Examining the steaming entrails of the beast --

[saltpoint]

-- what outcome say ye for the primaries on Tuesday, good people?

[saltpoint]

1. No, this isn't a vegan vs. meat-eaters post. It's casual politics in a

serious time.

I'll go first. The least the Obama campaign can expect from Tuesday's outcome, IMO, is a mixed result, with Sen. Clinton winning big in some states and Sen. Obama winning big in others. In this scenario both campaigns can have much to cheer about and continue on to other states' contests in coming weeks.

If Senator Clinton wins in New York and New Jersey as expected, and adds California and one or both of Missouri and Minnesota, her camp will claim a big triumph and she wil be far more difficult to untrench as the likely nominee.

If Senator Obama wins in California, Missouri, Minnesota, Georgia, Delaware, Idaho, North Dakota, and possibly Alabama, he is the new frontrunner and will own every media headline for several days following.

The polling appears to be all over the place at the moment. Some are citing Sen. Clinton's national lead as increasing; others have it narrowing. In Feb. 5th states, recent polling shows tighter races but in many cases with huge Undecided percentages. There's no time on the calendar left to get a reliable track or trend on those Undecideds, especially when it's that large a number.

So what's needed is an unscientific poll. My cousin's husband a generation or two younger lives in Missouri and went to the Obama rally last night in St. Louis. It was his notion that the crowd was there not for the celebrity uplift but because they intended to show up to vote for the man on Tuesday. My source thinks that based on this, Obama will carry Missouri. That's wildly unscientific and anecdotal but there you have it.

[Occam Bandage]

2. Obama does better than expected in a few states. So does Clinton.

Both claim it's proof of a huge Super Tuesday "win."

[saltpoint]

3. Plausible. That outcome would place greater importance on the post-Feb 5th

states' primaries.

Which is ironic in a year when the primaries were so front-loaded.

[HughMoran]

4. looks like it's going to be a toss-up

Right now it's looking like 11-11 as far as winning states goes - pretty even.

[saltpoint]

5. It could. Both camps have put in the hours and toil and have a right

to hope for something to cheer about.

[newmajority]

6. In a surprising upset, Mike Gravel sweeps all 24 Super Tuesday states!!

And chooses Lee Mercer as all three of his running mates!!! :bounce: :bounce: :bounce:


Just thought I'd check and see who's awake out there :evilgrin:

Seriously though, as much as I'd like to see an Obama-lition of the contest and a crushing defeat to Team DLC, my gut feeling is that so called "Super" Tuesday will end in an Obama win, but not large enough to eliminate Hillary, so the primary rolls on, probably to the convention.

[saltpoint]

7. A Gravel-Mercer ticket would be virtually unstoppable, no question.

(Actually I really like Gravel.)

Hi, newmajority. Yes -- I think it could end with mixed results, but I'm not sure enough to say so. If the nomination race continues and goes all the way to Denver, then there's a chance for a lot of jostling and juggling and trade-off on the convention floor, and who knows what ticket we'd wind up with then.