What states can Kerry take?

[coloradodem2005]

Now that Kerry is the nominee I would like to say my piece on states he will take.

He will get New England. Including New Hampshire.
He will take the midwest except for Indiana (Though he needs to go after West Virginia a little more vigorously).
He will get the West Coast states.
He will get Hawaii.
He will take New Mexico and Nevada, maybe even Arizona, Colorado if he is lucky.
He could cut into the southern states a little and potentially take Florida and Louisiana.
The rest I would write off if I were him.

Your thoughts.

[Feanorcurufinwe]

1. Why is Indiana out of reach?

[coloradodem2005]

3. Indiana is really conservative.

In 1992 and 1996 when every other midwestern state surrounding it went to Clinton, Indiana was red both times. It is kinda wierd but that is my experience with it.

[salin]

42. notorious ticket splitters - but predominantly red at the presidential

level.

We have had 16 years of democratic governors. Split Democrat/Republican senators. More republican congressman than dems (though for a good number of years the delegation was 5 rs and 4 ds.

But at the top of the ticket. Solid Red.

There have been three fundraisers in Indy for Bush (ostensibly selling "My Man Mitch" for governor.) Big attendance.

Folks pitching Bayh as a VP do not get that while Bayh is safe - he is NOT more popular than Bush and wouldn't be likely to swing the state (on the pres level we are not a swing state.)

Yet - we have pockets of progressivism through out the state. We do not follow the 'rustbelt' voting trends of our neighbors Michigan, Illinois and Ohio (though in recent years Ohio has been diverging from Ill and Mich.), nor of the 'cornbelt' (other industrial midwestern states such as Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri, Kansas.

[wuushew]

5. Last time Indiana went blue was 1964

Also look at all the other elections of the 20th century.

Indiana voted for the corrupt Republicans in the 20's against FDR in 40 and 44 and went puke every election accept LBJ in 64.

What would cause the state to become competitive given its history?

[codegreen]

2. every one of them?

[Feanorcurufinwe]

4. That's how I feel about it

I don't care if I have to personally register every unregistered voter, schmooze with every swing voter, and drive every vehicle-less Democrat in Montana to the polls -- we are taking Montana!

[lastknowngood]

6. New York and Mass. That's about it

n/t

[coloradodem2005]

7. Right. That is why people came out in droves to vote in primaries...

...in all these states that Kerry won.

[Octafish]

16. Colorado, does JK have a chance?

Your state has provided some great Democrats, coloradodem2004! Pat Schoeder, Gary Hart, Sterling Sharpe... Does Kerry have a chance to take CO?

[BruinAlum]

12. Now that's ridiculous

:eyes:

[DoNotRefill]

18. Care to wager on that?

Unfortunately, Kerry's most likely going to be BOTH Gored and Dukakisized.

It's going to be a bloodbath, unless Bush does something REALLY stupid. I don't see Bush's handlers letting him. Hell, the Death Penalty alone is enough to bury Kerry if they make it an issue, before you throw in things like the gun issue.

On the positive side, it puts Hillary in a good position for 2008...

[BruinAlum]

19. Give me a break! Bush is not going to win 48 states! That is ridiculous!

Sure, that's a sucker bet. Bookmark it and meet me back here on Nov 3rd. All I need are 3 blue states to win.

:eyes:

[Kathy in Cambridge]

27. That's just crap

there's enough loss of jobs in many of the swing states-Ohio comes to mind-to put a nail in Bush's coffin.

The rednecks who worry about owning assault rifles over their job security are just fucked up individuals. I'm all for gun ownership, but I think the country is in dire enough straits that most gun owners with half a brain will put the country's economic demise over their ability to own weapons that are used in combat.

[shivaji]

36. Unless Kerry has a viable solution to outsourcing of jobs,

he won't gain on that issue. If he proposes restricting
free trade, every economist worth his salt will speak out
against it. It is one thing to say loss of jobs to other
cheaper labor countries is bad, another to stop it. If Kerry
proposes hiking taxes on the outsourcing companies, it will
result in their going bankrupt from other foreign companies
producing the same product.

[R3dD0g]

39. Please explain to us why

Kerry has to present a viable plan to stop the export of jobs, while the unelected draft dodging drunk can be reelected by presiding over that same exportation?

[DoNotRefill]

41. because....

if Kerry doesn't offer a plan, people will see him as no better than Bush on that issue, and other issues will come into play. Kerry is both anti death penalty and anti gun. Many at DU are against the death penalty, and most are against guns, but DU isn't the population at large. there are a LOT of people who support the death penalty, and a lot of people who are pro-gun. The pro-gunners tend to be single issue voters, so they weild a disproportionate amount of political clout.

If we're going to win the election, we need to present a clear-cut difference between Bush and Kerry. The economy could be our strongest issue. But just saying "Bush fucked it up" isn't going to be enough to win.

[DoNotRefill]

43. Uh huh....

Let's look at Ohio. There's a large blue-collar union presence there, the same people who should be one of our core constituencies. The unfortunate truth of the matter is that those people also tend to be pro-gun. Look at what happened with Gore, and how he lost Ohio. These are people who should be consistently voting Democratic, but end up voting Republican because we insist on being stupid and attacking their sacred cows.

BTW, your referring to them as rednecks is sure to win their hearts and minds (and votes, too).

[Kathy in Cambridge]

57. Rednecks: if the shoe fits...

one can only hope that they're more worried about their jobs than their guns. What would you say to gay rights? Roe v Wade activists? Most of them can see the danger of 4 more years of Bush.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

24. Ummm-that's why there was record turnout in Blue States for the primaries?

Once again, you're showing us your true intentions here.

:eyes:

[Lefty48197]

8. If he wins Ohio, he wins the big enchilada

and it looks like we are going to have a real shot at Ohio this time.

[Octafish]

9. What Lefty in Ypsi said. PLUS, Kerry takes Michigan.

And a whole lot of the Great Lakes states: Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Pennsylvania, New York...

That's just the Midwest. Where else does Kerry have a chance?

In all honesty, every state except Texas.

If the media weren't controlled by the BFEE, Kerry'd take that too.

[bj_liberal22]

10. I think Ohio is the key this year - Florida

While Ohio needs focus, so does retaining Gore 2000 states.

In the south, the most realistic state is Florida. Its the least conservative of all the states, plus Nader got a whopping 110,000 votes - or in that range. That's enough liberal base if we can keep the Nader influence down in 2004.

But here is an interesting map that shows some real recent trends.. Back to 1988.

http://www.4president.org/ec2004.htm

[Monte Carlo]

11. I think he stands a good chance at bagging Missouri and Ohio...

... if he applies himself properly. Bush has done (or not done) much to rattle his popular support; it is loose, and maybe Kerry can capture enough of it in the two states to win them. Both are famed swing states with considerable populations and considerable electoral votes. We will see.

[DoNotRefill]

13. He's going to do poorly...

in rural States, the South, and anyplace with a high percentage of gun ownership. He has only himself to blame. West Virginia is a writeoff. I don't see him taking Arizona or Nevada.

From my perspective, his only hope is if Bush does something that is a truly spectacular fuckup right before the election.

[doc03]

32. Unfortunately I think your right!

[mot78]

14. Here are the regions Kerry will take

He'll keep NY and the Northeast, and likely pick up New Hampshire (relative favorite son status could help him also. Pennsylvania and Maine are staying blue.

He'll win every Midwestern state except Indiania like you said. Ohio and Missouri are definately in play this year.

He'll win the "Left Coast" again this year, despite some saying Washington, Oregon, and California are swing states (CA is always considered to be in play by pundits, which is bullshit.) Also, Nader, hopeuflly won't be as much of a factor this year, so Kerry could win Oregon and Washington by more comfortable leads.

He might carry one or two Southern states, he chooses the right Veep . Besides Florida, he could carry West Virginia, Arkansas, Louisiana, and maybe even Tennessee.

Another strategy is to have a "Solid Southwest" which would encompass New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, and maybe Colorado, but Colorado is more of a future blue state than one that will be in reach this year. I'm not sure if we need Richardson on the ticket to do this.

[TomSeaver]

15. Kerry keeps all

blue states. Picks up NH, WV, MO and OH. Depending on his running mate he can take AZ and ARK

[DoNotRefill]

17. The ONLY way he'll take West Va....

is if he picks Robery Byrd as his running mate. There's a tiny chance he'll take Tenn...they like their guns there, and Kerry shot himself in the foot on that issue a couple of days ago by appearing with Schumer, et al after the AW ban vote. If Gore couldn't take Tenn because of the FOID thing, being FROM Tenn, Kerry's not going to take it.

[DaveSZ]

20. Kerry

As mentioned earlier, Kerry probably lost the election some days ago by being pictured with Feinstein, and Schumer. Also in voting for extending the AWB.

You can forget about Tennessee now and many other gun owning states.

[DaveSZ]

22. Well

Perhaps if the economic situation favors Kerry he has a chance to capture some of those key Midwest states.

Also picking Edwards as Veep would help.

I would have prefered Edwards at the top of the ticket, since he's not as easily pigeonholed as Kerry is.

[Dying Eagle]

23. Everyone says.....

Kerry flip-flops, should he have voted to drop the AWB? This shows he does stick to his beliefs.

edit:spell

[DoNotRefill]

44. Voting for it is one thing.....

appearing for photo ops with Schumer, Feinstien, and Kennedy immediately after the vote, while throwing a big "thumbs up" sign to photographers, was Ess-Tee-Eww-Pee-Eye-Dee.

[Dying Eagle]

21. Gun states

I think Kerry will do better then most suspect in gun states. Here in WI he made a clear point about being a sportsman. This is one hunting crazy state.

I think the hunters listened. Many of them in my area are manufacturing, paper mill and construction type, working guys. They got hurt just as bad as everyone else.

I think if Kerry hits home about his being pro-hunting gun he should do OK. How can the NRA attack this:

http://www.johnkerry.com/communities/sportsmen/

[DaveSZ]

25. Doesn't the AWB

Ban AR15s?

As I understand they are used in sport shooting.

I'm a democrat, but I don't like some of the anti-gun policies of the democratic party. Of course I'm not a one issue voter though.

I can understand both sides of the debate quite honestly.

[DaveSZ]

26. About Arizona:

Gore almost won Arizona, and they have a Democratic governor now!

We should try to win that state, and a Southwest strategy makes very much sense.

[noahmijo]

38. Kerry could take Arizona

The key to Arizona's vote is Tucson (where I live) Our very liberal governor (whom supposedly is on the list of possible vp's) won thanks to Tucson. Phoenix is typically conservative however just not by as much as it used to be. Tucson usually votes democrat on a margin of about 4-1.

Arizona from what I understand has always been a swing state. Kerry could take it.

[Dying Eagle]

28. IDK

My boss at work has a AR15, so either they are legal or my boss is a criminal,lol

[Adelante]

29. He could do better than many expect

with gunowners, because of his strong environmental positions. I always think hunters probably realize assault weapons are just different, anyway, but I can't say I know any hunters to ask.

[TomSeaver]

30. I don't buy

him not being able to win WV. Just because he voted like that. Kerry himself is a gun owner and a hunter. He can play that up with ads and stuff in WV. He can win there

[Feanorcurufinwe]

33. When I was collecting signatures this week

to get Kerry on the ballot, I had one guy asking:


"What is he for?"


"umm..." (just which sound-bite answer is the right one? a real answer would obviously take longer than this person wants to spend)

"what about guns?"

"he's a hunter"

"OK, I'll sign"

[DoNotRefill]

47. How many pro-gunners, seeing this picture....

and hearing about the circumstances of the picture, do you think will vote for Kerry?

It's like he's TRYING to alienate large segments of the population...

[Feanorcurufinwe]

59. Most of them.

Most gun owners are not in favor of assault weapons.

If you are ever in western Montana, you are invited to stop by my place for some target practice -- no need to bring your own gun, I have plenty extra.

[DoNotRefill]

46. Unfortunately....

going on a hunting "photo-op" doesn't mean dick when people know how many more infringements Kerry wants to see placed upon the Second Amendment, and when his photo is being splashed all over the place in the company of Schumer, Kennedy, and Feinstein.

Pro-gunners, seeing the page you linked to, will NOT vote for Kerry...because he's pushing HCI's and VPC's agenda.

It's like Bush coming out and saying he's the "peace" candidate. His actions speak louder than his words.

[Zo Zig]

31. the keys to oval office

Florida-*in 00 by 537. I can fit 4 people in my car, @ 135 trips to the voting booths. The folks in Century Villages in South FL will not be screwed again, by T. Lepour or the butterfly ballot, Diebold is another story. Wexler is working on that, dam I'm going to busy that day. Buckle up folks...

OH or MO are the 2nd must haves to win, and win big enough so the repigs don't steal this one.

[RetroLounge]

34. He may not win Wisconsin

The same hunters who vote for gun guys wave more flags and think bush* is the new messiah.

It was close last time, and I think it will be close again.

[tedoll78]

49. I think Kerry might have an edge.

Nader won't be as big a factor.

That, and there's the election down-ticket: Senator Feingold running for re-election. From what I hear, the GOP is having one hell of a time finding a quality candidate. If this is the case for November, the GOP may be demoralized, and their turnout may be dampened a bit by this.

[TruthIsAll]

35. All of these (NC only if Edwards is VP)

Distict of Columbia
California
New York
Illinois
Florida
New Jersey
Pennsylvania
Ohio
North Carolina
Maryland
Michigan
Massachusetts
Missouri
Minnesota
Tennessee
Connecticut
Washington
Louisiana
Nevada
Arizona
Arkansas
Iowa
Wisconsin
Oregon
New Mexico
New Hampshire
Maine
Delaware
West Virginia
Rhode Island
Hawaii
Vermont

[shivaji]

37. Edwards was polling behind in NC in his own senate race.

Kiss off NC and use the money in other competitive states.

[jsw_81]

50. No way does Kerry take Tennessee

Gore couldn't even win Tennessee, and he was from Tennessee. We only get Missouri if Gephardt is on the ticket.

[TruthIsAll]

58. And Clinton won both. Just because we lost them last time...

does not mean we won't win them this time. This is going to be a Democratic landslide. MO and TN will go Dem if Kerry gets over 52% of the popular vote - and he will, easily. Check your prior election stats.

In TN and MO there was massive black voter fraud and disenfranchisement and early poll closings.

[R3dD0g]

40. Arkansas n/t

[ButterflyBlood]

45. my map

although this site uses reversed colors, Kerry red, Bush blue:

http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/pred04.php?action=indpred&id=1117

[JCMach1]

55. 305 Kerry 233 Bush

Key states to Kerry:

Florida
Oklahoma (terrible economy and Clark on the ticket, and a powerful Sen. race give it to Kerry)
Arkansas similar to above reasons.
W. Virginia... swings back our way.

[jsw_81]

56. Kerry/Clark 348, Bush/Cheney 190

[jsw_81]

48. We won't take Colorado

But I'm confident that Kerry will win Louisiana if he puts Landrieu on the ticket, and Indiana if he selects Bayh.

[mouse7]

51. If Dumba keeps running 9/11 ads, all of them but Mississippi. n/t

[Lexingtonian]

52. sounds about right

I'd say that Colorado, West Virginia, and Louisiana are in practice out of reach. Missouri probably too. But it could be worth it to make Bush defend them. I'd need more polling data but Virginia could maybe also be made into a cash bleeder for Bush. It will be fun to see what Kerry campaigning in Texas does to poll numbers there, too.

The deal is that the Christian Right will make its final, desperate, play for power in these states and ones where our team will probably nonetheless prevail by a little bit again, like Iowa and Wisconsin and Minnesota.

It's interesting that Bush's team doesn't think that Arizona is in play. At least I didn't see it on their list of states being flooded with their ads.

But the biggies are going to be Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Florida again. Remember the days in 2002 and 2003 when Republicans were talking about being 'tired of gridlock' and deciding to 'change the dynamic'- become utterly dominant on the federal level? Now they're looking at the map and their shrinking proportion of the electorate and their increasingly shaky hold. 'Change the dynamic' could be achieve by November 2006...by Democrats....

[La_Serpiente]

53. Arizona is definetly in play this year

and Kerry has the upper hand in Nevada since he is opposed to the Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Facility there. Many Nevadans are opposed to it.

As for Arizona, it has trended Democratic these past few years. Sure, it has Kyl and McCain as its Senators, but Napolitano was recently elected as its governor AND it has an ever growing Latino population that traditionally supports the Democratic party. Richardson, who is the governor in New Mexico, could concentrate on voter outreach in both Arizona and New Mexico. However, the best person to conduct voter outreach in Arizona is Rep. Grijalva.

[bushwakker]

54. Don't forget Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey*

[DaveSZ]

60. Yes

Because of the Latino vote, I'm thinking Arizona is in play this year, and of course Nevada and New Mexico.


I still think Kerry screwed himself on the guns issue, and I disagree with him on that issue.