Electoral College break down, state by state polls. It looks good guys.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

Kerry is in much better shape than any dem or the generic dem just a few months ago.
Breakdown
1. GA gave us an ass kicking in 2000 and 2002. However, Bush is leading in GA only 3%, after a double digit Bush win. It might be in play (total suprise to me).
2. AR has no polling data but should be winnable. It voted for Clinton twice and is fairly progressive for a southern state. TN and MO have small single digit Bush leads after being won by Clinton and then Bush. They are winnable.
3. OH HAD a large Bush lead as of september of 2003, along with most of the rest of the country. A current poll would almost certainly show a massive dem (Kerry) pickup. It voted for Clinton twice, almost voted for Gore, and is in a region of mostly dem states.
4. WV has no polling data, but Clinton and even Dukakis won it, Gore came close. It has dem dominated govt and is really more of a NE state than a southern state. (It splintered off from VA and and Confederacy during the Civil War and joined the Union.)We will have to fight, and Kerry has to respond when Bush paints him as wanting to take away everyone's guns and hostile to their coal industry for enviornmental reasons, but it should be VERY winnable.
5. FL is highly competative. However, the most recent poll on this site has Kerry ahead 2% and a more recent poll had him ahead 6% (even factoring Nader in with 3%). Bush is not polling very nicely in terms of approval or on the issues here.
6. Bush is barely ahead in NV, and has lost steam (after winning it 4%) It is, suprisingly enough, in play.
7. NH voted Clinton twice but not Gore. It is conservative for the NE, but then, it IS in the NE. Kerry is leading.
8. AZ voted for Clinton once and Bush in 2000. Kerry is ahead here.
9. LA as of several months ago had Bush far ahead. As it is southern, there is no guarentee what it will do when polled again, but I think it is going to be in play. It voted for Clinton twice, and has total dem dominated govt.
10. PA is slight Kerry. In OR there is no polling data. The rest are Gore states in which Bush has an uphill battle.
Conclusion
1. The website, writen by a republican, has solid Kerry states being 174 votes, solid Bush 227 Votes, and Swing being 137. The good thing about the swing states is that they ALL voted Clinton and half Gore in 2000. The following states, not all listed as battleground by this website's GOP author (I found this link off freeperville), are in play: GA, TN, OH, MO, AR, WV, FL, NV, NH and AZ, for a total of 114 votes. Clinton won them all, Gore won none.
2. Kerry is holding on to ALL Gore states except NJ, which had its last poll on 1/11/04, before IA and before the dems made major pickups nationwide. It voted dem in the last 3 elections, has dem dominated govt, and should be fairly easy to win.
3. If Kerry holds all Gore states, which is very possible, he only needs, after redistricting, 10 more votes. Any state of 5 or more votes, which is almost all of the above Bush states that are in play, out of the 114 total, gives Kerry the election. I suggest fighting for THEM ALL. There is no guarentee we will win ALL Gore states. If we lose OR alone, for example, we will need to make up their 7 lost votes. Out of 114 in play that should be doable.

[lancdem]

1. Thanks for the analysis

We will win N.J. in 2004, BTW. I also think Kerry has a very good shot at Ohio, and if he wins there, he wins in an electoral landslide.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

4. MO (11 votes) AZ (10) OH (20) and FL (27)

Are all the places we are most likely to make the most gains. Losing even OR and NM, but winning FL or OH and maybe NH would mean a win.

[sandnsea]

9. We won't lose OR

It was close because of Green voters. Environmental voters. We won't lose so many of them this time, Kerry is better on the environment than even Gore was. And Oregon is economically in serious trouble. We've got to get Bush out and I think most people around here know it. So many issues and Bush's policies hurt us on most of them.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

13. OR is likely to go dem again

However, it would be one of the first and probably only Gore states with any real possibility of barely going the other way, along with NM. I don't see any NE states, except MAYBE NH with ANY possibility of voting for Bush, nor WA, CA, IL, WI and to a lesser extent MI and MN. PA will likely go dem as well. WI, IL, MI and PA were one of the few bright spots for us in 2002. The steel Tariffs thing was meant to appeal to this region but backfired. This entire area is shifting more and more to the dems. People here are center/center-left and always have been.

[sandnsea]

23. I live in Oregon

I don't know what the situation on the ground is in NM, that's why I can't say how the Greens are feeling there. But the issues that environmentalists care about in Oregon are things Kerry will address. There won't be a big Green vote in Oregon this year. It's going Dem.

[Gore1FL]

37. NV is a good possible pickup

he broke his promise to them over Yucca Mt. Not a olot of people want a national nuclear waste dump in their backyard.

[rockymountaindem]

2. I agree that we will win NJ.

The Democrats just took back the state legislature there in 2003. We can hold NJ. If everyplace else stays in our column we'll do ok. I think we can really kick his ass. If GA is a tossup, we can take Bush* down anyplace else except for Colorado, Utah and Idaho.

[robsul82]

3. Jersey bleeds blue.

WTF are you saying otherwise? LOL

Later.

RJS

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

6. that NJ poll was taken before the caucuses when Dean was ahead

Most states were Bush states back then. Even MA was a Bush state once (just barely) in early 2003. THANK GOD that if 911 had to happen, it happened when it did and not 9/11/03 or 9/11/04.

[Doomsayer13]

5. for a freeper, he's surprisingly not that biased

but NJ isn't going Repub, no way no how.

For NV to be so close gives me hope that we can win there. State Democrats will need to play up Bush's Yucca Mtn. Lie, that will help us a lot.

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

7. yes doesn't bush want to store nuke waste in NV? HMMMMM

5 votes could mean Bush is laid off on jan 20. The most recent poll showed NV for Bush by only 1%. It is worth fighting for.

[Mattforclark]

15. Nevada has something like 20,000 migrated Democrats

according to the demographics article that was floating around earlier today. I think Bush took it by 20,000 last time. Assuming that it's not a nationwide blowout, Nevada is definitely very competitive. And we need to milk Yucca. We need some good old fashioned scare-mongering about nuclear waste.

[politick]

19. Fastest growing state

in the country, with LOTS of transplants from out east. This could have a significant effect if NV becomes an important factor.

[jfxgillis]

8. Dale's a freeper but a good guy ....

... and he and the regulars on that thread welcomed me there in 2000 even as an avowed and open Gore supporter. SOME of the occasional posters on the thread are regulation loonies, but Dales and a couple of others stood up for me forthrightly if my non-orthodoxy was attacked.

BTW, the regulars all respect me because when it was Bush by 10 points with 5 weeks to go in 2000 I said it looked to me like the thing was closing to DEAD HEAT, to which they hooted me down and claimed I was dreaming. LAUGH. I sure showed them, huh?

He's discussed NJ a couple of times. He reserves the right to input his own intuition/expectations to a small degree, especially if a state is trending where he thinks it's going, but all his '03 New Jersey polls show a Bush lead and it just happens not to have updated. I disagree with his policy there, but it's defensible. When the numbers move, he'll move NJ where it belongs.

[robsul82]

10. The State of Springsteen will not go Republican. Ever.

That voting Republican before, that was PRE-Boss. This is POST-Boss, or STILL-Boss, lol. When the poet laureate of the state is Bruce Springsteen, Republicans will not win.

Later.

RJS

[Arugula Latte]

11. My hunch on Oregon

I can't imagine that pathetic excuse for a "president" winning Oregon. Nader got a big chunk of the votes last time, but I think Nader voters will reconsider their strategy this time. Multnomah County (Portland) and Eugene can outvote the rural parts of the state. People here(Portland) fucking HATE Bush. While that is not a surprise, I think they are energized enough to get out the vote and swamp the conservative vote. That is just my gut, however.

[sandnsea]

24. I'm in Florence

People are sick to death of Bush here too, and alot of these people voted for him. We're dying over here on the coast. Tourism in the toilet. Ports not being dredged. The salmon. I don't see this state going for Bush at all.

[tedoll78]

12. My map..

I have all of the Gore states as secure, with a few exceptions that need to be nurtured by our candidate: OR/NM/IA/MN/PA

Those five need to be cared-for closely. Blunt Nader's effect, visit them often, and have a great GOTV effort ready for each.

Then there are a number of states won by Bush in 2000 that seem to be ripe for the picking: OH/FL/NV/AZ.

Meanwhile, there are a few states that we need to fake a campaign in so that we can draw Bush into spending time and money defending them from us: LA/AR/MO/TN/NC. Make him part with some cash in these states!

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

14. I do think we have a chance in LA/AR/MO/TN but not NC

with or without edwards. we are behind slightly in MO and TN and LA and AR don't have any recent polls. They ARE winnable. We, however, are starting in SUCH a better place than we were just a few months ago. A few months ago this kind of analysis would have shown a Bush landslide. It was only after the IA causes that things equilibrated to their 2000 levels and all traces of 911 vanished.

[tedoll78]

17. I largely agree/

It'd take some work, but we can win those states.

And it's like night and day with these poll numbers.. they're brilliant!

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

32. thank you john kerry and terry mccaullife for that!

Mccaullife front loaded the calander which helped kerry enormously, and scheduled TONS of news making Bush-bashing debates with no conservative response. Kerry was brilliant once he won IA. And they both were increadible with the Bush service thing. It was wise to make it an issue when they did. Had they made it an issue in october, it would have seemed partison like the DWI thing in 2000. And it, among other things, put Bush on the defensive for weeks and knocked him off balance just as the election grabed national attention.

[Mattforclark]

16. If we are worried about Oregon, we should be worried about Wisconsin

Gore only took it by a few points. Admittedly, there was a Nader vote, but there was in Oregon too. And there are probably minor negative demographic trends.

[mot78]

18. Gore only won Oregon by less than 1% but Nader got about 6%

We could win Oregon by 5-6% this time. Wisconsin had similar returns in 2000.

[NewJerseyDem]

20. NJ should be safe

The state has move solidly to the democratic party in recent years and should be fine. However, for some reason the polls recently aren't showing this. A month or so ago Gallup had NJ as one of 4 states, along with WA, ME and somewhere else, as states that their poll showed as a tossup states while the others had voters identify with the republicans or with the democrats. Plus, Bush did well in past polls. I don't know why but I assume that whenever the next poll comes out, which should be soon (polls are pretty often done by Rutgers/Eagleton and Quinnipiac in NJ) I predict Kerry will lead comfortably.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

21. Lets put it this way: eight states that we are NOT going to win:

NC/SC/GA/AL/MS/TX/UT/ID

All others are in play.

[Leilani]

36. I disagree

Wyoming, Montana, are safe Repub states;

North & South Dakota are always Repub in national elections, but I don't know enough this year to be sure.

I don't think Virginia is likely.

Alaska, Colorado will probabably go Repub.

Kansas & Indiana are Rpub.

So is Oklahoma.

[roguevalley]

38. I don't think you can predict alaska this time. We HATE the Murkowskis

and Tony Knowles is running for Lisa's job. Murkowski has screwed the state and the repugs in the legislature are playing games with education funding. Count in the loss of Longevity bonuses for the old, slamming of Indian country by the repugs rousing the native population and unrest over hunting and the permanent fund and I think you can't figure it out with a ouiji board.

[WiseMen]

22. Thanks. Very usefull.

[Poiuyt]

25. Here are two more survey sites:

http://www.censeoresearch.com/2004pres.htm

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php

[mot78]

26. These don't seem accurate

NJ is listed as "tossup" on the first site, and West WA is listed as "Rep" meaning as safe state for Repugs.

[Poiuyt]

27. I guess all these sites will be inaccurate

and out of date for a while. Everything will be in flux until after both conventions.

[Stuckinthebush]

42. The first one is mine...

I have collected polling information from state polls I could find, and then show them as tossup if the MOE allows overlap between candidates.

If a state does not have recent polling data that I could find, then I gave that state to the 2000 winner. Obviously, these data will change over time, but they are based on what I can find out there that looks to be valid polling.

I'll update it this week because there are more state polls available now that Kerry is the probable nominee.

[IndianaGreen]

28. Kerry could take Indiana--he is only 6% behind Bush

Background: This is a Republican state. While LBJ did beat Goldwater, you have to go back to Franklin Roosevelt's second election to find another instance of the Democrats carrying the state. With significant help from Perot, Clinton twice got within 6-7%, but beyond that the closest it has been is when Carter was within 8% of Ford.

http://home.comcast.net/~gerrydal/

Governor Kernan is running against Mitch Daniels, and he is leading in the polls. We could use some help from the national Democrats!

[mot78]

29. Indiana going blue would be awesome

So much for the "red Midwest". The Midwest will be bluer than NY and CA combined!

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

35. I strongly question if IN would be worth fighting for

One poll doesn't outset IN not voting for either Clinton or Gore, or being very close any of the three times. Also even the dems from IN are conservative (think Evan Bayh). Resources would be MUCH more wisely spent in OH and PA and NOT in IN.

[IndianaGreen]

40. Evan Bayh became very Zell Miller-like when he moved to the Senate

Bayh has offended many of his former supporters.

Bayh is now outside the mainstream of Indiana Democrats.

However, we need some help if we want to prevent Mitch Daniels from becoming Governor. Someone like John Edwards, if he is the VP choice, could really resonate out here and force the GOP to spend some money in Indiana that they would rather spend elsewhere.

[Dob Bole]

30. Southwest Georgia bleeds BLUE

We sent a certain President Carter to the White House. Now a certain Sanford Bishop is my congressman. Now if we can just get our Atlanta friends to turn out and help us, Kerry will win Georgia, just as Clinton did.

Go Kerry go! (and Max Cleland too)

On Edit: Piece of Trivia- there are more people in Atlanta than the entire state of Alabama. And the mayor is a very liberal Democrat.

[The Spirit of JFK]

31. The chickens are still chicks...put the egg counter away

Not even gonna muse over these details. They get our hopes up and make us lazy. And there is way too much time between now and then.

But there ARE things we can really take from this as positive and hopeful.

• Bush will need to spend more of his money on campaigning especially in the south. It's too close for him not to. So that $100+ million war chest will be spent less on ads, although the quality is sure to be worse per ad now. But I think after these 9/11 ads, all of his ads will be under a little closer scrutiny. If the ads get too negative, I really think it will turn off more people this time. And I think Bush is gonna get desperate and nasty.

• Bush will need to spend more of his TIME campaigning. While he IS good one on one, he is NOT too great when unscripted. I see fodder.

• There WILL be debates. Again, the Republicans will be counting on Bush's "charm" and sound bites to carry the day against a "stodgy" Kerry. This IS a possibility, obviously, but I have seen Kerry debate. While he IS smart, it comes off more as humble experience and Kerry is very to the point. He's like a shark that gives you a drink and smiles as he bites you....and you don't even know you have been bitten. He made Bill Weld look bad in the 1996 MA Senate debate...and Weld was a really personable, media savvy, and somewhat social progressive masquerading in Republican clothing. I think Kerry can handle Bush in any debate and not make the same mistakes Gore made.

As long as the Democrats can stay together, get a cohesive message out, stay aggressive, and pick Bushes record apart...but it's a long way to go.

STAY FOCUSED.

[newyawker99]

41. Hi The Spirit of JFK!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[CRYINGWOLFOWITZ]

33. GOOD NEWS!!!! since I posted this we have had pickups!

the author has put FL in the slight dem catagory, and, even more important, discovered a poll putting Kerry up 5% in OR, even with Nader at 5%. I will post the link to the main DU board.

[DaveSZ]

34. Yes

I saw on CNN that Kerry was leading in Florida!!!!!!

We need to do a good job of fighting the Republican smear machine.

[BruinAlum]

39. What do you mean you will post the link to the main DU board??

:shrug:

[BabsSong]

43. I got excited when I realized we only need to add one state

Saw the election map other day. If we can keep the ones we won in 2000 and add only Ohio or only Missouri, etc., we have the election. There's a lot of pain the midwest. I think we will keep our states and have a great chance of adding to it out there.