Why Barack Obama will probably beat out Hillary Clinton

[FlyingSquirrel]

People usually go for the candidate which engenders and/or embodies the most optimism.

http://www.ppc.sas.upenn.edu/cvabs.htm#ab119

119. Abstract from Pessimistic ruminations predicts defeat of presidential candidates, 1900 to 1984.

Two psychological variables, pessimistic explanatory style and rumination about bad events, combine to predict depression and susceptibility to helplessness. We hypothesize that these variables should also predict the appeal of a presidential candidate’s message, and analyzed pessimistic rumination in Democratic and Republican nomination acceptance speeches from 1948 to 1984. A blind, reliable content analyses showed that the candidate who was more a pessimistic ruminator lost 9 out of 10 times, and the victory margin was proportional to the difference between the candidates in pessimistic rumination. This was not due to a poor showing in the polls at nomination leading both to pessimistic rumination and defeat. Partialing out incumbency and standing in the polls around the time of nomination, the pessimistic rumination difference correlated with the victory margin (partial r=.89, p<.01). This basic finding was replicated for 1900 to 1944. The pessimistic ruminator lost 9 of 12 elections, and the difference in pessimistic rumination correlated with the size of the loss (r=.71). Three mechanisms are proposed by which pessimistic ruminators should lose: (a) voter aversion to depressive personalities, (b) the appeal to voters of hope, and (c) candidate passivity. As evidence for the third mechanism, pessimistic ruminators make fewer stops per day on the campaign trail. These results suggest that the American voter, across historical periods, place a high premium on the appearance of hope.

-----

Now I'm not saying Hillary Clinton is a pessimist. Just that Barack Obama is MORE of an optimist than Hillary, which bodes well for his future in the coming months.

[LisaM]

1. Were you at the Hillary rally last night?

Her message was VERY positive and optimistic. In fact, for one of the first times every, I felt a thrill about being an American and thinking we can achieve great things.

I'm sure the media reports of her fantastic optimism and moving speech will be hitting the airwaves any minute now!

It was very inspiring.

[Madam Mossfern]

4. Careful

That seems very cultish....moving speech and all.
Just saying.

[LisaM]

5. Don't worry, it was loaded with specifics, too

About health care, the environment, and Iraq.

[FlyingSquirrel]

9. No, but I've been listening to her in the debates.

[Quixote1818]

2. I agree, and with Hillary's comments about false Hope etc

she is going to have problems there.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

3. lets wait for the next REAL debate this time....not the love fest Kodak Moment....then we'll see

[Zueda]

6. I was applying this idea to my thought on why ...

he most likely will take Louisiana due to Katrina.

[AGirl]

7. Religious people tend to be more optimistic.

[Sulawesi]

11. BS!

[onehandle]

8. And the tallest candidate always wins. ...until 2004 came along. nt

[FlyingSquirrel]

10. The difference is that what you're talking about is blurbs from the media..

And what I'm talking about is a study done by people with PhD's in Psychology and was published in peer-reviewed journals and later in the book "Learned Optimism".