Some internal numbers from Zogby re: CA, NJ, and MO

[book_worm]

“On the Democratic side, California, Missouri and New Jersey are so close. Obama’s lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).

In Missouri, Obama has solid leads in the St. Louis region (16 points), with Independents (7 points), young voters (16 points), and African Americans (62%-26%). He also leads among moderates and men. Clinton leads in Kansas City (7 points), in the Southwest (16 points), and among liberals (8 points), women (5 points), and among voters over 65 (25 points).

“Obama leads in both Northern and Southern New Jersey, among men, and among African Americans (74%16%), while Clinton again holds Hispanics (19 points), whites (10 points), moderates (8 points), liberals (8 points), Jews (22 points), women (9 points), and voters over 65.

“It is all about delegates and these numbers suggest that both candidates get respectable votes and a lot of delegates.”
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1444

CA: 45-41 Obama
MO: 44-43 Clinton
NJ: 43-42 Clinton
GA: 48-28 Obama

[gasoline highway]

1. Don't get too excited Obama supporters...

Unfortunately a lot of Californias voting was done through early ballots, we'd be letting ourselves down expecting a win. But I am expecting stellar results!

[NJSecularist]

3. Only 22% by both sides

This race will be decided on Tuesday, not by early ballots.

[Kittycat]

5. In addition, there was only a 5% gap 2 weeks ago.

He's only closed that gap since then.

[loveangelc]

7. How do you know this? Everyone has said 50% has already been cast...

[gasoline highway]

14. Yeah that's what i'm basing my info of off, that 50% of people have done absentee

[MadBadger]

6. There is a good chance that this includes early voting

Florida polls seemed to match the final results, and there was early voting too.

[JustinL]

18. wouldn't early voters be included?

Unless the pollsters had some way of targeting people who hadn't yet voted, wouldn't early voters be represented proportionately among the poll respondents?

[NJSecularist]

2. The internals don't look out of whack like numerous polls we've seen

It looks legit.

[lurky]

4. So Obama's getting liberals in the West

and Clinton is getting liberals in the NJ and MO. I guess liberals could swing this thing. Weird, man... I'm not used to being an important constituency. :D

[FrenchieCat]

8. Thanks.....

But still, polls, schmolls. :shrug:

[book_worm]

11. I know, but I'm addicted--good bad or indifferent.

[JustinL]

19. I know how you feel

I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas. I need polls to tide me over until Tuesday.:freak:

[lapfog_1]

9. Just a hunch, but MO is going to Obama, by a smidgen

CA, because of the likely early vote leaning for Clinton, will depend on turnout. Record turnout on Tuesday means Obama wins. Regular turnout for a primary... probably very close, maybe a tie.

But it doesn't really matter, since everything is proportional, and each candidate has a few states that they are definitely going to win... we won't know much of anything about the nomination. It's going to go on to the non-Super Tuesday states. Maybe even all the way to the convention. And then it comes down to super delegates and Edwards. And a very divided party.

[mihalevich]

12. I think Sw missouri is going the clintons

And that could swing the state. I'm going to do what I can to help Obama down hear... about 10% of the state lives around springfield.

[lapfog_1]

15. Spent the summers of my youth there...

water skiing and fishing at Table Rock lake.

Always liked it best in the early fall, when the leaves start to change.

Well, good luck there. Yeah, it wouldn't surprise me to see race being an issue with some folks there, even the Democrats.

And, a lot of folks there identify more with Arkansas than with St. Louis or Kansas City.

[Thrill]

10. I'm just excited by the new support and new voters for the Democrats

This is huge for Congress also. Obama in my opinion is doing big things for the party

[tekisui]

16. Yes, he is.

Obama has coattails. He is bringing a lot of new voters to the dance, and that is big. It is very helpful to the Senate, the House and local Dems.

[aquart]

17. Because otherwise they would have gone Republican this year.

Please. To have the balls to take credit for the rage at BushCo and the Republicans?

[tekisui]

21. Like Will Rogers said, "If god had wanted us to vote, he would have

given us candidates."

The enraged need someone to vote for. Someone that gets them off the couch.

[Cant trust em]

13. The divide between African Americans and Hispanics still holds true

how unfortunate.

[BootinUp]

20. Large undecided number in CA 15%

means that there is no leader indicated at all.