About Pennsylvania, in contradiction to the repeated claims of a blowhard to remain unnamed.

[JVS]

There is a lot of talk about PA and whether it will go Democratic in the GE or not. This is of course an area of interest to me, as a native Pennsylvanian.

The claim keeps being made that it is Western PA that decides if PA goes Democratic or Republican. I want to demonstrate that this is false. In actuality, Western PA (or more accuately the Ohio, Mon, and Allegheny river valley areas and surrounding towns) are the firmest base of Democratic support outside of the City of Philadelphia (the city proper, not the suburbs) The swing area of PA is not Western PA, it is the counties that form the Philadelphia suburban area. I brought these maps from Dave Leip's election atlas to demonstrate. http://uselectionatlas.org/

Here is PA in 1980 The state went to Reagan.

Notice that the Philadelphia proper has gone with the Democrats, but that the rest of the surrounding area has gone Republican.
In the West we have several counties (the counties through which those industrialized river valleys pass) going for the Democrats.

1984

plays out in much the same way with the stategoing to Reagan and once again the western part (Pittsburgh area) actually intensifying its opposition to Reagan. On a personal note, I'd like to add that this was the first election that I noticed as a small child and growing up in a neighborhood where Reaganomics were causing much distress (wives of men who had been Crane Operators making more than my engineer father were now becoming cleaning ladies) My friends and I were surprised with the results. Anyone who calls W PAers Reagan democrats is full of shit. We were getting fucked in the ass and we knew it.

Let's move to 1988

GHW Bush takes the state. Once again notice the couties around Philadelphia are for the GOP. SW PA, State College, Allentown, and Erie are Democratic.

1992 Clinton takes PA

Now look at the Philadelphia suburban corridor up to Allentown. It has voted with the city. The West is pretty similar to how it had been in the elections which Reagan won. Also the middle of the state has been weakened by Perot's influence.

1996 D win

2000 D Win

2004 D Win


When did Western PA ever not go for the Democrat? 1972, but even then you notice that nixon's support is paler in the West than in the East.


The West still forms a core of Democratic support. The region is getting less democratic however. I believe a lot of this is due to the fact that a lot of jobs have left and a lot of people have left with them The support of workers is not as meaningful in a deindustrialized western PA. It is not the Western part of the state that tilts PA republican. It is the sprawling suburbs of Philadelphia that have that power.

[JackintheGreen]

1. You should clarify that on this map that Red=Dem, Blue=Repub

Otherwise, given common usage, it's confusing.

Also, wasn't it Arlen Specter who defined PA as Philadelphia and Pittsburgh separated by Alabama? Or something to that effect.

Whoever said it, true dat!

[Dogmudgeon]

2. It was James Carville

--p!

[JackintheGreen]

7. I knew it was somebody I didn't care for!

:P

[JVS]

3. The whole Philadelphia Pittsburgh thing is a reasonable rule of thumb.

Although I doubt Erie and Allentown would like to hear it. But that's not what I'm taking issue with. The issue I'm discussing is where is the swing vote in PA. It's not Western PA that swings, it's the area around Philadelphia that swings. The city of Philadelphia remains constant, as does Western PA.

[PCIntern]

4. Your post is exactly correct....

As a resident of the suburban counties of Philly, I am acutely aware that WE are the swing region...and are becoming increasingly Dem. Narberth, which was Rethug for...oh, about 230 years (no lie) is now Dem...for the first time. Lower Merion, a community which was filled with former Dems who had turned Rethug when they made a few bucks, is now solidly Dem and increasing in the plurality. It is a privilege to have been among the activist Dems in this region during this dramatic turnaround.

On edit: And the Rethug Congressman Curt Weldon LOST to 3 star Admiral Joe Sestak in an area considered impossibly Rethug for YEARS, in Delaware County, and I believe that we're going to unseat local Montco schmuck Gerlach this year.

[JackintheGreen]

8. We'll unseat Gerlach

even if I have to vote twice!

[TwilightGardener]

5. Agree--I grew up in Allegheny Co, my family is still there--

western PA is a Democratic stronghold. I don't see that changing.

[Sock Puppet]

6. kick