For those who claim Hillary got more delegates yesterday. WRONG! You just just DON'T KNOW!

[cascadiance]

I've been harvesting the numbers from CNN's web site for the
pledged delegates.  Don't mix in the super delegates.  They
are NOT pledged, and likely, if they want to get their hides
reelected won't overturn the popular choice of pledged
delegates.  So please don't echo the media's spin trying to
get Hillary elected!  Please!

I'm still not in the Obama camp just yet, and support Edwards
hopefully still being able to help broker some favors for
progressives with his strengths in voters out there.

Note the following:

1) Obama already had a 15 vote pledged vote lead (subtracting
Florida and Michigan of course) going in to Super Tuesday.
2) From Super Tuesday, Hillary NOW has a current lead of
delegates of 790 to 767.
3) When 1 and 2 are added, Hillary currently only has an 8
delegate lead of 838-830.
3) However, there are still 121 votes that aren't pledged yet.
 Far more than the margin of 8 here.
4) If you look at the percentages of votes for each state, you
can postulate what delegates SHOULD be going to each
candidate.
5) Further down the page, the difference between what they
SHOULD be getting versus what they already have committed, is
what I would classify them as favored as getting.  I know
that's not the way it really works with all of the arcane
delegate rules out there, but that's the closest to any sane
estimate you'll get.  I've made those numbers
"tossup" as those delegates representing votes of
other candidates (Edwards, etc., which is anyone's guess how
they will be "reapportioned").
6) If you add these differences up, of those 121 remaining
delegates, Obama should be favored to get 63 of those, Hillary
48, and 32 are "tossups".
7) Adding those "favored" delegates to the total
likely gives Obama a lead of 895 to 862 delegates with 32
others that are tossups.  Even if all of them broke to
Hillary, he'd still be one up on her.
8) When ALL of the delegates are pledged, I'd say that it is
very unlikely that she will lead in delegate counts, even for
Super Tuesday itself.  That is if these "arcane"
delegate rules truly try to reward those that got more votes
for the most part.

Summarizing, it is a DAMN close race.  Nothing for ANYONE to
be chanting home that THEY WON!  And that's the way I like it.
One of them will have to start saying more progressive things
to get the holdout Edwards voters and delegates, which is good
for all of us!

Here's a list of the totals so far:

State:       Total:    Obama:         Clinton:
------------------------------------------------
Alabama       52    20 (56%)  29    21 (42%)  22
Alaska        13     9 (75%)   9     4 (25%)   4  (*)
Arizona       56    25 (42%)  25    30 (51%)  30
Arkansas      35     8 (27%)   8    27 (70%)  27  (*)
California   370   152 (42%) 155   195 (52%) 195
Colorado      55    13 (67%)  37     6 (32%)  18
Connecticut   48    26 (51%)  26    22 (47%)  22  (*)
Delaware      15     9 (53%)   9     6 (43%)   6  (*)
Georgia       87    39 (67%)  58    21 (31%)  27
Idaho         18    15 (79%)  15     3 (17%)   3  (*)
Illinois     153    91 (65%)  99    45 (33%)  50
Kansas        32    23 (74%)  23     9 (26%)   9  (*)
Massachusetts 93    38 (41%)  38    55 (56%)  55  (*)
Minnesota     72    48 (67%)  48    24 (32%)  24  (*)
Missouri      72    36 (49%)  36    36 (48%)  36  (*)
New Jersey   107    48 (44%)  48    59 (54%)  59  (*)
New Mexico    26    12 (48%)  12    13 (49%)  13
New York     232    93 (40%)  93   138 (57%) 138
North Dakota  13     8 (61%)   8     5 (37%)   5  (*)
Oklahoma      38    14 (31%)  14    24 (55%)  24  (*)
Tennessee     68    26 (41%)  28    38 (54%)  38
Utah          23    14 (57%)  14     9 (39%)   9  (*)
----------------------------------------------------
TOTALS:            767       832   790       814

* - Delegates fully pledged:          


Iowa          45        16          15          14 (**)
New Hampshire 27         9           9           4 (**)
Nevada        25        13          12
S Carolina    45        25          12           8 (**)
-------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS:                 63          48          26 (**)

Total Pledged          830         838

** - John Edwards 

Outstanding delegates to be decided:
State:       Total:    Obama:     Clinton:    Tossup:
---------------------------------------------------------
Alabama       11         9           1           1
Arizona        1                                 1
California    23         3                      20
Colorado      36        24          12           
Georgia       27        19           6           2
Illinois      17         8           5           4
New Mexico     1                                 1
New York       1                                 1
Tennessee      4         2                       2
---------------------------------------------------------
TOTALS:      121        65          24          32

Overall TOTAL:         895         862          32

[eyesroll]

1. Of COURSE Clinton didn't get more delegates yesterday! Obama didn't either! Yesterday was Wednesday!

The election was on Tuesday! :bounce:

[cascadiance]

6. OK. You caught me there...

But you don't have arguments with the other data now do you?

[Windy]

2. Please, you can't let facts get in the way of delusion! come on now! n/t

[cascadiance]

4. So tell me WHAT are your interpretations of facts and delusion?

I SAID that these aren't the real rules. But the FACT is that Hillary hasn't claimed most of all of the delegates from yesterday, since 121 still are yet to be claimed, and that is far more than the margin she has now. To say that postulating that these might be favored based on the percentage of the votes that turned out is a delusion, is a delusional conspiracy theory of your own. It's a guess. I said as much. But I think its far better of a guess than someone claiming that she'll get most of those delegates with NO rationale whatsoever.

[Windy]

9. I forgot my sarcasm button. I agree with you!! :o)

[cascadiance]

12. Oh yes... Solly about that...

With job security messed up now this week as well as these elections and Edwards pulling out, I guess I'm losing my sense of humor! :)

[HopeforChange]

3. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR THIS INFORMATION

[MadBadger]

5. The Obama Campaign has delegates at Obama 910, Hillary 882

[Lucinda]

7. Without Supers: Hillary - 840 - Obama 831 Link:

http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#D

Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 840 Superdelegates: 193 Total: 1,033

Barack Obama
Pledged: 831 Superdelegates: 106 Total: 937

[Windy]

10. and at another link...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/

Obama clearly ahead....

[cascadiance]

11. Looking at their graph, here are the state by state differences from above chart:

Not sure how CNN got those totals.  I think it must be wrong. 
I readded stuff up again, and I rechecked their pages for each
of the states and the numbers above are right.  If someone
else sees an error up there (or something out of date, let me
know and I'll fix it).

MSNBC differences:

Obama
Alabama     MSNBC=25  CNN=20   +5
California  MSNBC=163 CNN=152 +11
Colorado    MSNBC=19  CNN=13   +6
Georgia     MSNBC=45  CNN=39   +6
Tennessee   MSNBC=29  CNN=26   +3
---------------------------------
                              +31

767 + 31 + 63 = 861 (which IS MSNBC's total)

Clinton
Alabama     MSNBC=23  CNN=21   +2
Arizona     MSNBC=31  CNN=30   +1
Arkansas    MSNBC=25  CNN=25   -2
California  MSNBC=207 CNN=195 +12
Colorado    MSNBC=9   CNN=6    +3
Georgia     MSNBC=24  CNN=21   +3
Illinois    MSNBC=48  CNN=45   +3
Tennessee   MSNBC=33  CNN=38   -5
---------------------------------
                              +17

790 + 17 + 48 = 855 (which IS MSNBC's total)

CNN's data is WRONG someplace.  It's inconsistent!

[HughMoran]

8. Whatever, nothing was decided Tuesday and won't be for a LONG time

Thanks for the post anyway.