Does anyone have any Texas or Ohio poll numbers?

[skooooo]

I'm just curious as to what's going on in those states. Thanks for any info.

[skipos]

1. The only Ohio poll I saw was a Hillary blowout

not unlike the California polls a few weeks ago. My guess...
1. Hillary will have a 30% lead weeks out
2. Obama will start campaigning there
3. Obama will lose by @10%
4. It will be hailed as a "comeback" for Hillary

[BuyingThyme]

2. Spoiler.

[ShadowLiberal]

5. The newest Ohio poll I can find is from December 3rd

Yes it did have Hillary beating Obama by over 20 points, but it's so old it's totally unreliable at this point, things may have changed over the last 2 months once states started voting.

[boston bean]

6. I wonder how those people in OH know about Barack.

He hasn't campaigned there yet.

[L. Coyote]

3. Did you try CNN's Election Website? Good detail!

[ShadowLiberal]

4. I don't know of any new polls for the next states to vote

According to Electoral-Vote.com the only new poll published today is in Virginia, and for just republicans.

[Crooked Moon]

7. not exactly hot off the presses...

but here's one for texas from IVR (from january 10). the parenthetical number is the previous polling:

Among Texas Democrats, Barack Obama had his best showing yet, but Hillary Clinton still has a solid lead. Clinton maintains her strength among Whites over 60 and among Latino women, while Obama maintains his strength among African-Americans, but there is significant movement among Latino men. While Clinton has had a very strong lead among all Latinos, Obama is now almost tied among Latino men. There was no other demographic segment that showed significant movement. Bill Richardson had received most of his Latino support from men, so his supporters may have moved to Obama when he dropped out of the race. That is not enough to account for all of Obama's gain, but it may help explain that one noticable shift.

John Edwards did particularly well among middle aged white men, but received almost no support from African-Americans and did much worse among women than men in most age and ethnic groupings. Dennis Kucinich held steady at 1%, Mike Gravel surged to 1% and 10% were undecided.

564 polled 1/10/08, Margin of Error 4.1%

* Clinton 46% (51%)
* Obama 28% (17%)
* Edwards 14% (15%)
* Kucinich 1% (1%)
* Gravel 1% (0%)
* Undecided 10%

Last Updated ( Friday, 11 January 2008 )

http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=32&Itemid=1

polls in ohio, dating back to last summer, have clinton with a 20+ point lead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/oh/ohio_democratic_primary-263.html

[Bucky]

9. IVR did another poll three weeks after that (see post below)

[Crooked Moon]

10. so they did

thanks much for the update.

[Bucky]

8. There was a Texas poll taken on Jan 30-31 & released Feb 1st

http://ivrpolls.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=33&Itemid=1

IVR had Texas like this (with previous results in parenthases):

* Clinton 48% (46%)
* Obama 38% (28%)
* Gravel 3% (0%)
* Undecided 10% (8%)


The site reports...
November and December polls both gave Hillary Clinton a hefty 51% to 17% lead over Barack Obama, but that has changed considerably over the last two polls. Current results give her just a ten point lead over her main rival, 48% to 38%. Mike Gravel received 3% while 12% were undecided. Much of Obama's increase has come from his increase in support among Latinos. In December, Clinton had a 70 to 7 lead in this group. The January 10 poll was 63-18. In this poll, the margin was down to 60-29. That is still a wide margin, but 2-1 is a lot different from 10-1. Edwards was at 5% among Latinos in the January 10 poll, so Obama's gain cannot be completely explained by his departure. There is a significant gender gap as Latino men under 60 were more likely to support Obama while Latinas under 60 gave Clinton large margins. Clinton easily led both sides of the 60+ group.

So Obama is showing a good deal of movement while Clinton has clearly left the "name ID" phase of her campaign and seems to enjoy a solid, but far from permanent, lead here.

[billbuckhead]

11. But what does Zogby say?

:rofl:

[Riley133]

12. Of course we know who Barack Obama is - Clinton, Gravel, Kucinich and Edwards, too!

Ohio - watch the Columbus Dispatch (www.columbusdispatch.com) for local polls and opinions. Note that the governor endorsed Senator Clinton. But a word about the polls - in the 2004 election they seriously flip flopped. We were a projected blue state turned red in about 60 seconds' time, and we were all flabbergasted. There are also voters prepared to cross party lines on both sides of the aisle, so the primary results may not be an accurate reflection of how the GE will play out.

Being one of those pivotal states, we get a lot of campaign stops in the fall. With so many universities and colleges here, I would expect to see quite a lot of Senator Obama.

[Riley133]

13. WOSU - the public television station affiliated with Ohio State

WOSU has good political coverage and local analysts if you're interested. As of now, the polls are still a bit delayed but that should be changing since the primary is March 4th. You may wish to peruse this site and find other links to view:

http://wosu.blogspot.com/