MSNBC: Confidential Obama campaign memo leaked...Obama will have more delegates by June!

[BluegrassDem]

I just saw this on MSNBC. Obama people must've leaked this on purpose to the media, but in any case, the Obama strategists have analyzed and concluded that they will have about 20-30 more pledged delegates by the convention than Hillary. In this calculation, the Obama campaign have given that they will lose PA, OH, and TX. Given those 3 losses, the Obama folks predict they will still lead in the delegate count. They will compete hard in those states, but they are analyzing it as if he'd lose it. If he happens to win any of those states, then it's gravy from then on out.

I hope this is holds up. If he goes into August with more pledged delegates, he will be the nominee. I don't think the Democratic Party could afford a split. I think most SD's will probably go along with whoever wins the pledged delegates.

[comfycouch]

1. This just in: The anonymous source's last name is Nostradamus n/t

[Alhena]

It might even be better than that ...

when I read a news report on this story this morning, the impression I got was that Obama was predicted to be leading *even with* the superdeletes counted. I say this because the report talked about the "remaining superdelegates" deciding the election.

[Colobo]

2. I think we will win!

[SammyWinstonJack]

3. Well good for him!

:puke:

[sandnsea]

4. We need to win WA & LA

And I hope people take some time to phone bank tomorrow to make that happen. We can't rely on "conventional wisdom" for anything.

[angie_love]

5. This may even be a worst case scenerio

In that case it is good news for Obama. However, I still think he needs to win one of those 3 big states. It will be incredibly tough but it is doable. I think TX might be his best chance, and maybe he can keep it close in OH. I odn't know, I really do NOT want a brokered convention. It will be HORRIBLE for the party and while we're still fighting, McCain will be attacking us. We'll be seen as petty.

[billbuckhead]

8. "must've leaked this on purpose to the media"

And this is the new politics? :spray:

[BluegrassDem]

11. This is the worst case scenario, and Obama could still have more delegates

It's true that TX is probably his best chance. I think PA is probably his 2nd best chance cause of the huge urban population in Philly and Pittsburgh. Philly usually bails out the Dems in PA and should help Obama.

[jackson_dem]

43. He isn't winning Texas if he loses Latinos by 40 points again

Ohio is a better opportunity for him and he has the Midwest advantage there.

[maximusveritas]

6. "I think most SD's will probably go along with whoever wins the pledged delegates."

I don't think that's neccesarily true.

If you notice, most media outlets have been releasing delegate totals that include the superdelegates already pledged. So even with the lead among pledged delegates, Obama will probably be trailing among total delegates. This will make it less clear where the remaining superdelegates will go.

[angie_love]

9. max, those superdelegates can switch

I've heard rumblings that Clintons are not well liked in congress. We'll see how it pans out.

[maximusveritas]

17. They can, but I don't think it's likely

If I had to predict, I think Clinton will win enough superdelegates to win the nomination even though she will lose among pledged delegates. That's how I see it shaking it out. And I think she will be forced to quickly pick Obama as her VP in order to unify the party after this.

[KennedyGuy]

7. Old news..hardly suprising the view from the Obama camp would be that he would be ahead..

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/02/06/obama-strategy-memo-accid_n_85415.html

"Barack Obama's campaign is forecasting that the Democratic presidential race will remain deadlocked after the primaries end, and the outcome may depend on a fight over whether delegations from Florida and Michigan are counted.

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries".

[caligirl]

24. Look, Hillary isn't in the lead now, she isn't expected to win the

next round of states, she is limited $$ wise so only campaigning in the states even Obama's people say they aren't planning to get. The thing is Hillary came out of California with fewer delegates than her strategy allowed for. 195 to 155 for Obama. He thought he would get even fewer than he did. She bet the farm on Iowa and California and a weaker competitor. Its not materializing as they had worked their strategy. don't think I would count her out yet. She is tough, Obama is too though.

[Nitrogenica]

10. It is more important for us to make it happen.

Mustard be damned!

[bluestateguy]

12. I think he can win Pennsylvania

With hard work. Black voters in Pittsburgh and Phildelphia, the rich suburbanites in Montgomery and Delaware Counties adn the college kids in State College (Penn State): these are Obama voters. I think he could pull it out if he works the state hard.

[BluegrassDem]

16. Yeah, PA is doable. I think Ohio is his toughest challenge

The demographics aren't the greatest there for him, but for his advantage, he'll actually be able to spend time in the state and criss-cross it so the people get to know him. He doesn't necessarily have to win any of the big ones, but if he can pull 47-49% of the vote, he'll split the delegates and it won't even matter.

[Drunken Irishman]

45. I think by the time Ohio and Texas vote, Clinton's campaign will be in more trouble than today.

Clinton has already shown her hand and she's going to try in some states throughout February, but not put forth an effort that can contend with Obama. Obama is going to flood every state that votes in February, while Clinton will just try to do enough to stay afloat. She'll go hard at Washington and Virginia, but even victory there seems less likely.

So we've got elections this Saturday:

Louisiana - Should easily go to Obama.

Nebraska - Won't overwhelmingly go to Obama, but Clinton has already admitted she's not running many ads here. Obama does well in caucus states and seems to do really well in middle America.

Washington - Again a caucus, where the recent poll had him with a double digit lead. Hillary sent Bill out here, but Obama is expected to have a huge rally tomorrow.

U.S. Virgin Islands - Over 70% of its population is black, I think -- even though it's not much -- Obama wins in a blowout.

Sunday:

Maine - Probably Clinton's best shot at victory over the weekend. Maine is a caucus, though, so you have to give a slight edge to Obama. It will be close, though.

Tuesday:

DC - Obama in a romp.
Maryland - Obama will do very well here.
Virignia - I'll toss-up, leaning toward Obama. I'd like to see some polls from Virginia before I make a claim otherwise.

Saturday:

Hawaii - Obama was born here and is a caucus, he'll win easily.
Wisconsin - It'll be interesting to see how this breaks. While Wisconsin is white, there is a huge college population that coult tilt it in favor for Obama.

So let's say Obama wins most of these states, that means all throughout February he's getting the news. How can Clinton counteract that? If things go as well as I hope they will, Obama will start making a comeback in both Ohio and Texas.

[thevoiceofreason]

19. Texas will be fascinating.

Doing what we can

[Yael]

32. The campaigns here in PA are just kicking off

The petitions for names on the ballot and delegates have to be turned in on Tuesday.

Now that John is out, I am signing for Obama this weekend so we have delegates for the convention from our area. (We can only sign for one candidate by law).

[Thrill]

13. Sounds good. This is why I like the split thing

[UALRBSofL]

14. Your not including the florida delegates and super delegates

That Senator Nelson is pushing to be counted based on January 29th primary.

[newmajority]

23. There are no Florida delegates

And you can thank Nelson for that.

[Clintonista2]

15. We already know that superdelegates will decide this thing. 55% of pledged delegates

have already been distributed.

[angie_love]

20. And they can switch, which if they know whats good for them, they will

[Mags]

28. and what are you gonna do if they don't?

[CoffeeCat]

18. I think this was intentionally leaked...

...and I think they're FRICKIN BRILLIANT!!!!

In effect, they're neutralizing Hillary wins in OH, TX and PA--and saying they don't matter.
ALSO, they very well could win in OH, TX and PA. Obama has a very serious ground game in
Texas. He's got 10 Field Directors there. They're downplaying their successes there, so if
they do well--it will seem like a blowout of epic proportions. If they don't win--oh well--that's
what they expected and they win more delegates anyway.

BRILLIANT, I TELL YOU!!!

Have the Obama supporters looked at the 10 states that vote before Mar 5. The vast majority are secure
Obama wins, and at least half could be major Obama blowouts. His multiple wins will garner major
momentum going into the Mar 5 contests, TX, PA, OH.

She's putting all of her resources into TX, PA, OH. It's the Rudy strategy. By the time the Obama
tidal wave hits TX, PA, and OH--Hillary's time spent in those states won't really matter.

Awesome leaked memo, Obama campaign!

[angie_love]

21. I agree

Hillary is now making a run at the other upcoming states though. So shes not completely out of it.. She can still win a couple of those states like ME, NE, maybe even Washington. I don't want to have too high of expectations for him. But I think its wise for him to give a warning to the superdelegates. And its also wise for him to downplay expectations in TX, PA, OH. If he can win one of those 3, he wins the nomination, end of story. If he loses all 3 in a big way, it will be tough. Perception goes a long way.

[BluegrassDem]

22. Yes, it was a brilliant leak cause it puts the SD's on notice to wait until August!

If the SD's know this confidential Obama info., then they are less likely to pick sides now and wait. That's what Obama wants. If he goes into Denver with more delegates, they won't deny him the nomination.

By August, I predict that he'll have Al Gore and John Edwards in his corner to go along with Ted Kennedy. Those Big 3 will be able to blunt Bill Clinton and put up a force to protect Obama.

[CoffeeCat]

29. I've been wondering where John Edwards is...

I haven't heard anything...anyone else?

There is a rumor floating that Gore will endorse Obama. I read that this
came from the Clinton camp. The Ted Kennedy endorsement of Obama came
first from the Clinton camp too.

I miss John Edwards.

I hope Obama picks him as veep.

[Skip Intro]

25. Think they can get me the Lotto numbers for the thrid Wednesday in June?

[Bullet1987]

26. If they're predicting losses in PA, OH, and TX...does that mean

they're ASSUMING they're going to sweep the rest of February? If so, that's ballsy. There's a few states like Maine, Virginia, and Louisiana where I think Clinton will be competitive.

[Yael]

33. I read that it is the lowering expectations thing.

Could be wrong. Certainly wouldn't be the first time.

[Lucinda]

27. So if I write a memo saying my bank account will have an extra 50k by June and leak it,

it will happen? Awesome!
Who knew it was that easy to get what you want?

[angie_love]

31. Only if there are good indications that you will have 50k by June

based on evidence that supports your claim. you've never made an educated guess or conclusion before?

[Lucinda]

34. Yes I have...And I know the definition of "spin" too.

[harun]

30. Don't give up Obama supporters, regardless of what the pundits,

the media, and the people say here, Obama knows he can get the numbers needed to win it outright.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. Let Me See If I Understand This

He's going to lose the big states-OH,PN, and TX that come toward the end of the contest,make sure that the delegates from the fourth largest state-Florida, and the sixth largest state-Michigan, in the Union aren't counted, lose the popular vote by over one million, take a paltry twenty delegate lead after all that, be given the nomination and expect there to be no dissension...

I see mass defections from Latinos, working class whites, older whites, and women...

That smells...

And it has the smell of President John McCain...

[papau]

36. Don't see much dif between O and Mc in expected results- 'course in 2002 Mc said Iraq would be "easy

[Benhurst]

38. I agree.

I wish there had been a provision for a national runoff between the two top candidates; but there wasn't.

Either Clinton and Obama are going to have to reach a compromise and together sell it to the super delegates, or the party is going to have to go with a compromise candidate.

If one side of the other finesses a victory when in fact its candidate has been voted against by the majority of those who voted or attended the caucuses (which would be the case for either Clinton or Obama) then we'd better work to hold on to as many Congressional seats as we can and be prepared to work as best we can with President McCain.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

41. I Often Say This On The Board

There is a difference between the empirical (the way things are) and the normative (the way you, me, or we want things to be)... There's no way you can have a situation where half the Democrats feel they were jobbed and win the general election...

Many will not not vote and more than a few will vote for McCain...

[elixir]

37. It's a bold but dangerous stategy to leak this kind of inside campaign discussion. Alot can happen

between now and April.

[TriMetFan]

39. Like people thinking that he is becoming....

arrogant.

[Azathoth]

40. It was accidental n/t

[Tatiana]

42. Of course this was leaked on purpose.

Just giving the superdelegates a "heads up" that if Obama leads in the delegates and it boils down to the votes of the superdelegates to decide the nomination, these superdelegates might want to give consider whether they want to be the deciding factor (and how the electorate will stomach such an outcome).

[question everything]

44. MSNBC (and Newsweek): Hate, trash Clinton at every opportunity

even when she appears to be winning.

We want the black guy story and we don't want a castrating (have we heard this term, yet) female in the boy's club.