Details on upcoming primaries (open, closed, etc)

[Alhena]

Texas has an open primary on March 4, so Independents and Republicans will be able to vote in it.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/TX-D.phtml

You have to think this favors Obama making up some ground, since he has done better in all the open primaries so far, and one would expect even more crossover votes since the Democratic race will likely be the only competitive one.

But Texas is a little different- they have a hybrid primary/caucus system as you can see at the above link. The open primary will select 126 of the delegates, while a state convention on June 6 will select the remaining 67 delegates. I also think this favors Obama, since it basically means that the March 4 primary- where he trails Hillary - will be less influential. If he can win in other states, then that will give him momentum to make a strong play for the caucus voters on June 6.

Bottom line- Texas has a lot of delegates, but only 126 of them will be up for grabs on March 4, and Obama can hope for crossover votes from Republicans and Independents.

[Alhena]

1. Ohio has a semi-open primary ...

Independents can vote in the Ohio primary, though Republicans can not.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/OH-D.phtml

The fact that independents can vote in Ohio has to favor Obama.

[Alhena]

2. Virginia has an open primary ....

Virignia is like Texas- an open primary in March and a party caucus in June.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/VA-D.phtml

Virginia is 20% African-American.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia

[debatepro]

3. obama will need some endorsements ... Henry Cuellar

For example, Bill Clinton came to san antonio for a special election for Ciro Rodriguez. You have to think Ciro Rodriguez owes the clintons.... to counter this obama probably could use an endorsement from Henry Cuellar... who beat Ciro Rodriguez more than once head to head... but he should try to get Ciro also... he has a pretty commited ground game... in the san antonio area...
Obama should make pitch to Ciro based on his role on Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee. Veterans' affairs is at the core of Ciro's agenda.

[Alhena]

4. Maryland has a closed primary ...

Maryland has a closed primary, which would be good for Hillary, except Maryland is 29% African-American so you have to assume that a large percentage of the registered Democrats there are black.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/MD-D.phtml

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maryland

[Recursion]

10. Has Kennedy-Townsend endorsed?

That could have a big influence.

[JaneQPublic]

13. KKT, O'Malley, & Mikulski have all endorsed HRC

But I doubt endorsements will be as big a factor as the A-A population. Seriously, if KKT was all that influential in Maryland, she wouldn't have lost her bid for governor.

[Alhena]

5. Washington State has a modified caucus ...

Washington State has a caucus where independents are allowed to participate.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/WA-D.phtml

I know I'm sounding like a Obama partisan, but once again I think this is favorable to him since he does well in caucuses and with independent voters.

[Alhena]

6. Pennsylvania has a closed primary

This is the first major remaining state I've seen whose primary appears favorable for Hillary.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/PA-D.phtml

[Alhena]

7. Oregon has a closed primary ...

once again, favorable to Hillary, though the primary isn't until May 20, so Oregon's influence will be reduced.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/OR-D.phtml

[Alhena]

8. Nebraska has a modified caucus ...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/NE-D.phtml

good for Obama.

[ElsewheresDaughter]

9. do you mean "semi open primary" that allows ONLY indepedents?

[Alhena]

11. Louisiana has a closed primary ...

Louisiana has a closed primary, but, as is the case with Maryland, you have to expect that a large percentage of the registered Democrats there are African-American.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/LA-D.phtml

[Alhena]

12. Mississippi has an open primary ...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/MS-D.phtml

I think it would be better for Obama if the primary were closed, but with the largest African-American percentage of population of any state, this state seems secure for Obama.

[Alhena]

14. Maine has a closed caucus ....

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/ME-D.phtml

This seems like a split- Obama has to like the caucus format, but Hillary has to like it being closed. OTOH, Iowa was a closed caucus as well and that didn't work out well for her.

[Alhena]

15. Wisconsin has an open primary ...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/WI-D.phtml

good for Obama, especially with the proximity of Wisconsin to his home base of Chicago.

[AGirl]

16. The hillary haters might vote for or against HIllary in Texas.

[Alhena]

17. Indiana has a modified primary ...

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/IN-D.phtml

[Alhena]

18. Texas has an open primary

Texas has an open primary on March 4, so Independents and Republicans will be able to vote in it.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P08/TX-D.phtml

You have to think this favors Obama making up some ground, since he has done better in all the open primaries so far, and one would expect even more crossover votes since the Democratic race will likely be the only competitive one.

But Texas is a little different- they have a hybrid primary/caucus system as you can see at the above link. The open primary will select 126 of the delegates, while a state convention on June 6 will select the remaining 67 delegates. I also think this favors Obama, since it basically means that the March 4 primary- where he trails Hillary - will be less influential. If he can win in other states, then that will give him momentum to make a strong play for the caucus voters on June 6.

Bottom line- Texas has a lot of delegates, but only 126 of them will be up for grabs on March 4, and Obama can hope for crossover votes from Republicans and Independents.

[Alhena]

19. Here's the summary ...

Sat. Feb. 9

Louisiana - closed primary
Washington State - caucus open to independents
Nebraska - caucus open to independents

Sun. Feb. 10

Maine - closed caucus

Tues. Feb. 12

Maryland - closed primary
Virginia - primary open to all (even Republicans)
District of Columbia - closed caucus

Tues. Feb. 19

Hawaii - closed caucus
Wisconsin - primary open to all (even Republicans)

Tues. March 4

Ohio - primary open to independents
Rhode Island - primary open to independents
Texas - primary open to all (even Republicans)
Vermont - primary open to all (even Republicans)

Sat. March 8

Wyoming - closed caucus

Tues. March 11

Mississippi - primary open to all (even Republicans)

Tues. April 22

Pennsylvania - closed primary

Tues. May 6

Indiana - primary open to independents
North Carolina - primary open to independents

Tues. May 13

West Virginia - primary open to independents

Tues. May 20

Kentucky - closed primary
Oregon - closed primary

Tues. June 3

Montana - primary open to all (even Republicans)
South Dakota - closed primary

[Bucky]

20. Texas is an open primary, but damn few Republicans will cross over to vote in it

They'll have their own primary to tussel with.

[Alhena]

21. I doubt they will care if McCain has it locked up

that's why McCain's commanding lead is good for Obama- Republicans in open primary states may get bored with their race and decide that the Democratic race is where the action is.

[jacksonian]

22. and that's good for Dems, right?

can't believe you're cheering on people who will never vote for the Dem in the GE. Only the win the nomination at all costs no matter what group can like this.