Newsweek explains why Obama may sweep ALL Feb contests and have HUGE momentum!

[usregimechange]

1) The Calendar: Seven of the eight nominating contests remaining in February seem tailored to Obama's strengths.

With 68 delegates, Washington is this Saturday's biggest prize--and every early indicator points to an Obama win. The delegate-rich western half of the state is dense with highly educated white liberals--a demographic that tends to favor Obama, who won voters with a four-year or post-graduate degree in 11 of the 16 Super Tuesday states and swept among people who earn more than $100,000 a year. Many of these supporters may prove to be "former Deaniacs" --"a serious constituency here," says political reporter Eli Sanders of Seattle's The Stranger, who adds that "Deaniacs and the Dean-style momentum in Washington are both very tangibly behind Obama." ...

So far, eight states have conducted caucuses, and seven of them--Iowa, Alaska, Colorado, Idaho, Kansas, Minnesota and North Dakota--have chosen Obama, often by margins of 20, 30 or 50 points; five were fellow Plains States. If Obama can win by 50 in Kansas, the thinking goes, he should do well in neighboring Nebraska...

Also on Saturday: the Louisiana primary. In South Carolina, Obama racked up a 28-point margin largely on the strength of his support among black voters, and he repeated the performance yesterday in Georgia and Alabama, where African-Americans chose him six-to-one over Clinton. Louisiana is 32 percent black--meaning that Obama arrives as the prohibitive favorite. Expect another overwhelming win...

But right now the oddsmakers says that Obama has a strong chance to win eight straight contests by the time the polls close in his home state of Hawaii on Feb. 19...

2) The Cash

http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/02/06/february-advantage-obama.aspx

[papau]

1. It is very likely Obama wins all the remaining Feb contests - but 3/4/08 may be of more interest

[usregimechange]

3. But by that time Obama may have racked up a lot of wins, media attention, money...

[Tatiana]

8. Which may tip Texas.... n/t

[loveangelc]

21. I think Obama has a better chance of Ohio than Texas....

[Usrename]

25. Louisiana is a closed primary. Dems only. No indies or crossover.

I know Lousiana has a large percentage of black voters, and that may be to Obama's advantage, but Hillary has been doing very well among rank-and-file Democrats, who will be the only ones allowed to vote in this primary.

It may be much, much tougher than anyone here is expecting. Mary Landrieu is a Democrat from Louisiana. It can be a lot different down there.

Has anybody else here considered that Lousiana is only for Dems?

[Tatiana]

26. The last poll that was done in Texas showed Hillary at 33%

Clinton 33%

Obama 21%

Edwards 8%

Gore (yes, Al Gore) 10%

Keep in mind this was 9 months ago when Edwards was still in the race and people thought Al Gore could still be drafted. That's essentially 39% of Texans who don't want Hillary and 33% that do. I'm thinking that given Obama's increased standing, fundraising efforts, and better campaigning, Obama is not far behind Clinton with Texans at all. I know they love her in Austin and Houston, but I don't know that many in DFW who are thrilled with her.

[loveangelc]

29. True. Plus Austin is a college town and Houston has a large black population.

but it also has a large hispanic population. Idk if I believe that poll, its so hard to poll a huge state like TX I would think, but Obama has a disadvantage b/c of the hispanics i think...

[JackORoses]

12. tell that to Giuliani, he tried a similar scheme

[DemocratSinceBirth]

15. The Ghoul Had One Delegate

Hillary has more than half the delegates needed for nomination:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_delegate_count.html


Hillary is the Muhammad Ali of politics...He literally let George Foreman use him as a punching bag for eight ronds so he could achieve his goal- winning back his championship...

Hillary would rather go out on a stretcher than lose this nomination...Impeachment has shown us the Clintons' aren't quitters...


on edit- with proportional representation she will be at parity with Obama even after losing these states...

[JackORoses]

16. you know how people are. guess what 8 victories in a row does to Public Opinion?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

19. Ronald Reagan Lost Eleven Primaries In A Row

Ronald Reagan lost the first eleven contests in a row to Gerald Ford in 1976 before he won North Carolina and then went on a major winning streak and came within fifty six delegates of beating a sitting president...

Hillary has put together a coalition of working class whites, Asians, Latinos, single women, and the elderly, a veritable collection of the most vulnerable in society...These are not people given to fads...They look to Hillary because they believe she can get things done... They won't abandon her and she won't abandon them...

If you were honest with yourself you would admit that Hillary is a lot of things but she is not a "go gently into that good night" type of person...

[Usrename]

22. Obama is no Gerald Ford!

:rofl:

[DemocratSinceBirth]

24. He Was A Sitting President

The original poster compared The Ghoul with Hillary...I could think of vulgar analogies to demonstrate how much politically stronger she is than him but they are all vulgar...

No matter what happens she will win WV,KY PN, OH, and TX and the latter three states have a boat load of delegates...

The Clintons' aren't quitters...They fight best when the only option is defeat...

[Usrename]

27. I know, I was just joking.

I was going to do the whole " I served with Jerry Ford: I knew Jerry Ford; Jerry Ford was a friend of mine" thing, but I kept laughing too hard.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

30. You're In New Smyrna Beach

I live in Lake Mary but I haven't been there in thirty years...Funny...It's what? Sixty miles away...

[Usrename]

32. Wow! Hi, neighbor!

:hi:

I think it's less than that going through Sanford to 415, maybe only 45 miles, an about as fast as going I-4, depending on traffic.

You need to get over here to the beach while it's still 80 degrees out there.

[JackORoses]

34. oh, she won't drop out, but her voter base will

[grantcart]

2. it would be great but we are in for a street brawl. There are those that

will not stop at anything to be deterred.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. He can definitely position himself well here.

[dkf]

5. Better to underexpect...over deliver.

[Tatiana]

6. I think a sweep is very likely.

The only ? is Virginia and Webb may help there. I think Obama squeaks by Clinton in Virgina and wins all the remaining February states.

[Radical Activist]

7. It could be effectively over after 2/19

I don't think Hillary can suffer a string of losses and remain viable.

[Tatiana]

9. No. She will not give up unless she loses PA. n/t

[Radical Activist]

11. Its not entirely up to her.

If people stop donating and everyone else sees that she's going to lose. She's smart enough to know when its over and drop out if it comes to that.

[Tatiana]

14. Terry McAuliffe will make sure she has enough bundlers to make it till April. n/t

[ursi]

10. that was interesting ...I guess we will have to wait and see

[Wombatzu]

13. Obama supporters need to chill

with the February sweep talk. all Clinton did on Super Tuesday was hold most of her ground, and it got perceived for a while as a win because hopes had gotten so high for Obama. keep this talk up and if she pulls out a couple of upcoming contests the same thing will happen.

[loveangelc]

23. i agree.

[McCamy Taylor]

17. Question:How does strength in caucuses translate the polling booths?

November will be all polling booths. Will voters going into booths have second thoughts about a new candidate and opt for experience as they have done in many of the primaries?

Caucuses favor Obama, because he has supporters to encourage other caucus goers to take a chance with something new. They get pepped up.

I am a little bit concerned about this. I want to hear a seasoned Obama supporter address it.Will he get an older, more experienced VP, the way that W. did in 2000 to reassure voters?

[McCamy Taylor]

18. Newsweek is a GE publication. Be wary. They are backing McCain. He wants to run vs. Obama.

He has already expressed as much. McCain does not have much going for him except that he is old so he will play up his experience and his military and foreign policy experience. You can count upon the Bush administration to create a military crisis this summer or fall that will make McCain's military experience seem essential.

How is Obama planning to address the strategy? Is he lining up a seasoned military VP?

The Pentagon is actively campaigning for McCain (against their own rules). Obama needs to expect the military establishment to slime him (they would do the same to Hillary). It will not be pretty. He needs a military VP that the Pentagon will have trouble disavowing desperately.

[Dogmudgeon]

20. Obama will probably win most or all

... of the races this month.

This will be Obama's big month.

In March, that will start to change. The people drawn to him for the excitement of the moment will lose their zeal. The money raising will slacken off. The momentum will either stabilize or fall off. Hillary could have a run of better fortunes. These are all normal occurrences in political campaigns, but they will be especially pronounced in Obama's campaign. How he manages the transition from sprinter to marathoner will be first real test of his executive ability.

Meanwhile, the GOP will be getting cranked up. Since Obama is now fully competitive with Hillary, look for the media to transfer their swoon from Obama to McCain.

He will have to really concentrate in order to win PA and OH; TX may be a little easier, but it is still a big job. PA (my state) is more solidly pro-Clinton than even NY is -- we have all those older folks, the oldest population average in the USA. We like Obama but we love Hillary.

Hillary's real comeback will begin in March. Given the normal changes in political races, Obama should plan to hunker down in the early spring. I do not foresee any long-term dominance of either candidate unless one of them makes an enormous blunder. I also think if there is going to be a big decision made by the candidates and Howard Dean (i.e., a team run), it will be finalized in late May.

(And please, no screaming about how I hate Obama. I am in "wonk mode" and I have described these possibilities accurately and honestly. I am sure Obama is planning for these contingencies, too -- he's running for president, not king of homeroom.)

--p!

[CyberPieHole]

28. He didn't win ALL the Feb contests thus far...what happened to the "surge"?

California went to Clinton. When Obama was supposed to be 13 points ahead of her.

[Name removed]

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[usregimechange]

35. The article just explained the different demographics.

[Seabiscuit]

31. When I first read the title my mind turned "Newsweek" into "Newspeak".