Nader now has 6%; hurts Kerry

[JHBowden]

This may be a dupe, but I just read this poll with Bush 45%, Kerry 45%, and Nader 6%. I can't believe over 10% of the people who support the liberals (6/50) are going to commit suicide again! :grr:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/040304/480/nyet22903042207


Note -- while the polls are spaced three months apart, Kerry has gotten a substantial surge over 2004 reflected in other polls where he leads Bush. However, when Nader is accounted for, we have a situation where the election is close enough to be stolen again like 2000.

[Uber Llama]

1. Pardon?

bush's numbers have gone down, and Kerry's numbers have gone up... but you say he is hurting Kerry?

[IndianaGreen]

10. That's the same way I interpret the chart.

If the chart is correct, Nader is making Kerry competitive with Bush.

In a 2-way race, Kerry trails Bush badly. On a 3-way race, Nader takes votes away from Bush.

[JHBowden]

12. That interpretation is questionable.

Republicans hate Nader; there is no way in hell they are supporting him. In other polls Kerry has a significant lead on Bush; however, when Nader is accounted for, the polls are close enough for Bush to steal again.

[IndianaGreen]

15. The AP numbers are quite clear

In a 2-way race, Bush trounces Kerry. In a 3-way race, Bush and Kerry are on a statistical tie.

If you want to discuss a poll other than the AP poll, you are welcome to it. But the AP numbers do not support your hypothesis!

[JHBowden]

16. Bush would beat Kerry in *October*.

I've seen other current polls where Kerry is winning from 4-10 points in head to head matchups. This AP poll shows a statistical tie with Nader in the race.

[IndianaGreen]

20. We were discussing the AP poll--Bush beating Kerry in January 2004

Like I said, your assertion about Nader hurting Kerry is not supported by the AP poll that you posted.

We are 8 months away from the election. For all I know, frontloading the primaries in order to have a presumptive nominee this far away from the election may well turn out to Terry McCauliffe's biggest blunder in a series of his blunders.

[JHBowden]

22. With Nader out of the race,

Kerry would be winning with a 4-8 point margin like other polls. Unless this is short-term frustration by Democrats whose candidates lost in the primary, it would be naive and somewhat stupid to ignore this development.

[IndianaGreen]

27. The poll reveals that many of the Nader voters are Indies & Republicans

From the story:

The poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday as Kerry captured nine of 10 Super Tuesday elections and claimed the nomination. Nightly results suggested that Kerry did not get a bounce from winning the nomination.

<snip>

In the poll, Nader was most likely to get the backing of young adults, independents and maybe a GOP voter.

Republican Virgil Ahlberg of Apison, Tenn., said he is seriously considering a vote for Nader.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/ap_poll_president

[59millionmorons]

18. Not really

There last poll was before Kerry started kicking ass in the primaries.

[IndianaGreen]

24. That's speculation

since there is no such data in this particular AP poll. You will have to look at some other poll that supports your assertion.

[lams712]

36. Kerry is leading Bush in most two-way polls

What people are not thinking about though, is the fact that several months ago Bush looked like a shoo-in for re-election, so these numbers are actually an improvement, and that more than half of those polled want Bush gone.


Of course, polls at this time of year are useless. A lot can happen in 8 months.

[59millionmorons]

2. Please dont

Please dont overeact to one poll of only 771 people. Nader will not even be on 80% of the ballots. And just yesterday the Pew poll has Kerry beating Bush 48-44.

[lancdem]

9. Exactly

In this poll, Kerry has cut a 17-point lead to 1 in two months.

[movonne]

3. It is still very early...maybe some of these people are unhappy

that their candidate didn't make it. And will change their minds down the road.

[Catholic Sensation]

4. it's the media coverage that ensued last week after Nader announced

that's all it is. Once they focus on bush and kerry, nader will get like .5% of the vote.

[LiberalBushFan]

14. I'd say they're more likely to give Nader as much coverage as possible

because they know his effect.

[cryofan]

30. but if the corporate media continues the coverage, then Nader will

....always have enough votes to keep Bush in the game.

The only way to stop this is to buy off nader. He should get the VP spot. That is one of the ways they do it in multiple party govts.

But maybe Nader would go for some other payoff? Some other spot in the govt? How about letting him help write the Democratic platform?

[NicoleM]

5. The election is a political lifetime away.

A kajillion things could happen that would swing the election one way or the other. It is way too early to get worked up over polls.

[BeyondGeography]

23. Thank you; let's pace ourselves, people!

[59millionmorons]

6. actually this poll shows Bush dropping and Kerry rising.

Ouch

[JHBowden]

7. See my note at the bottom.

eom

[KenLayedOff]

8. Do not worry

These are maybe victims to Kerry's primary wins. They will come around to ABB and put the past behind them. Remember..it's ABB or bust!

[anti-NAFTA]

11. Sigh. Should've thought of that when

you ostracized Gephardt, then laughed at Dean, and believed everything AOL Time Warner told you.

[Name removed]

13. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[anti-NAFTA]

17. Thanks for the inflammatory post.

Really nice of you.

[Name removed]

19. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[anti-NAFTA]

21. Again?

Why the harsh language? I don't attack you. Are you trying to provoke me or something?

[JHBowden]

25. "and believed everything AOL Time Warner told you."

Are these not fighting words?

[anti-NAFTA]

26. I don't think so.

Definitely not on the level of "go _____ yourself" and "I fart in your direction."

[JHBowden]

28. Hey, I supported Dean.

I'm not a tool of AOL-Time Warner either. If we want to get stupid, fine, we'll be stupid.

[cryofan]

31. Amen Amen Amen

I like Kerry; he's OK. But he does not seem to be all that interested in a real progressive agenda.

[mzmolly]

29. The problem as I see it is $$ ... we will be trying to compete with Bush

financially and consider Naders *cough* support as well. I dont know that Nader voters would vote for Kerry, and I respect their choice NOT to, but I'd like US to take him seriously as an opponent this time round...

I think it's time to form a 527 dedicated to "outing" Nader

People need to know who he is this time...

[OneBlueSky]

32. that 6% for Nader is pure bs . . .

how do I know? . . . common sense tells me so . . .

[Guaranteed]

33. Leadership, leadership, leadership.

I can't say it enough, but few listen.

[liberalmike27]

34. Hmmmmm.....

I have to say, we had a guy who could have blunted the Nader campaign, what was his name. Oh yea, Howard Dean. We in the Dean group were famous for saying we think Dean has a good chance to win, as he can keep the leftmost in our party interested, and bring in Green Party voters, and that Nader most likely wouldn't run if Dean were the nominee.

Do you folks really think it just a coincidence that Nader got in just after Dean stopped actively running for president? I sent him an email immediately after Dean withdrew, urging him to run again, knowing the issues he pushed would be dropped, since Dean was no longer running. Four days later upon receiving Newsweek in the mail, I read that Nader was getting a slew of emails begging him to run. Who do you suppose these emails were from, just after Dean withdrew after being horribly treated, by the party he was running within.

You all had a chance to listen, either to Dean people, and jump on his bandwagon, or listen to the corporate media, who was telling how "electable" Kerry was. We tried to convince you he wasn't so electable, but you wanted to listen to GE, to AOL, you wanted to listen to the News Corp, who were also contributing to Kerry's campaign. Now that what we were saying is coming to fruition, what are you complaining about. You chose to listen to the corporate media's lies, who are seldom right, and who's purpose it to fool people into voting for candidates on both sides, who are most sympathetic to corporate purposes. You see, Dean didn't measure up, so you saw a few thousand views of the now famous "scream" speech, the real nuclear detonation that terminated Dean's chances, that robbed all the money poor folks like me contributed to his campaign, that vaporized much of his support based on the lying characterization of the speech.

You made your bed, you've got Kerry, and now we have Nader in the race. Live with it, you got your Vietnam guy, and your protester, and Nader's in the race. We tried to tell you, but you listened to GE. Hey doesn't GE make jet engines and other DOD equipment?

[Zinfandel]

35. If Nader gets over 1% this time, he should throw a parade...he's an

ASSHOLE!

[shivaji]

37. The only thing matters to me is that * moron * idiot * chimpy *

dumb ass Bush junior does not end up beating our
mr. "electable" Kerry. It is one thing to lose to
a polished and intelligent opponent, quite another
to lose to a idiotic moronic bumbler.