's figures...just because. :)

[Imagevision]

45. Obama would more easily defeat mcCain then Billary...

[Medusa]

50. And that's why Hillary is the GOP's Dem nominee of choice

which should tell some people around here a few things, but sadly, they hear what they want to hear and nothing else.

[jbm]

51. it's waaaay to early to make that call...

I live in Missouri. When the numbers were coming in on super Tuesday, I kept wondering why they didn't just call it for Hillary. County after county after county ..in fact EVERY county, was coming in for Hillary. But they hadn't counted St Louis, Kansas City, or Columbia yet, and whne they did, Obama pulled off a win.

That's exactly what's happening now. The states that favor Hillary are still out there. Obama needs a miracle to beat the lady.

[sfam]

53. Maine was Hillary's state too...as were many others...and...

March 4 is a Looooong way off. If Hillary loses out until then, she really is gonna be in some deep Kimchi.

Rudy was up in Florida at one point too, ya know...

[Zhuk]

52. its too early to say

But nonetheless Obama does have impressive momentum and support which is reflecting nationwide, its a close fight but Obama seems to have the support of the MSM and that will count for a lot in this race.

Looking at both campaigns I'd say he is the one that is ahead right now, and this is coming from a Clinton supporter

[sfam]

54. that's all I'm saying...not that Obama will win, but that he is...

the one ahead right now.

[sloppyjoe25s]

56. Don't get over-confident

She still has HUGE advantages.

I have seen the Clinton Machinery at the local level - and it is impressive. Here in NM - two ballot boxes were taken home by the Rio Arriba county chair - whos husband is a declared Clinton man. The boxes were missing for 24 hours.

He is still the underdog by far.

The fact that he has made it this far is stunning, and a testament to his organization - but she still has HUGE advantages in Texas, and Ohio where the dem Machinery was lined up with her long ago.

Obama people better donate ALOT - and NOT get cocky at ALL.

She is VERY strong, and could make a major comeback.

[D23MIURG23]

59. Obama did very well, but things are still very close.

I would say Obama has a slightly better chance of winning at this point, but I don't know if he could justifiably be called the front runner yet. I think the next few contests will give us a clear answer on that though.

[sfam]

61. If Obama wins all three states on Tuesday will he be?

If Hillary wins in VA, I agree that this post is well wrong. But if Obama cleans out all three, I think the MSM will rightly anoint him as the front runner.

[D23MIURG23]

68. Most likely.

But if Obama can't come up with strong showings in Ohio and Texas then his front runner status will be short lived. If his victories in the states on tuesday are as strong as those of this weekend than I will give you a solid yes.

I think the bottom line is that the Republicans already have their nom, and that simple fact is going to increase pressure on democrats - superdelegats included - to throw their weight behind whoever is looking stronger in the interest of having a unified front. I think a poor showing for Clinton in March could be her waterloo. I also think that a close race could default to Clinton since the insiders seem to be more comfortable with her. Obama will win if the momentum he has taken out of Super Tuesday and this weekend turn into an avalanche of support and publicity; Clinton will win if Obama underperforms next tuesday and she comes back in March.

[AX10]

62. She is the underdog.

[Colobo]

64. No, she's not. She's a Clinton. She's got the establishment behind her.

[AX10]

65. Your guy has the MSM behind him.

Not the same thing.

Obama = Front Runner!

[sfam]

67. Romney had the establishment behind him...was he the front runner?

There comes a time when the establishment does not equal front runner. That time will come on Tuesday, assuming Obama wins all three by even a small margin.

If Hillary doesn't stem the tide in VA, she really is gonna have issues going forward.

Bottom line, Obama is the front runner...

[Carrieyazel]

63. Maine was only 24 delegates. Obama gained only +6 from it.

She wasn't going to stem the tide, because she likely loses all three states DC, MD and VA on Tuesday.