Something unsettling I heard on NPR re: Indepdendents

[redqueen]

Mara Liasson was talking with a pollster this morning on Morning Edition (forget his name/org) and he was discussing the polarization, early interest, etc. in this election. He mentioned how the people who are already committed are committed, and most likely won't change their minds. He also said that bush had no advantage over Kerry unless bush delivered a negative message about Kerry, then respondents favored bush.

Then he went on to discuss independents (not sure if he means registered independents or people who just don't self-identify as with any major party). He asserted that this group did not identify with any ideology and was heavily dependent on news to influence their views. He also said they were very volatile.

Don't know how valid his views are, but they sure spooked me. If we're depending on this group to decide the election, and they're going by what they read/hear/see in the mainstream media, then we have a hell of a fight on our hands.

[demnan]

1. I would venture to say

we have nearly no chance at all.

[sangh0]

2. Read yesterday's Sunday NY Times - Week in Review section

They have stats on these independents. Most are women and most are either moderate or liberal, and more of them are leaning Kerry than leaning Bush*

[nadinbrzezinski]

3. We have a fight regardless,

DO NOT for a minute think that this is over until the last vote is coutted

[janx]

4. I heard the beginning of this--missed the interviews with the

pollsters. I did hear that Kerry and Bush* are basically tied at this point in the polls, but I'm not sure that Nader was a factor in the polling process. Did you hear anything about this?

[redqueen]

5. I missed that I guess

I hate listening while driving because I always miss something. I wish they'd provide transcripts. :(

[SoonerShankle]

12. They do -

-visit . They may charge a fee to download the transcript, but they usually always provide transcripts of their shows.

[redqueen]

13. Well I'll be...

Thanks! I thought you had to listen on the web, and I can't since I'm at work.

Not that I can really afford them now... but this might come in handy! Thanks!

[paulk]

6. heard the interview

It mentioned the effect negative campaigning against Kerry would have, but no mention of negative campaigning against Bush. Was that question asked or what? Pollster didn't say.

I don't know about NPR, anymore. I don't trust them much more than any other mainstream news agency these days.

[redqueen]

7. Ever since funding was cut

in the repub congress under clinton, they've had to sell out to corporate donors more and more. Needless to say they're corrupted by it.

They didn't say anything about how going negative against bush affected anything, but I wonder if that's because it's hard to find much that Kerry says that doesn't already include some negative thing about bush in it. :shrug:

[Ganja Ninja]

8. Every time the price of gas goes up the light comes on for a few..

more people. I doubt Bush's numbers will ever fall below 40% nationwide but were dealing with an electoral system. If Kerry can hold the blue states together and get only one or two red states then Bush is history.

[redqueen]

9. Ohhhh, I just had the worst thought

Bush has not released our oil reserves for use, despite being pressured to numerous times.

What if he's holding back till this fall, then decides to provide much needed relief right before the elections?

If the pollster was right about independents, they very well might fall for it.

[Ganja Ninja]

10. He would have to release it now for it to have affect by this summer.

and it might not effect gas prices at all since our refinery capacity is maxed out and we still have a shortage of gasoline.

[redqueen]

11. Didn't know it worked that slowly

I guess that's one trick he won't be using.

Refinery capacity is maxed out by design, you know. Greed... it truly knows no bounds.

[revcarol]

29. He can release it late summer, for "winter heat."

...to appear compassionate.

[SeekerofTruth]

14. Independents usually decide President

40% will always vote for a Democrat, 40% will always vote for a Republican, it's the 20% that make the swing.

Sadly, this election will be decided on how each candidate defines the opponent, not what each candidate brings.

Bush will preach Kerry is:
Weak on National Security
Flip flops
Kerry will preach Bush is:
Destroying the economy, jobs, environment, and workers rights
Insulting the International community

Just my 1/2 cent.

[newyawker99]

15. Hi SeekerofTruth!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Mairead]

16. Which is why it's a brain-dead idea to go after them

And they're a small group, to boot!

Much better to go after the 50% who sit out elections. Of course, that presumes that one has something to offer them besides the usual platitudes and vaporware they've already learnt mean nothing.

Never mind. Back to chasing the wills-o-the-wisps.

[goodhue]

18. You are right on here, Mairead!

Too bad the DNC is into chasing will-o-wisps.

[sangh0]

19. Why aren't the non-voters voting 3rd party?

Isn't there even one party that comes close to representing them?

[redqueen]

20. Many perceive there is no point

Since third-party votes are 'wasted' votes, and neither major party seems the least bit interested in reforming our winner-take-all system, the sentiment among many is 'why bother?'

[sangh0]

22. Why not?

If 50% of the eligible voters aren't voting, those third parties would not be wasted if only they voted.

If a 3rd-party matches their views yet non-voters still feel it's useless to vote, why would voting Dem not also be a waste of a vote?

If matching their views isn't good enough for a 3rd party, why would it be any different for the Dems?

[redqueen]

23. No clue

Have you talked to these people? It's like beating your head against the wall. The fatalism is rampant and very depressing. Even with the past few years (you'd think that'd learn 'em)... there is still so much dissatisfaction, disenfranchisement, and ... dare I say it... outright laziness.

[sangh0]

24. Yes, at one time I was one of them

which is why I don't think changing policies is the way to attract them. I don't think there's anything the party can do to attract them since they don't trust the party or politicians

[Mairead]

28. "why bother"

That and the feeling of isolation. The media tells us that the people who stay home are satisfied with whatever they get, but in my tiny effort at research, I get the exact opposite: they're dissatisfied as hell, but have bought into the media lies and lost hope.

It'll be a long time before I forget the reaction of that grocery clerk to my DK handout. The way her attention suddenly sharpened and her attitude went from polite impartiality to relief that I was going to let her keep the handout. She clearly hadn't been expecting to hear about someone who spoke to her needs in a clear and believable way!

[cheezus]

17. A reminder to support public radio

If you enjoy NPR programming be sure to donate to your local public radio station.

[redqueen]

21. Amen

I dislike the increasing corporate voice there since the republicans cut funding, but as with the GE, it's a choice between good and nothing. Better isn't on the table.

[Mairead]

25. I think NPR has dropped well below 'good', RQ. Ugh.

Even 12-15 years ago I couldn't bear to listen to the corporatist 'Marketplace'. It would come on during my commute and off would go the radio! And then about 10 years ago I stopped being willing to listen to any newscast at all on NPR because they so obviously pandered to the corporatocracy. Their idea of 'far left' was Clinton! I felt viscerally repelled by them.

[redqueen]

26. It's tough, I know

Mara Liasson in particular drives me up the wall. But there is no other source for things like Bill Moyers NOW and Frontline.

I wish we had a real public broadcasting company like the UK does. :(

[Padraig18]

27. ABC News reported last night...

... that in their poll/analysis, Independents were breaking 53-36 for the Democrats, which encouraged me enormously. :)

[mot78]

30. In other words, he was talking about the Sheeple