New FL Poll: Kerry leading Bush 49 to 43, yes in Florida!!!!

[ringmastery]

http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/8125717.htm

While Kerry secured the nomination only days ago, he holds a 49 to 43 percent lead over a president who just four months ago led every potential Democratic challenger by as many as 18 percentage points.

Still, the results could merely reflect a high point for Kerry, coming after weeks of positive publicity associated with his string of primary victories and just as Bush begins a massive TV ad campaign in Florida and other battleground states specifically aimed at bolstering his image on the economy and security.

In a worrisome sign for Democrats, consumer advocate Ralph Nader continues to win enough support -- 3 percent -- to swing the election, as many believe he did in 2000 by winning 90,000 votes in Florida.

''This poll clearly demonstrates that the state which gave us drama and nail-biting in 2000 may prove no different in 2004,'' said Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, who conducted the survey for the two newspapers with Democratic pollster Rob Schroth.

http://www.stpetetimes.com/2004/03/07/State/Another_presidential_.shtml

Buckle up for another potential photo finish presidential race in Florida.

Democrat John Kerry leads President Bush by 6 percentage points in the Sunshine State, whose 27 electoral votes are crucial to the president's re-election, a St. Petersburg Times/Miami Herald poll shows.

Eight months before the election, Florida voters are widely skeptical of Bush's handling of the economy, the war in Iraq and the overall direction of the country. With the general election race effectively under way, fewer than half of Florida voters approve of the president's overall performance.

"Florida is in play," said pollster Kellyanne Conway. "This poll clearly demonstrates that the state that gave us drama and nail-biting in 2000 is proving no differently in 2004."

If the election were held today, 49 percent would vote for Massachusetts Sen. Kerry, 43 percent for Bush, and 3 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader. Only 5 percent were undecided in a state that remains starkly polarized politically.

[NEOBuckeye]

1. Don't break out the champaigne just yet.

We've still got nearly 8 months to go. And with Jeb in charge, anything is still possible.

[ringmastery]

2. you're right

but I'm sick and tired of people on DU who say Florida isn't winnable.

It is winnable and we'll be fools not to fight for these 27 electoral votes.

[Renew Deal]

3. I'd say 40 states are winnable

And the other 10 are in play if we do things right.

[Lauren2882]

10. I like the way you think! n/t

[Bombtrack]

4. Just one more indicator of why Kerry should chose Graham

If we win Florida, we can still afford to lose a blue swingstate and win

[ringmastery]

5. Actually if you read the article Graham doesn't help much.

While some strategists argue that Kerry's chances of winning Florida's 27 electoral votes would be helped if he names the state's retiring senior senator, Bob Graham, as his running mate, the poll suggests that Graham offers no particular benefit.

A Kerry-Graham ticket leads Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney 49 to 44 percent, the same margin as a Kerry-Edwards team. A ticket that includes Florida's junior senator, Bill Nelson, leads Bush-Cheney by only 2 percentage points.

[ochazuke]

6. REAL-lee

I thought that Graham was like the most popular politician in recent Florida history. It's a surprise that a Kerry Edwards ticket does just as well.

[ringmastery]

7. there might be graham fatigue

He's 67, getting older, floridans aren't blind to those facts, also florida has had explosive population growth the last decade.

Many new residents to the state might not know him that well. He's kept a low profile in the senate and hasn't been governor for almost 20 years.

[delhurgo]

8. This just makes the VP decision that much more difficult.

Does he try for Florida and pick Graham or Nelson, or does he look to the midwest, industrial states and choose someone like Gephardt or Bayh? This is gonna be a HUGE decision. If he wins Florida tho, he wins the election for sure - thats pretty hard to resist.

[DieboldMustDie]

9. If Bill Nelson were elected vice president...

he would, of course, have to give up his senate seat, and that would mean Jeb gets to appoint his successor. Do you really want that? It will bad enough being stuck with a Republican from Massachusetts appointed by Mitt Romney.

[delhurgo]

11. Yeah, thats a good point. You really would hate to have to give...

...up another senate seat. I'm not sure who is Gov of Indiana, but it might be the case there too. It is complicated. Graham and Gephardt are both free, so maybe they would make more logical choices. I just kinda like the idea of a 'war hero' and an 'astronaut' as a ticket. You can't get more American than that.

[MidwestTransplant]

12. Kathryn Harris

[arcos]

13. OMG... that automatically rules Nelson out! n/t

[fujiyama]

14. This looks more like it!

Nader at 5-6% in a FL seemed ridiculously high.

This seems more accurate, but as the other poster said, we have a looooong way to go.

[59millionmorons]

15. What makes this poll just lovely is

it was done by a wingnut like Kellyanne Conway.

[Zech Marquis]

16. with this week's primary

I can see Kerry really setting up operations in TX and Florida--of course he'll win Tuesday, this will get his campaign into the minds of the voters who want a change. Sure it's early, but the idea of beating the BFEE in their own backyard--I say let's get started :bounce:

[bushisanidiot]

17. Jeb Will Deliver FLA, and if it's close, the repuke supreme court will

re-install him. i don't know why we even bother spending campaign $$ in FLA.