One simple question: Why?

[Astarho]

Why do you think Kerry will win or Kerry will lose against Bush? Just give your reasons and try to keep the flames turned to low ( I know :crazy: )

And just to make it clear, those that feel Kerry will lose does not mean they "want Bush to win" . I think it's safe to say everyone here wants Bush out of the WH.

[in_cog_ni_to]

1. I think Kerry will win.

I just don't like the man.

[EXE619K]

11. I love your honesty!

Couldn't have said it better meself!

:thumbsup:

[littlejoe]

2. Kerry has a mountain of truths on his side.

He's a fighter, much in the same vein as my hometown hero Harry Truman. He will give the republicans pure hell. Bush can run, but he won't be able to hide.

[Uzybone]

3. I think Kerry will win

because he is a clear alternative to the failed policies of Bush. I also think many who voted for Bush in 2000 will vote democrat because they now remember how relatively sane and prosperous things were when a Democrat was in the WH.

[slinkerwink]

4. I think it'll be a very very narrow win or a narrow loss

because of the front-loaded primary season so Kerry wasn't reasonably vetted, and his flaws will supercede his strong points when they come out in the press nonstop. I think we're taking a huge risk with Kerry, who had three horribly mistaken votes such as IWR, Patriot Act, and NCLB. Kerry's done some things right in responding to Bush's attacks, but he can't be on the defensive all the time. He has to go on the offensive instead of on the defensive. There's also the personality deficit to consider with Kerry. He's too aloof, too patrician, and....*sigh* I don't think he has the likeability factor in the general election because in the years past, voters vote on likeability in the general election.

[Zomby Woof]

25. you must have never seen Kerry's ads these past few months

He has been all over Bush's sorry ass. The recent one is really good, highlighting the job losses. Not a damn thing defensive about those.

Plus, Kerry was the one, back when he was languishing in the polls, who said Bush was "fucking up" and REFUSED to apologize for it.

Other than that, the 'patrician' and 'aloof' arguments are classist and without basis in fact. As for 'likeability', he sure cleaned up in the primaries.

[slinkerwink]

31. they didn't choose him on likeability---they chose him on electability

[DuctapeFatwa]

5. bush will win because he has more money and because rightly or wrongly

there is a perception that bush can be counted on to kill more Muslims than Kerry can.

[mdmc]

14. well said

:kick:

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

23. Sigh. Is it really down to that?

If Bush is re-elected, do you predict another slaughter of people who 'look Muslim' like what happened after 911? Sorry, I've been at another board where my faith has been misrepresented and maligned, and I'm a bit down.

[mdmc]

26. I'm sorry about that

I love your faith! :~)

[DuctapeFatwa]

29. You can count on it whoever is elected. That's what a crusade is about

And America is about the crusade, until its properties around the globe, or as we terrorists call them, "other countries" get tired of having their citizens kidnapped and disappeared while they sit around waiting for the buzz of the bombers over THEIR capitals.

[Walt Starr]

6. I think Kerrry will lose badly

I believe his record in the Senate will be used against him so badly there is no way whatsoever he stands any chance of winning. It's already started and "waffler" will seem like a nice term compared to how they paint him by November.

I predict at most, he'll win five states.

[polpilot]

7. Kerry will win 7 states. Dean's 'Bush-lite' will resonate in the TerryFans

[MoonRiver]

8. Well, I DO NOT think it's safe to say everyone here wants Bush* out.

I definitely think there are freepers posing to discredit the Dem nominee in our midst. But, more ominously, other types (Naderites, anarchists, etc.) on DU think a total melt down of the US political system, leading to violent revolution is what's "best" for this country. I am starting to fear these individuals as much as *. He's using them and they are blindly compliant.
:scared:

[mdmc]

9. Well, whats changed since Gore?

I ran into a Kerry supporter that supported Bush's invasion of Iraq. It was a good thing that we acted, even if it was just to remove Saddam from power.
No Democrat, not Gore, Kerry, or Lieberman (well maybe Lieberman) would have went to war in 2003 and removed Saddam from power.

If you think that the war was a good idea, then Bush is your candidate.
Bush has the bucks to prop up his simple message.
Sheeple will buy that Kerry has supported everything that he criticizes Bush on (Kerry voted for NAFTA, PATRIOT, war, NCLB).

But, there is no hiding that Bush is bad. Kerry has a good chance, perhaps better than Gore's in 2000.

[slinkerwink]

12. I agree with you on that---I just don't feel confident about the chances

of Kerry to win.

[mdmc]

17. we agree on a lot but

I actually like Kerry. I would have preferred Kerry to Dean if Kerry had opposed Bush. Other than that, we have similar views.
Kerry can win. I think that he will get about half of Nader's 2000 votes, and that Dean, if he teams up with Al Sharpton, will help GOTV for an extra couple of points here and there.

We can win. Kerry can axe the DNC chair, beat Bush, and help turn America around.

[slinkerwink]

19. I don't know about that, and I want Kerry to win, but I just see too

many flaws with him.

[brokensymmetry]

10. I think Kerry will win.

Now please don't take this wrong - it isn't meant as a slam against soon-to-be President Kerry - but Kerry will win because * has destroyed the budget, the economy, and the job market. This is far more important than any particular quality that Kerry has.

As a sitting pResident with a lot of money, the election was *'s to lose - and, frankly, he blew it big time.

The challenge, I think, will be to take the mess that * made and turn it around in just 3 years. That's going to be a very big job.

[Uzybone]

13. Some very telling posts in this thread already

I think Ill bookmark it.

[EXE619K]

15. Demos win, Repubs lose.

or Repubs win, Demos lose.

It's morning in America,

Where you can be your best.

If you have a valid credit card,

and can pass a urine test.

:D

[Mairead]

36. ooOOOoo good one! (nt)

[saltpoint]

16. The Democratic ticket will carry --

-- all of the states Gore/Lieberman carried.

Except Florida, which reverts to red.

Democrats reclaim Ohio, New Hampshire, West Virginia, and Missouri, and are competitive in Arizona.

If Clark or Bumpers is VP, Democrats also win Arkansas and maybe two other southern states.

The flag-waving hokum of these recent Bush ads won't win back the large parts of the population he has alienated.

Democrats win in November.

[lastknowngood]

18. Kerry can't win. the shrub has the entire media world on his side

for him and infinite amounts of money. Remember his 200 mil is only the beginning every right wing hate group in this country will be spending millions to keep the shrub in power. I'm originally from Arkansas and just returned from the area. There are no jobs and the economy is in the toilet but every church has a keep marriage between one man and one woman sign up and every preacher is preaching it as gods will. They will all vote for the shrub despite the real issues because the rethugs will prey on their simplicity and prejudices. That means no souther or Midwestern states. You can count on the bible belt going 100% for the shrub. Also the teenage boys can't wait to join the military and kick some Arab but. Kerry has thousands of votes which will be used to manipulate his record and paint him as an evil "liberal". Then of course there is the 4 months he spent in Vietnam and then came back and protested the war with the original right wing red flag Jane Fonda that will be used to ensure the Vietnam vet vote. Something I know about as I was in the army during that time but was to smart to go there. Most Vietnam vets hate the war protesters more than the devil himself, they don't realize how many lives were saved because of them. Then of course we have Kerry running to the "middle" already before he has consolidated the base, which I see as a clear mistake. There are a lot of angry people within the party on the left and they need a reason to stay engaged, Kerry's monotone presentation and abandonment of the talking points he took from Dean as soon as Dean was out of the running have hurt him. If he doesn't start to believe and passionately state some of the basic beliefs of the party he will lose some to fringe candidates. I say these things as someone who is not impressed with him but someone who will pull the leaver for him in November. I strongly believe the reason the party is losing in elections is because the party has compromised itself out of standing for any issue. It's not that it is not expanding it's base it is not holding it's base at elections. More and more people are giving up because the candidates aren't making a clear stand for civil rights, workers rights, human rights, freedom, social security, Medicare, Medicaid and against corporate special interests.
The DLC is only interested in the corporate interests and has abandoned every real democratic issue. Just my opinion and it is from a 51 year old democrat who has voted democrat in every election in my life so far.

[MurikanDemocrat]

20. I don't think it is safe to say that people here don't want Bush to win

There has been a clear desire by a small but vocal minority of a certain candidates supporters that they would like Kerry to lose the election in Nov out of revenge because their candidate did not get the nomination. Petty yes, but true.

There is even a poll taken here in the last week showing that approx 25% WANT Kerry to lose in Nov. *sigh*.

Now to your question - I think it will be a close election and probably the nastiest one we'll ever see from the Rove/Bush camp. I don't put ANY dirty, nasty, low-life, illegal, cheap, tawdry bullshit tactic past these people. We got a taste of what's to come with the Drudge release a couple weeks back. That's JUST the kind of shit Rove would pass along to Drudge.

Look for an Arkansas project against Kerry over the next 8 months. Any unsubstantiated bullshit without a shred of evidence to back it up. Kind of like some of the BS Kerry attacks we've seen right here in GD Primary, but worse.

[janx]

24. M.D., I wouldn't put too much stock in the DU polls.

They're a tempting target for a lot of people. ;-)

[joshcryer]

30. And hey, on the petty ones, I vote the worst way.

Just to skew the results because people look at everything so blakc and white.

[MurikanDemocrat]

32. I suppose you're right. I often suspected people lie in those polls

anyway. Like vote the opposite of how they really feel because they don't like what the truth would reveal in the poll.;-)

[Astarho]

21. My thoughts

I think Kerry will lose. They are already trotting out the "Massechusetts Liberal" line. The media will repeat it over and over and I don't think Kerry can really defend against it (he IS from Mass. and as his supporters proudly point out he has the most liberal record in the Senate). If he tries to avoid the issue like he did in the debate, he will fall into Bush's attack as a waffler.

And the constant repitition of attacks such as "stiff" "patrician" and "elitist" ad nauseum won't help either.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

22. Kerry will win

I've heard from too many people of all political stripes. Most don't like Kerry (especially the Republicans) but they say he will be better than Bush, and that's all that matters.

[Zomby Woof]

27. I won't say "will" or "won't"

Just that he can. But a few things...

One is that is WAY too early to know what will go down. Remember how different the race was in December. Who would have guessed Kerry would get the nomination back then, other than his most faithful supporters?

Two, more than a year ago, I floated the "Massachusetts liberal" line on here for the same reasons you did - I knew that was exactly what the GOP and media would do. I also predicted it would be effective. But I think I was wrong. Why? Kerry still leads Bush in about every major poll - even right-leaning polls like CNN/USA Today, and this is a different political landscape than it was in 1988, when that term had more sting. It may be becoming as irrelevant as "Rockefeller Republican" was used as an insult against the opposition a few generations ago. Again, his lead in the polls now is subject to change for the reasons cited above - there is still so very very long to go. 8 months is a century in political time.

I am maintaining optmism that Bush will lose. Too much is at stake that goes beyond who voted for what on IWR or NCLB (Kennedy was snookered into that too, yet no one excoriates him). It goes into who will be appointed to SCOTUS and other high level benches, how we can reduce the deficit again and get back into surpluses. How we can adapt to an increasingly post-industrial economy. It involves repairing our reputation with allies who are loath to endure another 4 years any more than we are.

I think it is safe to say that no matter who the Democrats put forward, the GOP would smear each with equal relish and character malignment. Clinton prevailed partially because he could deflect the onslaught, and he got hit with accusations just as slimy as "Massachusetts liberal" was to Dukakis. Kerry will respond differently than Clinton, but just as strongly, and better than Dukakis on both counts. But safe to say, if it were DK, Dean, Clark, Edwards, or the rest, the Repubs would find a way to assign an equally dismissive propaganda label.

So for now, if Kerry will win, the reason why is because of:

1. The economy
2. Bush will continue to show he is out of touch
3. Iraq will worsen, as will other hot spots
4. Kerry will fight back on all smears

If he won't win, it will be because Bush will benefit from lucky breaks (maybe an upturn in the economy), more than because people will perceive Kerry as a bad ol' Massachusetts liberal.

8 months has a way of making ALL of our predictions look foolish though.

I think some more Muddy Waters is in order...

[bitchkitty]

28. The only way he wins it if it's

so close that they can steal it. And they will try, believe it.

I'm afraid that it's going to be close, because Kerry is so unappealing.

[OneBlueSky]

33. all I know is that "Bush fatigue" gets stronger and stronger . . .

with each passing day . . . for those who have long been fatigued, it sometimes evolves into "Bush rage" . . . with nine months to go, there's plenty of time for more and more people to see through His Shrubness to the truth that he's an idiot . . . that is all . . .

[lams712]

34. Kerry can win because the left won in 2000....

...(Gore/Nader 52% to W'48%) and things have only gotten worse in the country since then. There is a lot of discontent in the USA. Kerry can tap into that without moving too far to the right or center. He has (despite some crappy votes on important issues) the liberal credentials that can unite the left (depsite all the crap being bandied about at DU) when the time comes.

All of this will depend on if Kerry will let the DLC call his shots. If that's the case, then left/liberal vote might be divided like in 2000.

[Desertrose]

35. I want bush out....but

I am not sure Kerry is the man...

too many things that he can't call bush out on cause he has either gone along with it or is too connected.

The serving in VN thing won't make a difference....I see Kerry's background as too similar to bush's...and to be honest...I do NOT like that they belong to the same "secret society"...whether its a frat or more...it just makes me a wee tad bit concerned...will this secret oath supercede the POTUS oath? well, we don't know cause its all ...you know....shhhh....secret.

:shrug:

Peace
DR

[Mairead]

37. "oo many things that he can't call bush out on"

That's my sense too, DR. He's going to get the 'Massachusetts tax-and-spend liberal' label wrapped around his neck while at the same time being faced with either keeping silent about his recent voting record or claiming he was duped by the sorriest excuse for a president in modern times (if not in the history of the nation).

He might still win, if people hate Bush enough, but I certainly wouldn't be willing to bet money on it.

[sangh0]

38. Kerry will win

because he can nuetralize Bush*'s supposed strong points (ex. 9/11, Iraq, national security, military service and spending, credibility, morality) , and stomp Bush* on Bush*'s weak points (all domestic issues)