SUPER TUESDAY, Super Draw?

[mikekohr]

With NM still to close to call, Senator Barack Obama won 13 states, Senator Clinton 8. Senator Clinton edged out Senator Obama in the popular vote by a few hundred, getting just over 7.3 million votes. And depending on which tally you use Senator Obama edged out Senator Clinton in the delegates won or struck a dead even tie as NBC is reporting.

A few trends have held steady thus far: Clinton is drawing strength from women, Hispanics and party regulars, Obama's holds the edge with men, African Americans, moderates, independents and cross-over Republican voters. And in nearly every contest so far, Senator Obama has closed large deficits in the polls in the final weeks before election day to win upset victories or finish within striking distance.

But perhaps the defining development is the strength of the candidates going into the final rounds of this fight. As the establishment candidate, Senator Clinton has many advantages and must be considered the favorite based on that fact alone. But ominously for Senator Clinton looms not only a playing field that favors Senator Obama in 10 or more of the next 14 contests, but the threat of financial woes.

On 2/6/2008 Senator Clinton announced that she lent her campaign $5 million dollars from her personal checkbook on a day that Senator Obama raised $3 million. She also revealed that members of her campaign staff are working without pay.

Senator Obama is outraising Senator Clinton by more than 2 to 1 by attracting a huge, unprecedented number of small donors. Clinton's reliance on large donors may hamstring her efforts in the championship rounds of this fight as 70% of her donors have reached the allowable limit of $2300.00. Only a small percentage of Obama's supporters have reached this cut-off point.

In the battle over money it appears the peasants have reached the gates of the palace. The question that stands is will the palace guard (Super-Delegates) turn on their Queen.

mike kohr

[Dogmudgeon]

1. "Clinton's reliance on large donors ..."

Large donors make up about 10% of Hillary's contributors, but about 1% of Obama's.

http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/index.asp">(Click and follow the links on each candidate.)

This gives Team Obama bragging rights, not lying rights.

--p!

[mikekohr]

2. 70% at limit of $2,300.00 ?

I've read that 70% of Clinton's support is maxed out at the yearly limit of $2,300.00. Do you have confirmation of this? (I could not find this figure on the site you listed). If it's true I would consider the majority nof her supporters as "big donors." Anything over $20.00 puts a hurt on me.



mike kohr

p.s. Thanks for this link! What a great resource! http://www.opensecrets.org/pres08/donordems.asp?cycle=2008

[Dogmudgeon]

3. Reporters use pretty fluid terms

Besides, there is a lot of Obama spin in those stories (Hillary spin is seen on other stories).

Hillary's supporters have been contributing off-and-on for over a year; Obama's funds are newer, fresher, and have a longer shelf-life. Plus, there is an Obama "bubble" right now. The campaigns are in flux, and will fluck up for a few more months.

NewsMeat is also a good resource. I think it's NewsMeat.org but I don't have an exact link.

And Welcome to DU!

No, really. :)

--p!

[TexasObserver]

4. I'd say big win for Obama.

She was leading in every venue a month ago. She lost most of the states and half the delegates. She is unable to raise anywhere near the money he is raising. Her supporters are tapped out. His contributors outnumber hers five to one.

He's got a chance to run off some victories the next few weeks, and could really be ready to seal the deal in March.