Anyone predicting that dems will lose the Congress this year

[cali]

doesn't know their ass from their elbow.

All the indicators point to significant dem gains:

The Democratic party has been gaining registered voters; the repuke party losing them.

Dems have been turning out in primaries in far greater numbers than repukes.

Indies have largely gone with dems.

28 repuke reps have chosen to retire. Quite a few of them in competitive districts

Dems are working the 50 state strategy hard and putting up candidates just about everywhere.

The repukes have 22 Senate seats to defend, the dems only 11.


I'm so sick of hearing the horseshit about how dems will lose the Congress when we're posed to make gains equivalent or greater to those we made in 2006. It's just ignorant.

[UALRBSofL]

1. When I saw the header I was going to disagree with you

But your post is absolutely spot-on. The fact that independents are turning out in mass is making all the difference.

[MadHound]

2. Yet Congressional approval ratings have tanked, and are worse than Bush's

Generally when that happens it leads to a "kick the bastards out" sort of mentality that scythes across the entire Congress.

That will make a Dem majority in Congress much less of a slam dunk that you think. In fact it puts most of the Congressional races up in the air.

[Perky]

5. They are always in the crapper...

GOP is not going to get off the mat for another three years.

[cali]

8. Congressional ratings are invariably low when the entire body is

used in polls. But in individual districts it's almost always a different story. That's one major reason why it's so hard to dislodge reps. It's the old story of "I hate all other congress critters, but I like mine just fine".

The difference this year is that 28 repuke reps are retiring. Why do you think this is? Do you actually think they simply want more family time? Get real. They see the writing on the wall. Sorry, it's clear you don't know much about the politics of Congressional races. Let me give you just two examples of pukes who retired who will be replaced with dems: Tom Reynolds of NY and Davis of VA. In the former district, Reynolds barely held on two years ago. In the latter, Davis is in a district that's now blue, and his wife got shellacked there in her re-election campaign for the State House in 2007. Want some more specifics of repukes who won't make it? Chris Shays: He's a dead political man walking. Chris Shays is the last repuke rep in New England and he represents Fairfield County which has turned very blue over the last few years. Here's yet another: Heather Wilson's seat will almost certainly be filled by a dem. She's running for Senate in NM- where she's double digits behind Tom Udall. And guess what? He'll be replaced by a dem.

Now I've given you specifics. Can you do the same?

[tekisui]

3. It will be a New Majority!

Significant gains in both the House and Senate!

[Perky]

4. I will Take Obama...Huge turnouts and more seats in both Houses. thank you.

Hillay won't provide coattails she will supply wedgies.


She will beatany of the candidata but thre will be a lot more ticket splitting particularly in GOP districts with moderate Republicans incumbents.


We have a chance at every CD from Augusta, Maine to Madison to Champaign to Norfolk. All Blue.

[WillyT]

7. LOL !!! - The Wedgie Candidate !!!

:evilgrin:

[jefferson_dem]

6. As long as Hillary and "reverse coattails" are not in effect...

we should easily expand our advantage.

[izzie]

9. I never know what will happen until after the election

After Fa. I am not so sure I know even then. I would say that one can see a movement world wide in people wanting to rule them self. People just do not like it when some one else thinks they can do it better for them. Have to live in a cave to not see that. I think I do know where the GOP puts their belief. THey, the GOP. seems to have found a lot of people who like others telling them what to do. I do not see how they do it, as I could not even get my children to do what I wanted.

[terrya]

10. Welcome to the Senate, Al Franken!

Anyone who says that the Democrats will lose seats this November is deluded. Several Republican Senate seats are very, very vulnerable (including George W. Bush asskisser Norm Coleman in Minnesota). We have an excellent chance of increasing our majorities in both the House and Senate. And we will.

The new Democratic President will have a strong Democratic Congress to work with.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

11. This is the year we should make sure we have competition in every Congressional race

I'm sick of the Arkansas Democratic Party not putting in the time and money to oust our repuke conman. I am hoping that we have a strong Democrat to go against Boozman and oust him this year.

[robcon]

12. The only way we'd lose Congress would be if impeachment hearings started.

Since Pelosi thankfully will prevent that, I think we'll increase our lead in both houses.

[PeaceNikki]

13. It'd be REALLY tough (if not, impossible) to lose ground on either side

Senate
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2008#Predictions

In the Senate Democrats possess a field advantage in 2008, needing to defend only 12 seats, while Republicans must defend 23. In addition, five Republicans and no Democrats have announced that they are retiring. The open seat gap between the parties is the biggest in 50 years.

House
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_elections%2C_2008

Shortly after the November 2006 election, Scott Elliott of ElectionProjection.com said that the Democratic majority would be tough to beat - at most the GOP could take back fourteen House seats - two short of a majority. InTrade.com, the only betting site currently offering odds on control of the House, puts the odds of the Democrats retaining control at about 80% as of mid-November 2007.

Conservative columnist Robert Novak wrote in May 2007 that he believes there are at least a few House seats that were won by Democrats in 2006 "solely because of GOP corruption," and that such seats would be "the most likely to return to the Republican column in 2008." He also argues that "a continued sour mood over the Iraq War could produce another massive Republican defeat in 2008 that makes 2006 look tame by comparison. Republicans in Washington generally concede that the continued presence of U.S. troops in Iraq by next November could mean disaster for the party;" However, he qualifies this by noting that in "previous elections, major House gains by either party have always been followed by losses in the next election."

Associated Press wrote an article titled, "House GOP fear fallout from ethics cases". After the 9/11 attacks the Republican Party branded itself as the party of President George W. Bush. Various ethics issues now taint Bush and the GOP. With House Republicans actively protecting the Bush administration in Congressional hearings and numerous Republicans under investigation the voters may decide to punish Republican candidates at the ballot box.