Election Projection - Kerry ahead by ~3%, 44 EV

[Mattforclark]

http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Current Projected Tally:
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Electoral Votes: Bush 247, Kerry 291
Popular Vote: Bush 48.07%, Kerry 50.93%



Seems pretty accurate to me. I would take issue with WV being solid R, maybe with Ohio leaning R, and TN leaning while LA is solid. Other than that, with maybe a few minor changes, it looks good to me!

The person is right leaning, but the projections seem to be reasonably unbiased, although I think they are based a bit too much on the 2000 results.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. Very encouraging

Especially considering I think we can take Ohio and Arizona too. And if we can get Roy Moore to run, we can DEFINITELY take Arizona. The votes Bush has there are from the hard-core religious folk, and Moore would steal a lot of those.

[Mattforclark]

2. good news deserves a kick

[mobuto]

3. Arizona and Arkansas

I'd say both are very much tossups. I don't think Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Oregon are solid Dem, although they certainly are leaning that way. I agree about WV - if anything its leaning slighly Dem.

[Mattforclark]

4. I read that 60% of WV voters are registered Dems

If so, how can we possibly lose WV? How did Gore lose WV? Guns are really that important??? DUKAKIS won WV by 5%, for crying out loud.

[mobuto]

5. Yes, guns are important

but more importantly WV has been badly hurt by the closing of mines, which many West Virginians (wrongly) blamed on Clinton Administration environmental policies. Gore didn't spend any effort to counteract that misperception, and West Virginia voted a vote of protest. I suspect they'll go for Kerry.

[Thrill]

6. WV is

ours this time.