Here's why Obama's independent supporters will vote McCain ...

[Alhena]

in large numbers (spare me the "I'm independent and will vote Hillary" replies- I'm speaking in general terms). It's not just because McCain is essentially an independent himself- it's also because Obama's independent supporters will realize that if McCain wins they get to vote for Obama against in 2012. If Hillary gets the nomination and loses Obama will basically have the nomination handed to him in 2012. If Hillary wins Obama goes into national political hibernation until 2016 at the earliest. This is simply a fact, and that's a long time for excited Obama suppoters to wait.

The anger of independent voters will be especially great this year since the primaries are dragging on so long, and so many Obama supporters are getting their hopes up. Hillary is likely going to have to play some serious hardball - either through superdelegate voter nullification or through a Michigan/Florida gambit - to win the nomination and that will make independent voters even more angry with her. It's even worse with the convention so late this year.

The bottom line is that this election is shaping up to be a perfect storm of independent anger against Democrats and support for the Republican candidate. If the Republicans had been stupid enough to nominate Mitt Romney the Democrats would be home free to choose Hillary with no negative voter repercussions. But I think we need to nominate Obama this year to have a good chance of beating McCain.

[splat]

1. Oh, sure, they'll vote for 100 of years of war

[Alhena]

3. McCain has lucked out- the Iraq War is off most peoples' minds now

[splat]

5. Except Obama takes primary voters for who Iraq is the #1 issue

[Alhena]

7. That's part of his support, but a greater part are the people ...

who buy into his message of getting past the old, divisive ways of politics and working together. Independents tend to be very big on that point.

I'm sure those people will be REAL eager to vote for Hillary if she shoves a party-machine vote down their throat at the convention.

[GarbagemanLB]

4. Hillary voted for the war...

..and while I am able to tell the difference between her current position on Iraq and McCain's, you can be damned sure the GOP will be using that vote against her just like they did against Kerry.

[splat]

6. The GOP owns the war

[Bitwit1234]

2. Got that backwards or you haven't really read many sites

except this one....mostly everybody posts that if the other candidate gets the nod THEY ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR MCCAIN.... CHECK AROUND.

[Barack_America]

8. I think that it's more because Independents dislike the Clintons...

...whereas they see McCain as a non-partisan "straight-shooter".

Let's not fool ourselves. Independents have chosen this non-affiliation because they loathe partisan wars, such as those that were rampant during Bill Clinton's presidency. So why would they vote for Hillary and start that all over again?

[OHdem10]

9. McCain has for years had the support of Independents. It was

Independents who put McCain over the top in NH. This is what
ate into Obamas numbers in NH.

I agree the longer our party struggles to determine a winner
the Independents will become disgusted with Democratic Party.